Lawyer. Banker. Views my own.
Frankfurt/Main
- Tweets 28,371
- Following 2,174
- Followers 25,819
- Likes 55,159
Okay, everyone's calling 5% the 'new normal.' You know what, though? Credit markets and debt don’t give a flying f*ck about your narrative! 5% or more over a prolonged period will cause a great deal of pain.
1
2
13
1,161
🚩 The bond market has been sending a crystal-clear message for weeks: the regime has shifted, but not everyone has gotten the message yet. Pain ahead!
3
18
1,238
Oops, here we go again. Third straight quarter of gate limits at Apollo; redemption pressure is structural. Toxic ingredient: Fed rate hikes! In short: $1.8tn direct lending market, priced for a world that no longer exists. What could possibly go wrong!?
6
13
1,168
Ouch, Germany! Berlin swings hard left, the neighboring state swings hard AfD. Fire and ice. Politically and economically wrecked. Friedrich Merz: weakest chancellor ever. AfD: strongest force in national polls. Europe can't afford a broken Germany. Scheiße!
1
4
29
1,561
Holy moly! Saudi Arabia: ZERO oil to Europe in October. Hormuz bypass pipeline is down; Red Sea route under attack too, both routes gone. Brace for an oil shock.
5
28
8,681
ECB, Fed, now BoJ to 1.25%, highest since '95. Coordinated tightening at this pace hasn't happened in years (more to come). Liquidity draining fast. This cycle deserves more attention than it's getting.
3
2
29
14,991
⚠️ US 10Y at 5%: Duration losses accelerate across fixed income books. Refinancing costs rise for leveraged corporates and private credit vehicles already under redemption pressure. Equity valuations lose their discount-rate cushion. Mortgage and consumer credit tighten further.
3
18
1,224
🇩🇪 Diesel at €2.41/L, petrol (E10) at €2.28/L; both up sharply this month; ripping through logistics costs, manufacturing costs, every small business running a fleet, and it's going straight into inflation. Note: if Germany gets into trouble, Europe gets into trouble!
3
4
23
1,608
You’d better fix the bond market quickly, otherwise...
- Equity valuation pressure
- Mortgage/credit rate spillover
- Corporate refinancing squeeze
- Emerging market capital outflows
- Widening credit spreads
- Pension/insurance funding gaps
- Global contagion
1
2
21
1,539
Welcome to the US bond market! The safest asset in the world is currently pricing in doubt about the safest asset in the world.
3
5
41
1,728
Higher for longer oil = higher for longer inflation = higher for longer Fed pressure = higher for longer bond yields. Next up: credit spreads blow out, refis get brutal, duration risk gets punished, and the "soft landing" trade quietly turns into a liquidity trap.
2
4
24
1,612
⚠️ Anthropic and OpenAI bankers are chasing investment-grade ratings before revenue models are even proven. (cheap debt on unproven cash flows). The last time fundamentals took a back seat to ratings was 2007/08. Watch this!
1
9
21
1,257
Simple math: rich people pulling back on handbags today means everyone else pulling back on everything tomorrow.
16
19
128
9,371
Ouch, 44% voted for the AfD (Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt). Germany has just turned more right-wing. The easiest way to minimise the shift to the right in Europe would be for the established parties to simply do their job. It’s as simple as that!
17
4
36
3,261
Reality check! Bathla: $2.5bn owed, 40+ lenders, now collapsed. Investors are already pulling funding. That's contagion, not an isolated default; more over-leveraged names are coming. Rising rates will strip away the last cover for bad underwriting. In short: the ice is cracking.
1
6
26
8,380
