愿一轮圆月，为你和挚爱之人带来温暖、团圆与幸福。🌕 HTX Research 祝大家中秋快乐！Happy Mid-Autumn Festival! 🥮

HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe notes that the one-month base case is consolidation near recent highs in U.S. equities, with scope for $BTC and $ETH to recover after digesting recent gains. Opportunities are expected to concentrate in assets supported by earnings delivery or observable capital inflows, assuming no material deterioration in inflation, resilient earnings expectations, and continued demand for crypto ETFs. On the macro front, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% on September 16, while U.S. August CPI rose 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, with core CPI up 0.3% monthly. Rate pressure remains, and the pass-through of higher oil prices into inflation is a key risk. Cooling inflation alongside stable employment would support risk appetite, whereas a sharp employment slowdown could trigger earnings downgrades that offset the benefit of lower yields. U.S. equities retain fundamental support. FactSet projects third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.9%, up from 26.7% expected at the end of June, with the forward P/E at 19.1, close to its ten-year average. Valuations near historical norms offer some cushion but do not make equities inexpensive in a higher-rate environment, and these estimates still await confirmation through reported results. Over the coming month, equity upside will depend increasingly on earnings delivery, and a sustained breakout would benefit from stabilizing yields. Within AI infrastructure, companies converting orders into profits and cash flow should be better positioned than those supported mainly by capex narratives. In crypto, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $1.714 billion in net inflows on September 21–22, alongside $432 million into Ethereum ETFs. Demand has extended to ETH, but two sessions cannot establish a persistent trend. BTC's reversal from above $87,000 to below $84,000 on September 23 shows that macro shocks can still interrupt strong ETF demand. The base case is an initial consolidation before a clearer direction emerges. Positive five-session ETF flows, a sustained recovery above $87,000, and declining Treasury yields would strengthen the case for a test of $90,000, while negative five-session flows accompanied by lower price lows would invalidate the recovery thesis. ETH has identifiable flow support, but a broad altcoin advance still requires evidence of wider spot demand. Key releases ahead include PCE on September 30, payrolls on October 2, and CPI on October 14. The October 27–28 FOMC meeting falls outside this outlook's horizon, though policy expectations will be priced in beforehand. A single positive session cannot confirm the trend, just as one negative session cannot invalidate the base case, and the outlook will evolve with inflation, corporate guidance, and capital flows. *The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product. #HTX #BTC

HTX DeepThink 专栏作者、HTX Research 研究员 Chloe 分析指出，未来一个月美股或维持高位震荡，BTC 与 ETH 在整理后仍有修复空间，机会将集中于盈利与资金流能够得到验证的资产。这一判断的前提是通胀未进一步明显恶化、企业盈利预期保持韧性，以及加密 ETF 需求得以延续。 宏观层面，美联储 9 月 16 日加息 25 个基点至 3.75%—4%，美国 8 月 CPI 同比上涨 3.4%、环比上涨 0.4%，核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3%。利率压力尚未解除，油价向通胀的传导仍是主要风险。若通胀降温且就业稳定，风险偏好有望回升；若就业骤然走弱，盈利下修可能抵消利率回落带来的利好。 美股仍有盈利支撑。FactSet 预计标普 500 第三季度盈利同比增长 28.9%，高于 6 月底的 26.7%，未来 12 个月市盈率为 19.1 倍，接近十年均值。估值接近历史均值可为调整提供缓冲，但在高利率环境下并不意味着市场便宜，且上述盈利仍属分析师预期，有待财报兑现。未来一个月，美股上行将更依赖盈利兑现，指数突破需要收益率企稳配合；AI 基础设施中，订单能够转化为利润与现金流的企业相对占优，单靠资本开支叙事的公司可能进一步分化。 加密方面，9 月 21 日至 22 日美国现货 BTC ETF 合计净流入约 17.14 亿美元，ETH ETF 净流入约 4.32 亿美元，资金需求已延伸至 ETH，但两日数据尚不足以确认趋势。BTC 于 9 月 23 日突破 8.7 万美元后又跌破 8.4 万美元，说明强劲申购仍可能被宏观冲击打断。基准情景是先消化近期涨幅，再由资金流决定突破方向：若五日 ETF 累计净流入保持为正、BTC 重新站稳 8.7 万美元且美债收益率回落，市场或将测试 9 万美元；若五日资金流转负并出现价格低点下移，修复判断将失效。ETH 已获资金支持，全面山寨行情则仍需更广泛的现货需求确认。 后续关键窗口包括 9 月 30 日 PCE、10 月 2 日非农与 10 月 14 日 CPI。10 月 27 日至 28 日的 FOMC 会议虽在本次展望期之外，政策预期仍会提前反映在价格中。单日上涨不足以确认趋势，单日回调也不足以推翻基准情景，判断需随通胀、业绩指引与资金流持续更新。 注：本文内容并非投资意见，亦不构成任何投资产品之要约、要约招揽或建议。 #HTX #BTC

🔎 重磅推出 HTX Research 加密市场周度展望 —— 全新周度系列，回顾影响市场走势的重要事件，并聚焦接下来值得关注的关键动向。每周，我们将精选 3 个可能影响未来数日加密市场走势的关键事件。 本周，我们重点关注： 1、特朗普中东「大决定」将至 中东局势本周可能重新成为全球市场的重要扰动项，核心并不只是地缘冲突本身，而是其是否进一步传导至原油、通胀预期与美元流动性。若局势明显升级，油价与美元可能同步走强，市场风险偏好承压，BTC 短期也更容易被当作高 Beta风险资产交易，而非单纯的避险资产。对加密市场而言，需要重点观察原油、美元指数以及美债收益率是否形成共振上行。 2、日元干预窗口临近 日元持续走弱后，日本当局的干预预期正在重新升温，市场需要警惕汇率波动向全球 Carry Trade仓位传导。若日本正式入市干预，日元快速升值可能触发部分杠杆交易平仓，从而短期收紧全球风险资产流动性。对 $BTC 而言，日元本身不是核心变量，真正重要的是全球杠杆资金是否因此出现去风险化，以及美元流动性是否同步受到冲击。 3、市场消化美联储加息余波 美联储重新释放偏紧信号后，市场正在重新定价利率路径，美元、美债收益率和风险资产估值之间的博弈仍未结束。对于 BTC 来说，短期最大的约束依然来自 Real Yield和美元走强，而不是加密市场自身的基本面变化。本周需要观察的是，这轮流动性冲击是否已经被市场充分消化；如果美元和美债收益率停止继续上行，BTC 可能重新回到自身资金面和结构性交易逻辑。 #HTX #Crypto #Bitcoin

🔎 Introducing the HTX Research Weekly Crypto Market Forecast — a new weekly series connecting the events that shaped the market with the key developments to watch next. Each week, we’ll spotlight 3 key events that could shape crypto in the days ahead. Here’s what we’re watching this week: 1. Trump’s Middle East “Big Decision” Approaches Middle East developments could re-emerge as a key source of global market volatility this week. The main risk is whether geopolitical tensions spill over into oil prices, inflation expectations, and U.S. dollar liquidity. A significant escalation could push both oil and the dollar higher, weighing on risk appetite and causing $BTC to trade more like a high-beta risk asset than a safe haven. Key indicators to watch are crude oil, the U.S. Dollar Index, and U.S. Treasury yields. 2. Yen Intervention Risk Rises As the yen continues to weaken, expectations of intervention by Japanese authorities are increasing. A sharp yen appreciation following intervention could trigger an unwind of leveraged carry trades, temporarily tightening global risk-asset liquidity. For BTC, the key risk is not the yen itself, but whether intervention triggers broader deleveraging and pressure on U.S. dollar liquidity. 3. Markets Digest Fed Tightening Following renewed hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, markets continue to reprice the rate outlook. For BTC, the main near-term headwinds remain higher real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar rather than crypto-specific fundamentals. The key question this week is whether the liquidity shock has been fully priced in. If the dollar and Treasury yields stabilize, BTC could refocus on its own liquidity conditions and structural market drivers. #HTX #MarketToday #Crypto #Bitcoin

Good Morning folks... BTC has finally reach 85k! 🚀

HTX Research 聚焦代币化股票、Meme 币与 #DeFi 交汇下的新兴趋势：股票关联 Meme 币。 随着股票资产逐步上链，其角色已不再局限于投资标的，也开始成为新市场中的报价资产与流动性基础。 HTX Research 最新报告将深入解析这一新兴 AMM 模式的运作机制、价值捕获路径，以及高 LP 收益能否转化为可持续的流动性与协议收入。 👉 点击阅读完整报告 bit.ly/4ySdSjO #HTX #Crypto

📢 HTX Research takes a closer look at an emerging trend at the intersection of tokenized equities, memecoins and #DeFi: stock-linked memecoins. As stocks move onchain, they are becoming more than investment assets — they can also serve as quote assets and liquidity building blocks for new markets. Our latest report explores how this emerging AMM model works, where value may accrue, and whether high LP yields can translate into sustainable liquidity and protocol revenue. 👉 Read the full report here: htxresearch.medium.com/htx-r… #HTX #Crypto #Research #Memecoins #Bitcoin #BTC

🐂 $BTC breaks $85K. We’re so back.

gmeowing, 🐈 who’s ready to lock in?

19 Sept is the official Batman Day. Happy Batman's Day to all you comic, crypto lovers! 🥳 🦇 "It’s not who I am underneath, but what I do that defines me.” (Bruce Wayne/ Batman Begins)

gm happy friday 😼 who’s ready for battle?