Founder and CIO at Forager Funds Management. Likes assets plays, cigar butts and anything else cheap.
Sydney, Australia
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- Followers 8,383
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Note to all those focussed on the $MGH buyback, they have approval to buy back up to 20% of the register, not 10%. Passed it at the recent AGM
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The old Titomic ($TTT). Roughly $100M of cumulative losses. Umpteen dozen promotional announcements promising future riches every year since the 2018 IPO.
Q2 cash receipts: $1.5m
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Hard to know what to say other than wow. In the middle of a regulatory review, ASX erroneously tags TPG Telco as TPG the private equity company that is taking over Infomedia (IFM)! Oops
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What's the gap? I think the QPA and what the insurance company was paying them are roughly the same. In case, the language was pretty clear on the call. Doesn't make it true, of course.
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One of my hated capital allocation moves by $DMP; the old unfranked divvy backed by a fully-underwritten DRP. Otherwise known as "send your shareholders a tax bill without sending them any cash"
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Most of Bigtincan's response to our letter doesn't need a follow up. Read ours, read theirs, make up your own mind. This "Free Cash Flow Positive" point, though? I couldn't help myself foragerfunds.com/news/follow…
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Shareholders in $SGR must be happy to see Robbie Cooke's $5m in cash remuneration in the 2024 financial year. Nice to see some of the $750m cap raise go to a good home
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I see Blackwattle changed the LinkedIn post after coming under fire.
1. It's a good initiative. The industry needs to do more and we should welcome anything that helps
2. Lecturing everyone else when your investment team is 13 males was tone deaf. The 2nd post is better
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Here is a recording of our Virtual Roadshow recording. If you want to skip my boring stuff on investment philosophy, jump to the 14 min mark.
youtube.com/watch?v=3i5siY_w…
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Our man @forager_gareth dishing up some sage advice on the role cash should play in your portfolio youtu.be/IImspYcwO9U
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The market is now saying Gavin Newsom almost favourite to be the democratic candidate at the upcoming election. Wild.
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I get that they are desperate but this is some serious money $SGR is throwing at Steve McCann. $2.5m base + $2.5m sign-on bonus + $2.5m guaranteed STI + $5m performance rights + guaranteed bonus for FY26 too
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No more bids. No more offers. Last day of trading and the end of an era $FOR.AX today. She will be an unlisted, open-ended fund from next week
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So this stock, $CKRN, was up 400% last night. It has a market cap of $12m. Yep, that's an "m". The market cap was sub $3m at the start of the day.
More than A$1bn of shares traded in the session ...
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This Dubber presentation is wild. In addition to accusing the MD and a Melbourne law firm of stealing $26.6m, the tax office hasn't been paid either! To be fair to them, a company that has burned $300m in operating losses deserves a bit of leeway? $DUB.AX
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Downer seems to be blaming its auditor, KPMG, for at least some of its deficiencies. Not sure how many audit firms will be keen on the gig? $DOW
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You have to give it to them - no one can accuse Australia's spruikers of being unwilling to adapt!
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LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER: This is your final chance to register for our Fund Update Webinar tomorrow at 12pm. Want to hear more about the eventful end to 2023 and how the team are positioning the portfolios going into 2024? Register Now: bit.ly/4aO2Rok
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Japanese companies are facing a major technology transition as they convert many of their processes from hard copy to digital.
In this clip, Harvey details the opportunity developing in this nationwide shift.
For more, listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/3R280Af
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Harvey Migotti and I recently returned from an industrials conference in Chicago.
In this clip, Harvey details what he learned about the temperature of the US economy from meeting with company management teams.
For more, listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/3R280Af
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Our October Monthly Report for the Forager International Shares Fund is available now. In it, we share one UK bank we like that is producing a similar profit to CBA, at one-third of its market cap.
Read it here: bit.ly/3QVIuxA
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Do rates stay higher from here? Prepare for both says @forager_gareth.
In Episode 23 of Stocks Neat, Gareth and I discuss why higher rates are good for the world (and which stocks can do well).
Listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/40iw71H
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The recent macro environment has led to a great deal of pessimism in the UK. But we love the opportunities that we’re finding there.
Here, Portfolio Manager, Gareth Brown discusses an example of one UK company he likes.
Listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/40iw71H
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mmmmm, one thing I will say about the small-cap wasteland is that there don't seem to be many consequences for promising one thing and delivering something completely different. This time last year they were looking forward to "another record EBITDA result in 2023"
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Nice. Maybe too much value on one line in a PR announcement though? It's a long way from what they reported last year to $5m of npat. $20m of the $12m EBITDA came from Webcentral
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On October 25th at 12pm we will be hosting our September Fund Update Webinar.
Join us, to hear Portfolio Managers Gareth Brown, Alex Shevelev and me, discuss the September quarter results and our outlook on across our funds.
Register now: bit.ly/3PQYKyj
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On October 25th at 12pm we will be hosting our September Fund Update Webinar.
Join us, to hear PM's Gareth Brown, Alex Shevelev and me, discuss the September quarter results and our outlook on some current opportunities across our funds.
Register now: bit.ly/3PQYKyj
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Nuclear energy is gaining in acceptance as a form of clean energy.
In episode 22 of Stocks Neat, Harvey and I sit down to discuss what drew us to the sector in 2021 and our view on the space going forward.
Listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/3t273zl
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With the spot uranium price up almost 27% so far in 2023 there is not much hotter right now than Uranium.
In the latest episode of Stocks Neat, Harvey and I sit down to discuss what might be next for the sector.
Listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/3t273zl
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#GLP1 inhibitors are the latest craze to take hold of markets. In this episode of Stocks Neat, Gareth and I discuss the growing trend of wild market swings that could present opportunities for active investors
Listen to the full episode to hear more:bit.ly/44xQSqJ
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In the latest episode of Stocks Neat, Gareth and I discuss the mounting evidence supporting #GLP1 drugs as an effective treatment for obesity. But how will it will impact markets and society from here?
Listen to the full episode to find out: bit.ly/44xQSqJ
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Plenty going on under the "underlying" line at $HLS. "lease asset impairments" - nice way to manufacture some lower future lease payments through the P&L.
(aside - two good valuable assets in this business that have been mismanaged - some encouraging signs in today's result)
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55 board meetings! I'm nominating Tyro for the hardest-working board of the year award $TYR
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Unemployment is going to tick up. Half of the fixed-rate mortgages are still to roll over. And the savings rate is nearing long-term lows
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Enero's golden goose is out of eggs. Now the poor performance of the rest of the business and capital misallocation elsewhere will be clear. Sad to see after previous management put so much effort into fixing it the first time around $EGG (disc: not held)
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Over the past five years, small cap stocks have underperformed their large cap counterparts by a record margin. In our view, this is a mounting opportunity for investors in this part of the market.
In the clip below, I discuss the idea further with @strawmaninvest's Andrew Page.
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Not sure I have seen this before. You pay retention bonuses when the share price is down and performance bonuses when the share price is up. Why not just call it a salary?
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I get about US$5.40 per barrel as the net premium if you use mid '25 as an expiry estimate, so roughly US$25m fair value. *very rough calcs, just thinking conceptually
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I think the "small treat" is important. Also a big % of the business is ex Australia. But I don't know tbh, I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was negative lfl. In this inflation environment that is going to crunch margins. We recorded this back in Jan youtube.com/watch?v=DeBZEE-N…
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Also, a lot of current sales are meeting old orders. I thought this quote was pretty interesting ....
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Uh oh $PRN 👀
"Future Focused Investment is a commitment to invest in the long-term evolution of Perenti, focused on investments beyond business-as-usual investment"
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On the back of the best cattle and beef prices ever experienced, $AAC generates $67m of operating profits on $1.6bn of net assets ... that's farming for you
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This quote about Fred Goodwin of RBS fame really stuck with me and is true of most large corporates. Qantas would be in a mostly similar place with or without Joyce
'Okay, without being fantastic': Does this quote from @ForagerSteve neatly sum up Alan Joyce's career as Qantas CEO? abc.net.au/news/2023-05-02/q… And will Vanessa Hudson be the evolution after Joyce's revolution? My analysis with @Peter_F_Ryan #ausbiz
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We're looking for a recent university graduate to join our team in Sydney. Know any smart youngsters looking to start an investment career? More details via this link au.linkedin.com/jobs/view/gr…
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If Sydney wants to have a crack at being a world marathon major, they might need to find another km ...
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Some interesting charts in the latest RBA Financial Stability Report:
1. 38% of mortgages have more than 24 months buffer on repayments
2. 15% of mortgagees cannot refinance their loan due to assessability tests at the current rate
It's a proper barbel with trouble at one end
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Bit odd that none of the Aussie healthcare stocks see fit to announce the new Medicare indexation. This is buried on the MBSOnline site - apparently posted Tuesday. 3.6% is meaningful ... and explains why I was getting bid for $IDX yesterday
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Interesting the numbers have been changed to $110k and double ... the numbers didn't make any sense
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Time for Enero to spin off OB Media I reckon. $EGG's 51% stake is now generating ALL of Enero's net profit. More than $50m of annual npat from a marketing tech business - what's that worth? Meanwhile management doing their best to waste it all on expensive acquisitions
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#CoalTwitter waiting for their massive divvies ... feeling a bit like English and Fell Swoop looking for the finish line in that most famous TJ Smith youtube.com/watch?v=oUwSLyZV…
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In Elders' defence, it is fair to argue all of that information is public. But it does astonish me how far public market investors are behind reality in ag markets. Just call my dad .... or the MLA publishes cattle prices daily
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$MP1 is still "worth" almost a billion Aussie dollars. I don't get it. Can someone paint me a picture of how this is ever going to justify that valuation?
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I'm going the early crow and calling this one of the great Sydney summers. After bushfires, lockdowns and floods, we needed it, but it has been truly special
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I saw a Citi is today suggesting concerns about the Australian consumer are overblown. As Gaston and I explain in this video, an $80bn increase in interest costs needs to come from somewhere and the savings rate doesn't have much to give youtube.com/watch?v=DeBZEE-N…
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This week I joined David Thornton on Livewire Markets' The Rules of Investing podcast. Tune it to get my thoughts on the past, the future and why finding good companies isn't enough. livewiremarkets.com/wires/st…
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There is about $1.5tr in cash and deposits that will certainly benefit, but that is heavily skewed towards richer folk who have a lower propensity to spend. There is $2.7tr of household debt on the other side of the ledger
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Anyone seeing bargains in consumer discretionary yet? Stock market prices still feel on the slightly optimistic side to me. Some low multiples but elevated margins. And a fixed rate mortgage tsunami rolling through in the June and September quarters of 2023...
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Forager's December quarterly report is out. Read my thoughts on inflation and small caps in 2023. Plus new ideas in our Forager International Fund and a small kiwi software company reporting stellar results for the Australian Fund. foragerfunds.com/news/invest…
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This $NTO takeover battle is getting quite entertaining. Potentia now taking Nitro to the takeovers panel accusing them of failing to run a competitive process! 🧵
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