We provide commercial risk management services & advanced quantitative analytics for commodity hedgers inside of a leading investment bank (Hilltop Securities).
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Here's the RIPPER!!!!! The choice rib primal value is off the charts!!!! Middle meats are overperforming and the chuck is coming along for the ride. Strong cutout can translate to long live cattle futures signals by the financial trade.
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Implied volatility of the Chicago #wheat December 25 delta call rose sharply today. Seasonally implied vol of the 25 delta call starts to declining in late October. The US dollar is strong and US exports are stagnant and time decay can be a options writers best friend.
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As beef prices stay elevated packer margins are seasonally strong and just at the 5 year seasonal average. The choice cutout is being supported by the rib which is a RIPPER!!! and trading at seasonal highs. Negotiated #cattle prices are firm in the North.
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Despite the record earnings in oilseeds, cattle and marked to market losses on cocoa trading dragged Cargill's Q1 earnings down 52% from last year. The article also points out restructuring, how many is this over the last 10 years?? is still "ongoing".
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Bloomberg's analyst survey for US and global #cotton for October's WASDE report on Friday, October 9. The mean pre-report survey estimates that US production will decline to 12.97 mb (we're at 12.90 with downside room) and ending stocks at 3.46 mb, -.14mb from September.
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Estimated CME Feeder #cattle index for 10/5 +$.92 @ $337.76/cwt.
Missouri Direct = RIPPER!!!! +$19.77/cwt WoW
OK Direct = RIPPER!!! +$15.50/cwt WoW
Ft Pierre, SD = RIPPER!!! $345.17/cwt
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Good read….the Journal doesn’t discuss how steep gasoline costs impact people who drive cars to the office. Are businesses allowing more office flexibility to combat punitive fuel costs? As population of Xburbs soars is remote work back? Good questions
wsj.com/economy/truckers-are…
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Same route east of Lorenzo, TX….irrigated #cotton in the areas we surveyed are underperforming and the boll counts in these fields are well below last year and softer than 2023. The unrelenting heat was a major problem. NASS’s production estimate Friday will be interesting.
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Over the last 10 years NASS has cut US #soybeans yields in 2 of the 3 El Nino years and made a slight increase in 2015. We see NASS reducing the soy yield by .4 bpa in the October WASDE to 52.4 bpa.
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US ag take note..1. Volume is global. 2. The supply may be a fraction of the headline figure because volumes from an earlier release plan have NOT been released 3. The statement didn’t specify how much crude and diesel would be released or provide a breakdown of new commitments.
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When traveling to Lubbock, TX @eviemaesbbq should be at the top of anyone’s dining list. World class bbq paired with amazing deserts were most welcome after touring the #cotton fields on Tuesday morning.
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As maritime traffic starts moving through the SoH fertilizer supply pressures are abating. Recent data shows uera shipments heading for India. Brazil and the US should be recipients soon enough.
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Dryland #cotton around Lubbock is bad. Not secret but it’s bad. Recent rains are of no assistance. Even the irrigated doesn’t look great. Obviously better than dryland but the boll counts are down compared to last year. 2026 production and yields are lower than NASS is reporting
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