HANGERS will be BANGERS for 2025 Topps Chrome Football @CardPurchaser

2026 Topps Update Deep Dive Update is looming. And for once, “mass-produced Flagship” might not be the insult it usually is. There are over 250 million cards in this thing, so no, Topps did not suddenly discover restraint. But buried beneath it all are some surprisingly solid numbers, some retail formats that have no business being this good, and a couple of the best value propositions we’ve seen in baseball this year. We’ve got new Rare Inserts, some returning favorites, a couple sneaky format plays, and wait...were gonna be talking about Fat Packs?! Just trust me, it won't suck as much as it sounds like it will. Welcome to 2026 Topps Update. Part 1: The Basics Update is set to launch on Wednesday, October 14th with no time specified yet by Topps. Luckily, we have odds in plenty of time before the product releases. However, that also means we aren't privy to the weekly Monday morning Topps tweet that details pricing. That won't happen until next week. We do know Pre-order pricing: Hobby- $110 Jumbo- $210 Dare I say they seem reasonable? I suspect these will be slightly higher on release day. Then it will sell out and the market will do it's thing and squeeze all the juice out of the sealed product. Just guessing. Regarding configurations, the only notable change from last year is Value Boxes coming in at 1 less pack- 6 packs of 12 as opposed to 7. Part 2: Production Numbers Total Cards in Product: 252,310,040 2025 Topps Update- 228,258,400 YOY: +10.5% Compare this to the other Flagship releases this year: 2026 Topps Series 1- 558,065,504 2026 Topps Series 2- 398,173,696 2026 Flagship NFL- 581,000,973 2025-26 Flagship NBA- 429,697,744 Total Production by Format: Hobby- 102,900 boxes (8,575 cases) --->+47% YOY Jumbo- 48,650 boxes (8,108 cases) --->+24% YOY Value- 616,650 boxes (15,416 cases) ---> -1.3% YOY Fat Pack- 1,620,000 packs (15,000 cases) --> +24.6% YOY Hangers- 693,000 (10,828 cases) -->+0.5% YOY Fanatics Value- 50,160 boxes (1,254 cases)-->+0.2% YOY Super- 78,672 boxes (6,556 cases) ---> -34.9% YOY Club Super (Costco)- 201,600 boxes (16,800 cases) ---> N/A YOY Japan Exclusive- 61,875 boxes (5,156 cases)---> +503% YOY Notably, there are no Display boxes or Bulk Packs shown on the odds sheet this year. Part 3: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates by Format: Hobby: 0.35 Autos/0.66 Relics (35% of boxes should contain an Auto, 66% a relic, and a very small number could contain more than one hit) Parallels- 4.4 Inserts- ~17 Numbered Cards- 2.3 Jumbo: 1 Auto/1.55 Relics (Contrary to Hobby boxes, a significant number of Jumbos look to contain extra hits, most likely Relics. Topps states 2 hits. The math says 2.55 per box. This is not counting Silver Packs, which will add more hits but are not on the odds sheet.) Parallels- 10.8 Inserts- 30.3 Numbered cards- 3.9 Value Boxes: 1 Auto per 36.1 boxes (~1.1/case) 1 Relic per 18.5 boxes (~2.2/case) Parallels- 4.9 Inserts- ~11 Numbered cards- 0.33 (1 per 3 boxes) Fat Packs: 1 Auto per 92.9 packs (~1.2/case) 1 Relic per 47.5 packs (~2.3/case) Parallels- 0.6 Inserts- 2.35 Numbered cards- 1 per 7 packs Hangers: 1 Auto per 61.2 boxes (~1.05/case) 1 Relic per 22.3 boxes (~2.9/case) Parallels- 3.2 Inserts- 3.35 Numbered cards- 0.33 (1 per 3 boxes) Fanatics Value Boxes: 1 Auto per 16.1 boxes (~2.5/case) 1 Relic per 17.5 boxes (~2.3/case) Parallels- 6.5 Inserts- 14.75 Numbered cards- 0.5 (1 per 2 boxes) Japan Exclusive: 1 Auto per 5.85 boxes (~2/case) 1 Relic per 3 boxes (~4 per case) Parallels- 5.7 Inserts- 41.9 Numbered Cards- 2 Super Boxes: 1 Auto per 18 boxes (1 per 1.5 cases) 1 Relic per 7.7 boxes (1.6/case) Parallels- 8.2 (Including 5 Crackle Foil) Inserts- 20.4 Numbered Cards- 0.6 A word about Costco Super Boxes: I will enter the data as the odds show. However, the main reason for buying the Costco Super Boxes, the bonus packs, are not reflected on the odds sheet. Those 3 packs include Flagship Collection base, Chromes, Inserts, and an occasional Auto. So keep in mind these numbers are solely reflecting the "base packs" within the Costco Super boxes, making these particular Super Boxes markedly better than the numbers say. Club Super Boxes: 1 Auto per 19.9 Boxes (1 per 1.7 cases) 1 Relic per 3 boxes (~4/case) Parallels- 3.9 (not counting Flagship collection packs) Inserts- 23.1 Numbered Cards- 0.7 Rare Inserts: For 2026 Update, Rare Inserts will include: Heavy Lumber Home Field All Aces All Kings Matt Szczur Art Cards Cover Athletes Cards And one more bit of exciting news...Mystical is a Rare Insert this year! These have always looked fantastic and should have always been more scarce to give them the desirability they deserve. Though it doesn't always turn out the greatest when a more common insert suddenly turns into a Rare Insert, sometimes it can be a sneaky value play. They may start off too cheap until it catches on. Then eventually, like the Home Field Advantage arc of past releases, even the more common copies of the past could gain some traction as people realize how scarce the new ones are. Other than that, pretty standard list here, featuring some very popular inserts...and it's really nice to see some new names on the All Aces/Kings checklists. Though I haven't seen renderings, the Matt Szczur Art Cards seem like the Keegan Hall Art Cards from last year's Update, which were very popular, not particulary rare, and held good value. The Matt Szczur cards are quite a bit more scarce than those were, so I would expect more of the same, despite the excessive number of consonants in my man's name. Rare Insert Hit Rate by Format: Hobby- 1 per 23.05 boxes (1 per 1.92 cases) Jumbo- 1 per 11.25 boxes (1 per 1.9 cases) Value- 1 per 124.85 boxes (1 per 3.12 cases) Fat Packs- 1 per 252 packs (1 per 2.33 cases) Hangers- 1 per 152.75 boxes (1 per 2.39 cases) Fanatics Values- 1 per 80.14 boxes (1 per 2 cases) Super boxes- 1 per 64.24 boxes (1 per 5.35 cases) Club Super boxes- 1 per 54.5 boxes (1 per 4.54 cases) Japan Exclusive- 1 per 38.95 boxes (1 per 3.25 cases) Part 4: Value Map Prices are based on pre-order pricing of $110/Hobby & $210/Jumbo, and standard retail pricing for all other formats. Those will likely increase slightly on release day, but this is a good foundation. I'll try to make an editable spreadsheet available on my Substack if you would like to keep up with these values as market prices fluctuate. $/Card: 1) Fat Pack- 19¢ 2) Club Super box- 22¢ 3) Hanger- 25¢ 4) Super box- 27¢ 5) Fanatics Value- 31¢ $/Parallel: 1) Fanatics Value- $4.63 2) Hangers- $4.67 3) Super Box- $4.88 4) Value Box- $5.09 5) Club Super box- $10.23 (does not include bonus packs) $/Auto: 1) Jumbo- $207.92 2) Hobby- $314.29 3) Fanatics Value- $483.30 4) Fat Packs- $650.37 5) Super Box- $718.40 $/# Card: 1) Hangers- $45.45 2) Hobby- $48.03 3) Fat packs- $49.21 4) Jumbo- $54.26 5) Club Super boxes- $56.34 $/Rare Insert: 1) Fat Packs- $1,764.00 2) Club Super Boxes- $2,180.00 3) Hangers- $2.291.25 4) Jumbo- $2,362.50 5) Fanatics Value- $2,404.20 $/Quality Hit: 1) Jumbo- $102.90 2) Hangers- $134.10 3) Hobby- $151.80 4) Fat packs- $177.52 5) Fanatics Value- $188.10 Part 5: Best Formats For discerning buyers who want the best format regardless of price point, Jumbo is going to be the best format in the product. This is due to the fact that Jumbos outpace all other formats when it comes to all Autos & Relics. For anywhere near drop pricing, I would stick to Jumbos as much as possible. Hobby is more cost-effective than Jumbo for numbered foil parallels, but Jumbos are the better format in almost every other way. However, this is only part of the story. In keeping with the trend of the last couple years, Fat Packs are sneaky good. For almost every Parallel contained in them, Fat Packs have the lowest acquisition cost of all formats. They just lag behind on high end upside because they can't compete with Jumbo or Hobby from an Auto perspective. Additionally, when I single out the most desirable stuff that is not autoed- like All Aces, All Kings, Golden Mirrors, Legend Golden Mirrors, Cover Athletes, 1952 Rookie Variations, etc...Fat Packs are the most cost-effective to pull every single one of those. When it comes to Rare Inserts in general (commonly misconstrued as "Case Hits"), Fat Packs are 20% better than the #2 format, Costco Super Boxes. I KNOW this annoys a whole segment of collectors. Fat Packs are not ideal. They slosh around in the case and have no rigidity, causing dings to the cards inside. Every socks & Hoka Sandal wearing beer belly with a postage scale at Target thinks they can search the Fat Packs. And they sure try. Honestly, the $7 Fat Packs have no business being a decent format. They should be for the kids. But the numbers say they belong. Want another sneaky good format? Costco Super Boxes. Specifically, the "Flagship Collection" version, not the Funko version. Problem is, they're so sneaky I can't even put actual numbers on them. Based on their bulk packs alone, they're solid. But when you factor in the wild card of the 3 Flagship Collection packs, for which we have no odds, they have to be near the top of Retail formats for value. Any Chromes, Parallels, and Autos that come from these are a bonus. I wish they were a little more manly to open. I feel like a big-ass 8-yr-old when I bust into Super Boxes. Not to mention the ridiculous footprint with a gigantic 12 box case and a tiny little $480 price tag. Not the most masculine feeling in sports cards. But who am I kidding? We collect shiny cardboard with dudes on them. I'm not here to impress you. Nor are you here to impress me. The other format I have to mention is the old standby Hanger Boxes. If you know me, you know my favorite metric. "$ Per Quality Hit" is where I hang out. When I buy, this is the first column I look at. Jumbos at $102.90/Quality Hit seem like a ridiculous deal. That is an extremely solid value for a baseball release. But guess what's right behind it? Hangers at $134.10. At these rates, both of these would be in the top 5 formats of any MLB release of the year. Jumbo will certainly spike and work its way off that list. Hangers, being a retail specialty, will stay a sneaky good deal until they dry up. For retail buyers, you can't go wrong with Fat Packs, Costco Super Boxes, or Hangers. I mean, it's Flagship. We all know it will still FEEL wrong a majority of the time. Don't expect miracles here. But these numbers are better than Series 1 or Series 2 offered, even at launch pricing. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? Well, I pre-ordered what I could, which turned out to be not much. The Queue Gremlins weren't overly generous. But there will be a few boxes headed my way. I'm guessing launch pricing will look something like $125/Hobby & $240/Jumbo. Even then, I would grab what you are able to. Somehow, we live in an alternate universe where even mass-produced Flagship releases are tough to get at launch. It will disappear quickly. Stupid Blowout has assured us of that having already priced it at $200/Hobby & $375/Jumbo. Part 7: Print Runs Base Card Production: ~620,550 ea The rest of this list is pretty extensive, and this post is long enough. So if you'd like to check out Print Runs on all Unnumbered Parallels, Inserts, Autos, & Relics, you'll find I've already posted it on my Substack. slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2… #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsUpdate

Well, that was fun. I'm grateful that I got a case of 2026 Mars Attacks. And greatly enjoyed opening it with my son. Here are the highlights: 63 Numbered cards (~3 per box) /350- 13 /299- 13 /250- 9 /199- 8 /150- 6 /99- 7 /75- 3 /50- 2 /25- 1 /10- 1 Relics-4 (Expected 5) Martian Suit, Polar Princess Train, Elf's Hat, Wrapping Paper Boxtopper Rip Cards- 3 Mars Invasion Chrome Inserts (Print Run ~85, Odds 1 per case)- 2 2 Awesome 1/1 Sketches (Odds ~1 per Case) 2 Chrome Caught in the Crossfire Autos (Expected 2): Chris Parnell Unnumbered AND Mike Tyson Nucleus Refractor Auto /99. But most importantly: 17 Abominable Snowmen including 3 Red 16 Bigfoot including 3 Red 4 Yetis 2 Bigfoot Cryptid Alliance 3 Abominable Snowman Cryptid Alliance including 1 /25

W I already have Paramount for UFC anyways so anything extra is a W in my book

1 relic, 1 auto, 276 paper cards, and probably 2 random colored cards for $340, this is hilarious man my lord, jumbo boxes down to 1 autograph is genuinely mindblowing

The Road to Nowhere. The Line of Shame. The Queue of Disappointment. Pretty sure we're all gonna get CTE from doing this to ourselves time and time again. @Topps

Hey @Mojang @Minecraft I think you guys need to buff your final boss in Minecraft Dungeons 2 BIG TIME In no way should we be beating him in literally less than 30 seconds Give us more of a challenge please 🙏

LOL CUBS

Oh my...serious odds available now. Update Baseball, Cosmic Chrome, Tennis Chrome all popped. Already had Museum UEFA, Museum Baseball, Triumphant Tennis, Definitive NBA, and Royalty Premier League in the queue. I fully expect Bowman Football odds to be available within the next 48 hrs as well. Real life job beckons today. But I will get to these ASAP. If Bowman NFL odds pop, I'll jump on those immediately with the impending releases day on Wednesday. Outside of those, here is the order of analysis: 1) Tennis Chrome- drops Wednesday, quick breakdown 2) Cosmic Chrome- Oct 5th preorder 3) Update baseball- Oct 14th release The rest will fall in some order after that, maybe some double barrels. Drop dates have passed or are still a ways out so they won't be as pressing. Gonne be a fun month! #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #alltheodds

Very cool

LMFAO BENGALS DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YA ON THE WAY OUT 👋👋👋👋👋👋👋👋👋👋

Reminder that Ken Rosenthal is fucking douche canoe

Make these mark ups on retail make sense.

Absolutely embarrassing night for the Green Bay Packers Like holy fuck

2026 Topps Holiday Football has a couple cards that make me say “why?” The Dear Santa subset is at the top of that list.

Almost 10,000 signatures in 24 hours. Not bad…. Not bad at all. Keep signing. Keep sharing.

Me leaving the card shop without spending a single cent

He looks like a fish that jumped outta water 😂

I want to point something out real quick with 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball In the description it says “chrome base card” Does that mean we are not guaranteed chrome numbered in Holiday anymore? I haven’t seen anyone bring this up @CardPurchaser