BofA's Hartnett (Flow Show) lays out three paths into the Nov 3 midterms with bonds the key variable: "quickest way to end US boom is surge in bond yields."
🟢 Bull Case — "Peace, Goldilocks, & Gridlock": "Trump ends Iran war, WTI oil falls to $80/barrel, inflation expectations & Fed hike expectations peak, and bond yields reverse lower keeping booms in K-shape consumer and AI capex intact; Trump holds Senate."
🔵 Base Case — "Debasement & Duration": "nibble at 'peak yield' plays" — the 30-year, Mag-7, biotech, small caps, REITs, HK property; "risk assets hold until midterms."
🔴 Bear Case — "Bonds & Voters": "DEMs take Senate & win tightening Texas Governor race… bond tantrum deepens" (10-yr +128bps since Feb). History rhymes — "+200bps ended Nifty Fifty in '73, +230bps ended Japan bubble in '89, +260bps ended tech bubble in 2000."
The midterms are the "most likely catalyst for +/-10% stocks into '27."