⛔️Consumer #sentiment falls to 4-month low in September
⚠️Higher inflation is weighing on personal finances and business conditions & expectations are dimmer, disproportionately amongst Republicans
🔻Sentiment -7%
🔻Current Conditions -1.9%
🔻Expectations -10.1%
After the Fed hiked last week, many thought it would buy the central bank time to see how inflation was progressing before having to take action again.
But a newfound urgency has been injected into the debate, with markets now pricing in 70% odds of an October hike, raising the risk that the Fed gets boxed into moving at consecutive meetings
nytimes.com/2026/09/25/busin…@nytimes
📈Strong US capex trends...
....even when you adjust for inflation
▶️Led by AI-investment surge, but also visible across machinery, metals and transportation equipment
The losses in the US Treasuries market intensified on Wednesday as robust US manufacturing and services activity, higher oil prices and a weak 5-year Treasury auction drove yields across most maturities to the highest levels in almost two decades.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in more than 2 years, further weighing on a housing market already suppressed by elevated prices & sluggish sales
The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage +15bps to 7.12% in week ended Sep 18 @MBAMortgagebloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Fed Governor Barr signals more policy tightening
"We needed to recalibrate monetary policy to reflect the balance of risks to our mandate goals...
In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion"
🎙️ I joined #RadioDavos with @RobinPomeroyEd to discuss the latest @wef Chief Economists Outlook, a regular pulse-check of the global economy, and weigh in on what I believe represent the new economics of capital...
lnkd.in/p/g4NFn8pr
Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude next month under long-term agreements after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked, people informed of the decision said. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman details the initial findings of the third-party review of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
She says the report challenges findings that social media amplified the run. She says it clears the 2018 regulatory tailoring law, contradicting the Fed report released by Michael Barr in 2023.
She doesn't say whether or when the final report by Starling will be made public. federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high, flags concerns over inflation
Governor Ueda signaled more tightening: “important to stabilize the rate of price increases at a level ~2%... I believe the phase of policy has shifted to a new stage.”
"The yen extended its drop against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave mixed signals about future interest-rate hikes, falling short of markets’ hawkish expectations.".
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…