Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. cnn.it/3A8VJAn
I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
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Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?
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For Dem leaders, the call is coming from inside the house. Their own voters despise them.
Dem Cong leadership's net approval with Dems is down 31 pts (to a negative 12 pts) from the last Trump Midterm.
Schumer at -5 pts is the least like Dem Senate leader among Dems on record!
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My friends on the morning show @JohnBerman @KateBolduan @sarasidnerCNN are hosting office hours tonight at 7pm...
Ask anything you want about the midterms or what songs I dance to backstage. Link below!
cnn.com/all-access/series/of…
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Trump continues to break records on inflation (in a bad way).
His -61 pt net approval on inflation in yesterday's MU Law poll is the worst for any president ever in any poll.
Worse than Carter, Reagan or Biden.
He's underwater with Dems (-95), Indies (-74), & GOP (-4)!
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In 2024, Trump said he could end the Russia-Ukraine War in a day. Hasn't happened. Now, he's blaming Ukraine on oil prices.
Voters don't but it. Trump's net approval is -33 pt (& -53 with indies) on Russia/Ukraine. In 2024, voters trusted Trump more than Harris by 2 pt on it.
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Trump did historically well with non-college Latinos in 2024. Winning by 1. Now? His net approval is -42!
Big reason? Immigration. They trusted him more than Harris by 9 on it. His net approval now? -47!
Effect? Talarico may win cause of major gains w/ non-college Latinos.
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You wanna talk about a problem for the GOP?
2026 is by far the biggest spike in gas prices (up 52%) over a midterm year this century.
Worse? 2026 = 1st time in a midterm year this century where gas prices rose from Aug 14 to Sept 14!
Killer stuff for congressional majorities.
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Trump wants these midterms to be about him. Democrats are down on their knees begging for that to be so.
-Voters saying their vote is about Trump (good or bad) choose Dems by 27 pts!
-Dems are currently underperforming where they would be if disapproving of Trump = Dem vote.
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Trump's rating on inflation with independents has gone 76 pts in the wrong direction!
He's now 64 pt underwater vs. beating Harris on inflation by 12 pt.
Midterm implications: Indies trusted GOP more on inflation in Aug 2022 by 27 pt. Now, Dems lead by 18 pt. A 45 pt shift!
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SC serves as a reality check: Trump's still the sun around which the GOP revolves.
Trump's endorsees for Senate have won 100% of the time in 2026. He pulled Graham who had little shot pre-endorsement over the finish line.
The GOP admires Trump far more than Reagan or Lincoln.
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It's amazing how Florida has basically been taken off the board for the Democrats.
Yes, it's the Senate election this year... But the GOP has been winning all the major races.
The GOP now has an 11 pt edge in party registration... in a state quickly gaining population!
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Gonna be real... I look at a lot of polls... and I had never heard of this fake polling group until the 3,000 articles about the fake polling group...
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Ay caramba!, Trump had a historically strong showing for a GOP nominee with Hispanic men, but his support has plummeted.
He won them by 10 pt in 2024. His net approval in 2026? -41 pt. A 51 pt drop!
In the House vote, GOP won Hispanic men by 8 pt in 2024. Now? Dems lead by 20!
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Dems may put up a historic showing in southern Senate races this year & their majority may run through the south.
Ossoff (GA) & Cooper (NC) are clearly ahead. Talarico is +2...
If all that were right on, Dems would win more southern Senate races than any midterm in the 2000s!
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Despite all the talk of climate change, voters, simply put, don't care.
Climate ranks 14th on list of top issue for the midterm vote (at 3%).
Those who say it's a very big problem is the same as in 2016 (~40%).
Not even a majority agree humans cause any climate change.
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Non-college voters, the base of the MAGA movement, are abandoning the GOP.
MAGA's net favorability is -22 pts (down 28 pts) with them. Trump's now at -19 pt net approval with them. Dems actually lead in the race for Congress with them.
This is what blue waves are built on.
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