Global markets for the smart money. All dates and times displayed in US Eastern unless otherwise specified.
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🇳🇿 Heads up: New Zealand moves its clocks forward one hour on Sunday, September 27, at 2am local time.
Keep the shift in mind if you follow the New Zealand dollar or NZ economic data. The Forex Factory Calendar adjusts event times automatically. 📅⏰
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3 awards added for @OneRoyalEN on the broker guide.
View Broker Profile: forexfactory.com/brokers/bra…
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🇬🇧Heads up, cable traders! BoE Gov Bailey will be speaking on a panel with the Fed’s Williams.
GBP traders will be listening closely for any shift in Bailey’s outlook or clues on the path for monetary policy.
Follow and discuss it all on Forex Factory: forexfactory.com/?utm_source…
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3 awards added for @Tickmill on the broker guide.
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🌕Asia-Pacific traders, note China’s Mid-Autumn Festival holiday tomorrow through Sunday.
Liquidity may be lighter during China’s usual market hours. The three-day break comes just ahead of National Day Golden Week, October 1–7.
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UoM Consumer Sentiment is due Friday.
Preliminary data hinted at stagflation worries: sentiment weakened as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped.
Rising fuel prices and trade tensions weighed on the outlook. How much of that weakness will survive revision?
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SNB decision next.
A hold at 0.00% is widely expected, but updated inflation forecasts and any change in FX intervention language could set the tone for CHF.
Follow the news here: forexfactory.com/?utm_source…
🇨🇭SNB preview:
The SNB is expected to hold at 0.00%, where its policy rate has stood since June 2025.
August’s CPI increase raised the market-implied odds of future hikes. Will updated forecasts reinforce that view?
Also watch its language on FX intervention and the franc.
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AU employment report next.
After last month’s surprise decline, traders are watching to see if employment will bounce back.
Follow the news here: forexfactory.com/?utm_source…
🇦🇺 Australia’s employment report is due this week. Markets price a roughly 90% chance of an RBA hike next week.
Bullock just said the labor market remains tight, adding to inflation pressure.
A soft report could temper hike expectations. A strong one would reinforce them.
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🇨🇦Canadian Retail Sales are coming up.
Last month's 0.6% beat expectations, but StatCan's advance estimate points to -0.8% this month.
This estimate was based on only about half of survey responses, but it is anchoring the expectation for a sharply worse release.
CAD traders will be watching for how the finalized figure compares to the estimate.
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🇺🇸 US New Home Sales is due in tomorrow’s NY session, with a forecast of 615K.
Last month’s 607K was a sharp drop, alongside lower median prices and higher inventories.
Will this release point to continued weakness in the housing market?
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🇨🇭SNB preview:
The SNB is expected to hold at 0.00%, where its policy rate has stood since June 2025.
August’s CPI increase raised the market-implied odds of future hikes. Will updated forecasts reinforce that view?
Also watch its language on FX intervention and the franc.
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🇦🇺 Australia’s employment report is due this week. Markets price a roughly 90% chance of an RBA hike next week.
Bullock just said the labor market remains tight, adding to inflation pressure.
A soft report could temper hike expectations. A strong one would reinforce them.
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🇦🇺 RBA Governor Bullock’s fireside chat in Sydney is her last scheduled appearance before the RBA decision next week.
Australia’s four major banks now expect a 25 bp hike, following her recent hawkish comments.
Any shift in tone could move the aussie.
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🇺🇸🏛️ A busy week of Fed speakers follows last week’s rate hike.
Goolsbee opens the week in London with a discussion on monetary policy and the economic outlook.
Williams and Jefferson then speak at the New York Fed’s Treasury Market Conference. Barkin is also scheduled to discuss the economy. Later in the week, Williams will appear in England for a macro policy forum and a monetary economics panel.
Barr, Hammack, and Paulson will appear at events focused on housing, inflation, and fintech.
Not every appearance will be policy-focused, but traders will be listening for additional color on inflation, the economy, and the path for rates.
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🇯🇵 Tokyo session heads-up: Japanese banks will be closed for the first three days of next week.
Mon: Respect for the Aged Day
Tue: Citizen’s Holiday
Wed: Autumnal Equinox Day
Thinner liquidity can bring unusually quiet trading, sudden moves, or both.
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The Fed and BOJ raised rates, while the BOE held steady. U.S. retail sales and geopolitical headlines added to a busy week.
Developments in Ukraine and the Middle East gave traders plenty to watch beyond the calendar. What had your attention?
Here’s to a quieter weekend!
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🇯🇵 Overnight, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 bps to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.
The decision passed 7-2, with two board members favoring no change.
The hike was widely expected. Attention now turns to how Governor Ueda frames the path ahead.
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BoE decision next.
A hold at 3.75% is widely expected, but the vote split, statement language, and QT details could set the tone for GBP.
Follow the news here: forexfactory.com/?utm_source…
🇬🇧 BoE Preview:
Another hold is widely expected, leaving GBP traders looking for clues on the rate path.
As we previewed yesterday, CPI rose to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%, in line with expectations. Higher fuel prices were a key driver.
July’s 6–3 vote to hold was more hawkish than the 7–2 expectation. Mann joined Pill and Greene in backing a 25 bp hike, citing the risk of persistent inflation.
The MPC will also set its QT pace for the year ahead, with a slower reduction in gilt holdings widely expected.
With no Monetary Policy Report, traders will be watching the vote split, statement language, and QT details for the MPC’s policy tilt.
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