Back in 2022/2023, I was full time in real estate selling DH Horton concrete prisons to the normiecattle. If you called Zillow in PHX on a house in my zip code, there was a high likelihood I would get to flirt with your wife behind your back that friday touring a house.
Back in 2022 (even during 120° summer) I would receive HUNDREDS of phone calls a week. About 20% losers without money. Almost half were illegals who sometimes showed up to a showing smelling like a rat covered in shit and thought you could buy a house with a VISA. But some of those were solid leads—people who are stupid enough to think $3500 /month for a toasty gray floor whitewash shitbox in a sand-colored favela was somehow going to improve their life. Those watery-eyed Disney Adults who would flop out of a Honda Odyssey with a useless Rocket Mortgage pre-approval gripped tightly in their grimy paws. On average during off season I probably did about 15 house showing appointments a week.
I had my fun, made some money along the way, and got out of the industry. But I get calls every now and again from former clients and colleagues. Usually shooting the shit. Just had one call me earlier this evening asking what I think about selling his house I bought him (VA loan, great floor plan, very affordable). Military wants him to relocate so he's been on the market for 100+ days. Price cut down to the lowest in his area (300s). Open house every weekend. Nothing. He's panicking and asking me what to do.
I get a wild hair and text my old head-taker (MLO who won loan officer of the year twice in a row) to see what's shaking. Turns out he had to sell his boat last month and considering his house. He used to sling refis and HELOCs like a drug mule does fent on Indian School and the 17. Guy made close to a million a year 2020-2023. You wouldn't know it because he's a few bad more months before going broke.
I do not see a future where real estate doesn't crash. There's simply too many illiquid deranged boomers who are drunk on decades of cheap money, shitty margaritas and will either be forced into selling or die like a 3% interest rate pharoah. I worked with too many of them (I have hundreds of stories) of Deborahs and Chucks, Dales and Sues, Bobs and Jeanies who are do not understand that Zoomers cannot afford the lifestyle inflation nor want their decrepit upranches.
Remember; every day 10,000 boomers hit 65. Then 5500 die daily. Consider that real estate supply is already high, demand is already low and this is before a wave of Margaritaville Shitboxes hit the market at delusional prices. If Meemaw and Peepaw are calling the shots they are going to drag their feet until their heels turn to hamburger—even if nobody puts an offer in. That means buyers will wait longer and make them bleed because a $4800 a month payment at 7+% interest rate is not feasible for an Amazon Prime Ring Doorbell goyserf family. And if they get put in a house or croak the kids always want cash out. They'll price cut until they sell, which means tanking the whole neighborhood's value.
Enjoy the show 🍿
BREAKING 🚨: Housing Market
Home Sellers now outnumber Home Buyers by the largest margin ever recorded 🤯 👀