NYC, TSLA long since '19, selective investor into disruptive companies. SpaceX mission a much bigger deal for humanity than understood.

$TSLA we are at an inflection point. Tesla has and continues to refine autonomous driving. It will ultimately redefine transportation as more people will benefit from low cost rides than actual ownership. Getting public buy-in will be the most difficult step. Sure there will always be people that are tech forward and trust all of the safety records. There are however more people who don't trust those safety records or even worse don't know that Tesla has this amazing software which exists today. Owners who pay $99/month don't have to drive they can supervise and let Tesla FSD chauffeur you around. I queried Grok to assess the costs for Tesla to run an ad campaign during live televised sporting events. Legacy auto bombards us with commercials for their products which can't provide the same advantages as Tesla. It's time to advertise, according to Grok, a strong ad campaign that would reach tens of millions would cost $40 million. At this point reaching tens of millions of viewers with a demonstration of FSD would generate returns far in excess of the total campaign cost. Hold your nose Elon and advertise.
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$TSLA $UBER I understand why the debate between these two companies is happening now with Tesla successfully rolling out their first Cybercabs, but this isn't a contest of equals. Google if they wanted to compete against Tesla could mount a legitimate effort with their AI and Waymo under the same roof. Yet even Google wouldn't be able to compete with Tesla on pricing so it wouldn't surprise me if/when Tesla reaches 50k Robotaxis that Google will try to deliver from Waymo through a public offering.
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$TSLA With what I experience on a regular basis as I let FSD handle the driving in my MY I have been convinced that Tesla would solve fully autonomous driving for a long time now. What Tesla accomplished in getting Cybercabs from unveil to launch in under 24 months is remarkable! The only real obstacles left for Tesla they they can't solve by applying first principles and superior engineering is public perception. Special interests and the politicians who do their bidding are already lining up to derail Tesla from operating in many markets and/or scaling. Given how the legacy media has been weaponized to harm Tesla's reputation it doesn't surprise me that Elon is reluctant to advertise through those media formats. However, after watching Starlink ads I believe there is value in launching a big Cybercab centric media ad campaign. Not only does legacy media not bite the hand which feeds it but it wants more of your Advertising dollars. The audience that would view live sports is the ideal target market. Most still don't know Tesla has the best technology, literally years ahead of the competition. Cybercabs will change perception and turn public from negative to positive. Aside from Uber drivers who don't even seem to enjoy what they're doing nobody enjoys taking Ubers. Cybercabs will be the best form of transportation... it's time to share the future with the masses.
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$TSLA Regulators serve an important role to society, but I think over regulation has to be safe guarded against at all costs. If a product that has been developed over the better part of a decade has data showing that it significantly safer then the question shouldn't be 'how many human jobs will this technology replace'? Slow rolling adoption of a technology that can save lives and prevent injuries is paramount.
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In the US approximately 16 million new cars are bought/leased annually. With an avg price approaching $50,000 most buyers are still content to get technology which was developed last century. If that avg figure of $50k or greater is within your budget and you're not at the very least considering a Tesla at this point then why not? You can buy a Tesla Model Y for under the avg price. Is it a perfect vehicle? Depends on how you define perfect. The reality is you're getting a safe car with the most advanced technology. Every new Tesla is capable of taking you from pt A to pt B while you sit in your driver's seat and supervise. Once you experience Full Self Driving that is the game changer. Driving is probably the most stressful task most people will do in any given day. Supervised driving and eventually unsupervised driving takes away most of that stress.
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$TSLA Tesla is set to scale their Robotaxi business in the next 9 months. Given the rate of production of Cybercabs they will have 1000s of revenue generating Robotaxis roaming around 24/7 in at least a dozen cities by the middle of Q2 '27. Technology is advancing at a pace that gives me great confidence in the trajectory of the scaling process. At a current mkt cap of $1.2T the idea of Robotaxis might be priced into their valuation but the proximity to scaling the business isn't. Any hypothetical model that plugs in COGS and Revs from a Cybercab dominant approach will yield software like margins. Unlike software which has a precarious moat, the Robotaxi business model will have a nearly impenetrable moat. Transportation is a necessary commodity. Tesla will be able to price the cost of transportation at levels that will make competition impossible. A true valuation of Tesla would start to model a Robotaxi business at scale.
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$TSLA investing is as much a measure of how you maintain an even keel as it is any other mental aspect. Believing that Tesla is a company unworthy of investing into or holding as an investment because sentiment has been negative is an emotional decision. Allowing emotions to dictate investment decisions is why most individual investors are better off simply choosing an index fund approach. I can clearly state without any emotional bias that Tesla is 10x the company it was back in Nov 2021, yet back then the market cap for the stock wa higher than it is today. When there is a clear disconnect between what the market perceives as fair value and what a company has under its hood is where opportunity exists. If an investor needs quarterly results to confirm worthiness of investment then the best opportunity has likely already bypassed. Some investors are frustrated because timing hasn't met their expectations or other opportunities would have been better. Yet if you understand returns are rarely linear and exponential growth can happen quickly you also need to adjust your expectations. Quarterly results can guide investors especially when evaluating more mature companies, but with high growth companies focusing on frontier technologies they can also be misleading. Choose carefully and build your own conviction.
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$TSLA over the past 5 years Tesla has built a business that is unrecognizable from where it was in 2021. The value creation in the company by every metric has been significant with one exception and that is the market cap. The longer the base the bigger the breakout...not my quote but definitely applicable to TSLA.
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$TSLA while I understand the reason for some healthy skepticism or impatience at this point, from my vantage point we are days and many steps closer to seeing the true version of Tesla Robotaxi unveiled and Optimus V 3.0 starting production. While other companies' equity valuations have certainly run laps around Tesla, I think Tesla's opportunities viewed in TAM will prove in hindsight to be a huge missed opportunity for many. Being a TSLA shareholder is hard, the rollercoaster ride isn't enjoyable for most investors. At the end of the day remember as a shareholder you own a piece of the underlying company not some ticker symbol.
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$TSLA many companies, including those with significantly larger market capitalizations than Tesla, have swung and missed in product launches and acquisitions. Yet, Tesla and Elon specifically are constantly given grief for what are perceived as swings and misses. Tesla like every other company has missed on some products but they've also consistently attempted bigger swings. So while Tesla solar has been a miss, Tesla BESS has been a huge success. If Cybertruck has been somewhat of a miss (from a sales perspective) then the Model Y has been a legendary success. I think it's important to compare and contrast. Apple folded their Autonomous Vehicle project after devoting years and billions into that project. While it's prudent to analyze progress through a realistic lens it is also foolish to ignore the complexity behind achieving levels of success. Apple wisely concluded that they wouldn't be able to produce an Autonomous Vehicle to compete with Tesla. One of the best companies when it comes to ROIC came to that conclusion and yet people still can't see what Tesla has accomplished.
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$TSLA I wonder how many people who own shares in Tesla and how many people who are bullish on the company really understand how far ahead the company is in terms of real world AI. Based on comments, mostly on X, it appears the overwhelming majority of people are still uncertain. Tesla FSD is all the evidence needed to understand just how far ahead Tesla is from any meaningful competition. IYKYK
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$TSLA for anyone who doesn't believe the Cybercabs which are currently being produced in Giga Texas are ever going to autonomously pick up paying customers do yourself a favor and go test drive any Tesla with the current version of FSD. You will walk away realizing that autonomous driving is solved completely for safety. Are there some refinements and certainly some navigation issues which remain? Sure, but not to any meaningful level which will delay incorporating Cybercabs into the fleet eventually becoming the majority of Robotaxis.
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$TSLA imagine focusing on backwards looking metrics right as Cybercabs production is happening and the first Optimus V3.0 lines are being completed...Tesla will control real world AI. All the pick axe and shovel stocks that were necessary for companies to train their AI models have run up to valuations which can't be supported without AI becoming actually useful in the real world and generating massive monetization streams. Tesla is going to transform and dominate the transportation and labor markets.
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$TSLA is there another company in the US or globally for that matter that is actively developing real world AI driven products which will be in production this year and scale from there? The chip stocks have been the market leaders for the AI boom but if real world AI doesn't follow the. those chip stocks value will see a massive decline. Their value is based on forward looking demand. In order for demand to remain high there has to be a ROIC by the companies working on agentic and real world AI products. Tesla is at the forefront. The AI space right now needs Tesla to succeed more than ever. If Cybercabs and Optimus are able to replace even a few hundred to a thousand human operated jobs this year then the AI boom will start to pivot towards the production side. Pick axe and shovel plays will still do fine, but the rotation to producers will be rapid.
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$TSLA 5 yr chart perfect cup + handle pattern complete...ATH incoming
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$TSLA TSLAQ fixates on Tesla's PE while ignoring they've accrued over $6B in non cash expenses such as depreciation over the prior 12 months. When a company is in expansion mode, building more output (factories, etc) you should expect their earnings to reflect those expenditures. If a company is able to increase their free cash flow while spending on that revenue expansion it shows an incredible efficiency. As an investor that is the type of management that you trust with bold growth that will require billions in CapEx.
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$TSLA there is an inordinate amount of negative chatter on X lately regarding how FSD is still not a 'real' example of Tesla's lead in AI. To be fair most of the negativity is just the usual TSLAQ stuff and they have been calling for Tesla to fail for over a decade. We know how well that worked out for Jim Chanos. Yet today there is a surprising segment of prior Tesla supporters and fans who are also turning negative. From my perspective this is a very odd time to turn pessimistic towards Tesla. What they have already accomplished is nothing short of incredible. What they are going to accomplish with AI/Robotics will be transformative. Tesla will play an outsized role in expanding GDP over the next decade through more efficient Labor, Energy and Transportation. The pie is about to expand, fight the urge to allow of the negativity to convince you otherwise.
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$TSLA during the Superbowl it was great to see Starlink advertise and now during the Derby telecast another Starlink commercial. Likewise it's beyond time for Tesla to advertise FSD. The majority of people don't even know you can buy/lease a Tesla and pay $99/month to have a car that will so all of the driving. The average buyer doesn't know what they're missing and word of mouth at this point isn't a strategy.
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$TSLA is it just me or has TSLAQ been way more vocal than normal. Collectively they may be the most ignorant group of people in the planet. Imagine vocalizing your skepticism even more than usual just as Tesla Cybercab goes into production, fully autonomous Robotaxis are in their existing fleet (albeit still cautiously small) and Fremont is reconfiguring its space/lines for initial production of Optimus 3?!?
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$TSLA whether you like Elon or not, whether you trust his guidance or not, you can't dispute that his leadership resulted in the first reusable rocket booster and soon ship as well. Other countries and companies are just now starting to land their boosters... SpaceX has done this hundreds of times. Tesla has manufactured and sold more BEVs than every other company in the US combined. In Europe they have dominated markets like Norway with strong EV adoption. China is what makes Tesla a special company. The Chinese government doesn't allow foreign companies to build their own manufacturing plants, there is always a jv with a Chinese company....with one exception Tesla. The Chinese EV makers have benefited greatly from having Tesla as the standard bearer. Many competitors use the same design aspects including the large display screen with minimal buttons. Now that brings us to Optimus, a humanoid bot in development which Elon has said will be the biggest product in history. That's a big statement and one that I think he isn't saying lightly. Bots will replace human work, bots with the best inference will be capable of doing any task, from the easiest to the most complex. So why is Elon concerned about the competition as it pertains to bots when he never expressed the same concerns with EVs or other Tesla technologies? I think as with AGI in the wrong hands he is concerned about the outcomes. Tesla developing the best bot will result in copycats and unlike cars or rockets, eventually the cost to manufacture bots will be less than $5k. He understands the risk of a world where millions of bots are being produced by companies that don't have good intentions.
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