Let’s see how stock trading actually works If a vegetable shop does not have tomatoes in stock, no customer will go there and there will be no opportunity to trade tomatoes. Similarly, stock trading does not move the last traded price (LAST TRADER PRICE). Tomatoes can be held for only five days, after which they expire. Let’s say tomatoes are in stock, and their average value is taken as Rs. 100. The initial price is Rs. 110 and the trade continues to increase, i.e. 112, 115. We can say that stock trading moves the last traded price (LAST TRADER PRICE) upwards. What you should notice here is that stock trading moves the last traded price upwards. How is this possible? It is possible only if there is stock. When the expiry date comes, the price of tomatoes will decrease, i.e. the price will go below Rs. 110. Now the entire market will be empty and there will be no stock in the shop. What you should note here is that no customer will go to the shop now and there will be no opportunity to trade tomatoes. What we have learned from this is that trade will only happen if there is a commodity. Similarly, as long as there is a commodity, the price will rise. When the price rises, there is no need to rush and take a small profit. You can wait and take a profit many times over. I have understood this from my experience.

If you look at today’s date, it is Friday, the 25th. The quantity from yesterday’s profit booking in the stock has only just now, almost completely, been cleared. So, a small correction is needed here. That correction may take the market towards around 23,220. There is no necessity for it to go above that level, but it can move up to that level. Transactions will continue to take place up to that level because a certain selling quantity needs to be created here. For that creation of selling quantity, #NIFTY may move upward to a certain extent. After that, from Monday onwards, the market will start trading on the downside.

NIFTY — Continuation of My Last Week’s View Last week, based on supply & demand and accountability, I said that NIFTY would move towards 22,200 within Monday or Tuesday. There was a small mistake in the accountability calculation, according to my own style of analysis. But it did not have any major impact because the downside market is still continuing. Last week, Monday was a holiday, and on Tuesday the market followed by the downside move. From Wednesday through this Monday, however, the market moved to the upside. The reason was that a correction happened, and the previous supply, demand and accountability were closed. The market was moving up as part of that correction. The overall assumption and the details were correct, but a correction occurred in between. If we look at the identification of accountability across the 50 NIFTY companies, there was a small mistake in that calculation. That correction has now happened, but it is not a major impact. The market is still on the downside, as I said earlier, towards 22,200. However, based on the current accountability, the correction has now completed. Yesterday, the market started moving to the downside again. Based on the current supply & demand across the 50 companies, the natural downside value is around 21,500. It is not 22,200 anymore. Based on the downside supply & demand of the 50 companies and the stocks that make up the index, the market naturally needs to move towards around 21,500. The downside move has already started again from yesterday, and it is continuing from the same starting point. So, based on the supply, demand and accountability of the 50 companies, I expect the market to continue towards 21,500, without another major correction. This view is based on the data from the supply, demand and accountability of those 50 companies. If you are still going long at this stage expecting the market to move to the upside, be careful. If you are holding call-side options, consider protecting your capital. From my view, there is no meaningful opportunity for the long side at this stage. If you align your position with the index movement from now, that is enough. In options, when holding with the index move, even at the minimum value, the potential profit can be more than 10 times. The duration, if we look at it, is around 22 days, and around 1 million stocks of accountability need to be closed. As long as the stocks are still there in the store, the market will keep moving in that direction and will not move upward. Only when the stock is cleared will the market move towards a correction. So, as long as the stock is still there, there is no need to rush and close your position. You can stay long, and you can hold it for around 22 days. I am connecting this view from yesterday onwards.

The downside rally will start at 11:30 AM today, and NIFTY will reach 23,160 today.

If anyone is still holding NIFTY Call Option positions, consider exiting immediately. The downside rally has started, and my view is that NIFTY could move towards 21800. My expected timeline is around 20–26 days, during which NIFTY could potentially reach the bottom. If you continue holding Call Option positions, you could face heavy losses. Manage your position and risk accordingly.

India–US Trade Risk Alert Trump has signed H.R. 5334 into law, giving the US authority to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil & gas, potentially including India. Important: This is NOT a 100% tariff imposed on India yet. The next trigger is whether the US actually exercises this authority. This could become an important factor for Crude → INR → Inflation → Indian Equity Markets. whitehouse.gov/briefings-sta… #NIFTY #TRUMP #CRUDEOIL #TARIFF #NSE #SENSEX

#NIFTY — My Current View (18 Sep 2026) This is a continuation of yesterday’s post, which was the last post of this week. This week, NIFTY’s accountability and supply-demand have executed correctly. The initial downside happened, and if you look at the last three days, the market has also closed flat. Actually, this flat movement was not required. But why was it required? Because for the price to move 1,000 points to the downside, space was required. So, to create that accountability, the flat side was created. Now, the maximum top has been established. This is almost like a resistance. We have used the word “resistance” here. Resistance means giving it back / turning it back. What is it going to give back now? The market is going to move down 1,000 points — meaning towards 22,200. Right now, the market is around 23,300+. So, it is going to come down around 1,100 points. That is why I am calling this resistance — it is giving the price back to the downside. The market has touched the highest point, reached the peak, and is now standing there. Maybe what I am expecting is that within Monday or Tuesday, within the current expiry, the market will put the bottom around 1,000 points lower.

#NIFTY #FED #SENSEX NIFTY — My Current View If we look at NIFTY based on accountability + supply & demand, we expected around 1,000 points of downside. Initially, we kept the duration at 10 days. But, two days earlier, we had already said that it would happen within 3–4 days, meaning NIFTY would reach 1,000 points downside by next Tuesday. Yesterday, the Fed’s 25-point hike result came. After the result, GIFT NIFTY saw around 200 points of downside after 11:30. After that, it again moved up by around 100 points. Once the result came, most people expected the market to open with a heavy gap-down. But the impact of the Fed report depends on specific companies that have foreign-exchange exposure or borrowing, based on their debt/interest structure and management decisions. But today, when the NIFTY market opened, the expected heavy gap-down did not happen. It opened around +20 to +40 points. After that, although the market moved around 100 points to the upside, that level of movement did not continue, and during the day’s trading, it again became flat. From my point of view, today was the Sensex weekly expiry/settlement. The FED event had happened. Instead of the market reacting to that event with a heavy move either up or down, the market may have been handled flat because of the settlement. In this critical situation, I see that there may have been MARKET MARKER activity that could handle the market. That activity may have already come into GIFT NIFTY beforehand. Because of that, the fluctuation may have been controlled there itself. After that, once the market opened, the market neither fell heavily nor moved heavily to the upside, and it closed flat. Whether it is NSE or Sensex, both will have price movements in almost the same direction. But I see settlement-related activity as one possible reason why the price impact was not heavy today. Now tomorrow is Friday, the last day of the week. There is no settlement tomorrow. Therefore, I see that the required space for the downside accountability to close is now available. Although the impact of the Fed report reacted today, I expect its effect to react tomorrow, Friday. My expectation: From here, within the next 3 days, around 1,000 points of downside in NIFTY has a high possibility of following frequently. The reason — the time is very short, and the supply & demand quantity is high. It needs to be closed. Therefore, I expect that within the next 3 days, NIFTY may see a heavy fall and reach around 1,000 points of downside.

#NIFTY #SENSEX #NSE #FED #RBI #UPI #ERUPEE Why still depend only on UPI? Think about e₹. Recently, a new UPI MDR framework has been introduced. From ₹2,000+ specified merchant transactions, a 0.4% MDR applies, with a maximum of ₹300 for transactions of ₹75,000 and above. Certain essential sectors have a flat ₹5 MDR. Important: This MDR is NOT a direct charge on the customer. P2P UPI remains completely free, and customers should not be charged MDR or hidden platform fees. But this raises an important question: If digital payments are evolving, why depend only on UPI? Why not also understand and use e₹? UPI is a payment mechanism. e₹ is the Digital Rupee — the digital form of India’s currency, issued by RBI and recognised as legal tender. The retail e₹ pilot was launched on 1 December 2022. It has already been around for nearly four years, and RBI has been expanding its use cases and interoperability with UPI QR infrastructure. Now look at physical currency: ₹500 | ₹200 | ₹100 | ₹50 | ₹20 | ₹10 | ₹5 | ₹2 | ₹1 India has already experienced major changes in physical currency. ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes lost legal-tender status in 2016. ₹2,000 was withdrawn from circulation in 2023. I am NOT saying that ₹500, ₹200, ₹100, ₹50, ₹20, ₹10 or other denominations will definitely be demonetised in the future. But the direction of money is increasingly digital. If the future brings further changes in physical currency, wouldn't it be better to understand Digital Rupee (e₹) today rather than learn it suddenly later? UPI = Payment Rail e₹ = Digital Rupee Don't confuse the two. Understand e₹. Experience e₹. Be prepared for the digital future of money.

#NIFTY #FED For the downside market accountability to close, we need some space. That is why the market has been running flat since yesterday—to create that required space. But many retail traders and investors have misunderstood this flat market. They have taken fresh long positions during this period. In my view, this flat movement is actually giving them an opportunity—an opportunity to protect their capital and save their trades. If you continue to hold those positions, when the downside accountability closes and the rally starts, you may face a significant impact. So, the market is currently giving you enough time to protect your trading capital. Don’t ignore that opportunity. This situation may not continue for long. In my view, within the next 3–4 days, NIFTY needs to move around 1,000 points on the downside for the accountability to close. Historically, this is how I see the accountability process working. Supply and demand are already being created in that area. Let’s see how it unfolds.

#NIFTY #FED The Fed rate cut is just an event. Most traders—probably 99%—will immediately think that a rate cut must drive the market heavily in one direction. That is the common way of thinking, but it can be misleading. Don’t trade based on the common assumption. Think about the reality behind the market—Supply, Demand and Accountability. In my view, the real factor is the accountability of the NIFTY 50 companies. If the existing accountability was expected to close over 10 days, an event like this may accelerate that process and complete it in 2–3 days. But that does not mean the Fed rate cut itself is the direct reason for the entire market move. The actual impact of a rate cut on a company’s interest cost depends on its borrowing structure and when those rates are repriced. It is not necessarily an immediate impact on the company’s earnings. Don’t trade by looking at one event from the common angle. Understand the underlying Supply, Demand and Accountability. That is what matters in trading.

#NIFTY Within the next 3–4 days, I expect the market to hit 1,000 points on the downside that means 22200. This is my current accountability target, and my view is that the 1,000-point downside move needs to be completed regardless of the short-term fluctuations. Let’s see how the market unfolds. I welcome an open challenge. If anyone strongly disagrees with my analysis or wants to review it critically, feel free to put forward an open challenge. Let’s discuss the facts, reasoning and evidence openly.

AI has not yet been properly trained to understand the stock market at the level of actual trading. Why? Because most of the available training data reflects conventional market theories, indicators, patterns and historical opinions rather than the real mechanics of trading. AI can only learn from the data it is trained on. If the underlying data does not accurately represent how markets actually work, the AI will reproduce those limitations. So, at present, what we commonly see is AI explaining existing trading knowledge, not necessarily demonstrating genuine market-trading intelligence. In my view, true AI trading requires training on high-quality, real-time market data, order flow, supply and demand, position behaviour, execution and accountability/closing—not simply historical opinions and textbook indicators.

#NIFTY Why is the market neither moving down nor moving up significantly? What is the reason? In my view, the current accountability closing is on the downside. For a downside move to develop, the market needs sufficient space for that move to unfold. Because that space was not available earlier, the market has been travelling relatively flat. Now, to some extent, that required space has developed. Therefore, my view is that the market may start moving toward the downside from tomorrow. When we analyse price and time, the market does not move randomly; the movement develops within a particular angle or trajectory. At present, the price-and-time movement is working within that angle. So the current sideways movement is not necessarily a sign that the downside view has failed. In my analysis, it is part of the process of creating the required space for the next downside move.