Lance Mallett@FormerFinancial

Former investment banker with 20+ years experience working with financial service companies

Joined May 2016
109 Photos and videos
$DX seems to be moving into oversold territory. Trading below my current BV estimate. No hurry to wade back in.
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I'm assuming BV is down 11%. Very back of the envelope analysis.
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Kinda surprised that agency REITs aren't rallying off Pulte headline about buying agency MBS
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Worst feeling relative daily performance since early March 2020 when I learned the difference between my view of being defensive and actually being defensive.
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Pretty much every position I've been reducing crushed today along with pretty much every thing I've bought. Of course, I barely own any $RWT but loaded with $RWTN and $RWTS💩
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$RWT mgmt seems to have no respect for company/shareholders. Keep agreeing to raise more expensive capital. Just don't know how to say "no, we are better than that." My guess is their cost of capital relative to peers have increased 300-400bps over the last 15 yrs.
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Accumulating an uncomfortable position in $RWTS
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Can't believe the speech is having such a difference in Sept hike expectations. They should but I will be very very surprised if they do (absent some surprising data).
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$BHF, $BHFAN and $BHFAL all catching a bid this afternoon. A lot of bad was priced in.
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Leading suspect for downturn: Headlines result in insurance regulators causing real tightening of lending standards, that damages credits and then eventual tightening of bank lending standards, pretty easy to see the path from there. This had potential to beat AI as cause
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This version of Claude is so bad that I'm putting everything except absolutely mandatory maintenance on hold. It reminds me of trying to get play video online circa 1997.
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I can't imagine need much more in a sell off at long end for preferred market to freak but maybe all the BS converts will help stabilize!
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$AGNC only raised $167 million this quarter. Raises a lot of questions for me.
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Trading down b/c it underperformed expectations but ok quarter for $DX. $Raised $392m of equity and while still miles from $AGNC/$NLY, hitting reasonable scale - any thank god feels like the first time they arent bloating expenses as they grow.
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Smriti highlighted increased scale at at least 3 times in opening remarks.
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$DX already tends to beat $AGNC despite expense disadvantage - less to overcome going forward. @jimdelisle has highlighted PMT/AGNC long short which is a better trade given huge delta but $DX/$AGNC has benefit of being largely identical strategies.
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Claude/Opus 4.7 is a neurotic mess.
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Lance Mallett retweeted
Chuckle Fox ReDox
@jimdelisle
Mar 16
My premise is that TWO is a great long because it is very unlikely a deal goes through as originally negotiated. That leaves TWO trading at 82% NAV. The avg mREIT is trading at 105% and the cheapest (ARR) at 97%. It is that simple.
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$RWT common looking pretty attractive. Only nibbling a little as I think there's decent chance it breaks through support and goes sub $5 and think it will take some time to put legacy investments behind them.
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Didn't buy enough of this but just sold it all.
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$AGNC $0.35 of spread income vs. $0.36 of dividends. Lifetime proj. CPR up to 9.6 from 8.6 as actual up to 9.7 from 8.3. Only had 3bps increase in net interest spread despite 30 bps improvement in repo costs as low cost hedges roll off and a little compression from CPRs.
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