US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Palm Beach, Florida
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Ed Bradford retweeted
Great graph (from @EtraAlex ) on the net supply of duration in US bond markets over time
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Ed Bradford retweeted
US 2-10 Yield curve reversal (inverted hammer >inside day>three river morning star) and bull flag very much the play
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You could make a case this isn't just about rate hikes but also the buildup of more risk premia across the curve. To the degree that is the case, the forward curve may be too flat.
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Ed Bradford retweeted
US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say
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Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.
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5s had been bizarrely rich at the beginning of the tightening cycle but now making a new low on the broad curve. 2s5s also 5 bps steeper than earlier before the auction
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Feels like Ts (Year bill and 2s) probably roll even better that what is implied by the forward here
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It has been a dramatic cheapening of 2s since CPI. Looking to see if there will be any reprieve after today's auction. With 1-year forward 2s eyeballing 5% would expect some interest from real money.
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Good trades aren't spread evenly in time. So you need to step up when good ones are there. This is one of those times in USTs/SR3s.
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One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year
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