Woohoo!! Super proud of our team! What a rewarding experience to be a part of @ETHGlobal. It was really cool to influence the tech I look up to everyday @CoinbaseDev

People on here always want to hear a singular decisive unchanging view (and a bullish one of course) but that is not really how trading goes. People can do that and hit the jackpot and become heroes but that is more akin to gambling than thoughtful trading. Being a good trader means mapping out different configurations of the future and staying open minded and observing how newsflow and price action coalesce to validate one of those scenarios. Playing the odds and managing risk. I have been fortunate and protecting the money I already have is more important to me than getting a moonshot 20x. In that vein, you shouldn't follow me for clear trading calls that can be copy traded, and if anything I want to fully move away from that. I change my tactical views all the time and it's not feasible to update you all on their evolution. I also feel a genuine sense of responsibility towards others and don't like to leave people hanging. I am here out of my enjoyment of writing and desire to exchange views with sharp people, and I don't have a need to optimize for clout that can someday be used to shill my own coin or whatever, because I will never do that. So instead it's more constructive for me to share insights about the big picture, because those will remain more stable, and maybe something isn't directly tradeable at the moment, but can help give color to the way the next 6-12 months unfolds. My big thesis around "There's Not Enough Money in The World" (see pinned post) was a good example of this, it wasn't a directly tradeable call at the time, but it predicted one of the most important macro dynamics for the year. It is genuinely a complex time because AI is changing everything. There are a lot of different cross currents. We've had the AI capex boom but the rate of change is slowing down, and now we are starting to explore the limits of financing capability as money is becoming tighter everywhere. There is reflexivity here, because as financing for AI capex tightens, sentiment around AI worsens, which further tightens financing, and so on, and so forth. We have the fact that AI is starting to unweave the fabric of the world as we know it, and will structurally increase uncertainty. Usually uncertainty is kryptonite for risk appetite, and increasing uncertainty is bad for asset prices, and decreasing uncertainty is good for asset prices. We also will have a lot of unemployment from AI. It's becoming more likely we see the initial wave of this next year, but the early stages can be bullish, because it won't be enough to meaningfully impact passive flows, but it will weaken economic data enough to potentially nudge the Fed into pivoting to be more dovish. This is combined with the fact that the 3 most hawkish members of the Fed, Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari, are all regional Fed Presidents that will roll off into 2027. So I'm hopeful that early 2027 will lead to better conditions. As the snowballs keeps rolling down the hill, and AI layoffs become significant, this will surely be bearish, since it will impact passive 401k flows which are a key underpinning for the market, it will reduce consumer spending, and lead to asset sales as unemployed people will need to fund living expenses. We are in an environment where asset prices (market caps) are very high relative to flows because they have generally been unidirectional. This has been a super bullish dynamic on the way up, but it cuts both ways. Timing all of these very factors is difficult, they are things that I keep in the back of my mind as I trade around shorter term catalysts and newsflow day to day. It's easier for me to say that conditions in equities will be challenging through the end of the year because I know the following: 1. Anthropic IPO will suck a ton of money out of equities directly, at least $40-50bn, and mostly out of AI stocks specifically. To me this is unavoidable. It doesn't mean I would short into the IPO but it is a major headwind. 2. Fed will likely pause in Oct and hike in Dec, but in any case, there will be no pivot before year end. Liquidity will remain tight. 3. Retail money has shown many signs of being tired, and spread too thin. The price action around the recent Nasdaq ATH reminded me of late October 2025, and this pattern recognition flipped me from bullish to cautious. I wish I had posted about it publicly then (people in my group chats know) but I was still locked out of my X account at the time. 4. Hedge funds have gotten rekt in October (yesterday was one of the worst days for them ever, across classic L/S, quant, and market neutral pods) and they will be reluctant to re-risk into year end, especially classic L/S funds are more likely to book their years and play defence given their incentives (annual returns are the main basis for relative evaluation and bonuses). Pods will also be more conservative because many teams will be closer to their drawdown limits (usually capital cut at -5% and fired at -10%). 5. As bills issuance has been so high in terms of mix, this puts pressure on repo/plumbing. A simple illustration of this dynamic is the following: if you spent a ton of money but had to fully pay off your credit card frequently, you would need to maintain more balance in your checking account to manage the float. This was manageable for most of the year due to the Fed's RMPs but Warsh recently ended it. Repo/plumbing tightens in Dec because banks like to close up their books early ahead of year end. When liquidity in this channel is abundant, the year end factor is irrelevant, it only matters when things are tight, which they likely will be. This happened last year. The main scenario where this is wrong is if we get a decisive resolution to Iran + Anthropic IPO is delayed. All of that said, there will be at least one good tradeable bounce within the next few weeks, this is inevitable. And I hope that on the other side of this, we get resolution on this factors hanging over the market, and we can have strong markets again. The market cannot be roaring all the time. The last few years has really been more of an aberration when you compare it against larger slices of history.

Bounce to 83k between US and Asia before more nuke??

Don’t forget, when BTC and your alts look like they’re holding better than stonks, you’re just about to get anal.

alright so I tried to figure out why things are blowing up simple summary: it's geopolitics. and if the Middle East gets bad enough, then the backers for OpenAI's $1.4T funding round could pull out so that's sending shockwaves through markets bc they're the big data center tenant ppl are worried about. the incremental appears to be that Ukraine is also getting unhinged there's not an AI specific catalyst this seems more like geopolitics. Last night TSM guided acceleration and Citi pressed if there was demand destruction on memory - TSM said no, that's already factored into the guide which means there's not some specific Korea fundamental thing -- and price action there is likely more of a margin call Ukraine bonds have dumped 20% since July. He just asked for $70b Euros from the EU while Trump denied shutting off Starlink (Elon had said it wasn't him, so it just looks like a sht show). Trump told Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelensky has since crashed out and said "The block is out, we're done". And is now vowing to hit Russian refineries. And it appears he's already followed through hitting a facility in Surgut with drones Indonesia got delisted from the MSCI and the entire country equity index is -14% in a day, increasing the likelihood of EM contagion Iran has moved their nuclear facilities under ground in PickAxe mountain and trump has talked about using the "MOAB" which stands for Massive Ordnance Air Blast - which is just shy of a nuclear blast. THis is a 21,600 pound bomb that isn't even particularly effective at hitting underground sites so might just be generically destructive. For some reason Trump thinks that doing this after mid terms is fine - but oil is already pumping reports from Israel meanwhile: Israel now deploying mobile bomb shelters in major cities, with 2 reportedly spotted in Ashdod and Tel Aviv within 24hs, as IDF raises its alert level to highest across all fronts amid preparations for a possible strike on Iran fun times

One of the smartest among us

Hearing things

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

Time to focus on stonks again

Sell when Saylor buys, buy when Saylor sells. It’s that simple.

SpaceX IPO liquidity suck on June 12th A lot of selling will happen in the last week of May - sell in May & go away…

Accumulating the only good DeFi left is probably a good summer task ethereum:0x808507121b80c02388fad14726482e061b8da827

Elon Musk just measured your existence by how many times your atoms have been inside a dying star. Musk: “How many times have your atoms been at the center of a star? I think it’s like on average three or four times.” Every atom in your body has already survived the core of a star. Multiple times. Crushed under pressures that would flatten planets. Superheated to millions of degrees. Blown apart in explosions so violent they forged new elements. Then gravity pulled those scattered pieces back together. New stars formed. And the cycle repeated. For 13.8 billion years, your atoms have been fuel for the most violent process in the universe. And they are not done. Musk: “In terms of existence as measured by the number of times your atoms will be at the center of a star, we seem to be roughly halfway.” Halfway. Your atoms have been through the furnace three or four times. They will go through three or four more. But right now, in this impossibly thin sliver between cycles, those atoms are doing something they have never done before. They are conscious. For billions of years before you, they burned through stellar cores with no awareness. No memory. No sense of what they were or where they had been. After you, they will return to that state. Unconscious matter drifting through space until the next star claims them. This is the only moment in their entire journey where they can look back at the stars that made them and understand. Musk: “If you want to look at the big picture… that’s the really big picture.” The big picture is not that we are small. Everyone already knows that. The big picture is that we are temporary witnesses to a process that does not need witnesses. Stars do not need observers to burn. Atoms do not need anyone to understand where they have been. The universe ran for billions of years with no one in it. It will run for billions more after the last conscious thing disappears. But right now, matter is examining itself. That has never happened before in 13.8 billion years. You are not a person who happens to contain ancient atoms. You are ancient atoms that briefly figured out how to think. The universe did not design consciousness. It designed stars. Consciousness was the accident. And the accident is half over.

Arbitrum and Base are all that matters.

AI has now solved a major open problem -- one of the best known Erdos problems called the unit distance problem, one of Erdos's favourite questions and one that many mathematicians had tried. openai.com/index/model-dispr…