The weekly close is the real confirmation.
Bitcoin broke through the May high this week, which I clearly got wrong. I thought that energy/yields/rates heading higher would immediately pressure Bitcoin.
A weekly close above the May high would improve confidence in the rally.
The long end rising recently is starting to pressure risk assets. So far, Bitcoin has shrugged it off, which caught me off guard.
If that changes, and Bitcoin closes back below the range highs with this move ending up as just a wick, things can change quickly.
I'm trying to be less deterministic about these outcomes. The rally above the May high certainly humbled me.
For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely for either confirmation of the breakout or a failed move back into the range, particularly with rates rising into a supply shock.
I discussed this at length in my last video for anyone curious about a more serious discussion rather than just a brief post.