Norman C Grosman Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. Co-Founder of VoxChina @voxchina2017. My tweets are my own.

Philadelphia, PA
Asset privatization as intergenerational redistribution instrument has the automatic stabilizer property, while pension based redistribution faces downward rigidity when growth slows down and population ages…
Subsidized access to appreciating public assets in rapidly growing economies can serve as a powerful instrument for intergenerational redistribution, from Kaiji Chen, @HanmingF, and Yang Tang nber.org/papers/w35754
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Pleased to receive the proofs for my forthcoming Cambridge Element titled “Addressing Population Ageing in China: Public Policy and Institutional Innovations”. It summarizes my understanding of the Chinese ageing issues and possible solutions. Links will be posted here later here
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Why it is so important to get to the bottom of how this tragedy could have happened in such a great university… Besides Keynes, Cambridge economics was the intellectual home for Alfred Marshall, AC Pigou, Frank Ramsey, Joan Robinson, Frank Hahn, James Meade, Sen, Dasgupta, etc.
The University of Cambridge can boast 126 Nobel Prizes. That’s more than any other university in the world except Harvard, and it does it on an endowment that is one twentieth the endowment of Harvard. In the Nobel ranking, Cambridge beats MIT, Chicago, Columbia, Oxford, and Yale (in that order). Cambridge, the university of Newton, Hawking, Russell, Wittgenstein, Moore, Keynes, Crick, Sanger, Kendrew, Perutz, Rutherford, Chadwick, Turing, Maxwell, Brenner, the list goes on and on, Cambridge is beyond question one of the very greatest universities in the world. The list of immense distinction continues to the present day. It is tragic, and deeply unfair, that the reputation of this truly great university should suffer at the hands one unfortunate anomaly, the Department of Education.
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I agree with every word you say. I have to say that, on my just concluded sabbatical at Cambridge, I met amazing first rate scholars in evolutionary ecology, in climate science, in dense material physics, in Chinese history, etc. What just transpired is shocking to me.
I strongly believe that knowledge is fundamental to running a society. We need economists who understand monetary policy in central banks. We need researchers who have studied history, strategy, and military affairs to help steer national defense. We need doctors and public health experts to design effective responses to epidemics. But the public needs sound reasons to let these experts shape their future. Once that trust evaporates, we are all worse off. Unfortunately, the Jason Arday scandal is the perfect example of how these experts, and the institutions they run, are destroying that trust. I do not find Arday’s tales extraordinary. Throughout history, there are thousands of examples of people spinning fantastic tales about their lives. He is just one more name on a long list of confidence men. What is extraordinary is the massive institutional failure at every level. Liverpool John Moores University granting a degree for a Ph.D. dissertation that did not survive even basic scrutiny (including a grammatical mistake in its title). Cambridge University appointing him (full) professor at an unusually early academic age (eight years after his dissertation; in academia, this is what matters, not your biological age) and with a scholarly record that was rather thin. Hilary Cremin (@hilarycremin), head of the Faculty of Education, telling the world on television that Arday was “the best in the world in terms of the research that you do.” The BBC broadcasting segments about Arday, a most unusual decision for an academic appointment. Simon & Schuster paying him a large advance for his memoirs on the basis of a book proposal that defied common sense. And Amazon promoting his book, still this very morning, as an editor’s pick. If I were a regular person, say someone driving a truck in the Midlands or working at a small shop in Sussex, how could I trust the universities any longer? How could I trust the BBC and the media? How could I trust the publishing industry? How could I trust Amazon’s editor’s picks? Then, should we be surprised if the farmer or the shop owner votes for someone selling snake oil? Or if they refuse to listen to the case for policies that cost them in the short run but benefit them in the long run, such as the transition to net zero emissions? Or if they read books written by charlatans? Or if they deny basic scientific findings? The universities, the media, the publishing industry, Amazon, and many of our other core knowledge institutions have a serious problem. Their response is to close ranks and avoid a serious discussion. No, sorry, this will not do. The Jason Arday scandal should be a moment of reckoning. Unfortunately, I am afraid it will not be.
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My Cambridge Element titled “Addressing Population Ageing in China: Public Policy and Institutional Innovations” has entered the production process. Will be open access the first two weeks when it comes out. Link will be posted here. Please DM me if you like an early view.
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Anyone with any understanding of economics knows how this will end. Average net profit margin in grocery business ranges between 1 to 3%; the gross profit (before deducting operating cost, shrinkage/spoilage etc) margin is between 20-25%.
Chief Nerd
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Hanming Fang retweeted
Arguing that the “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once two strands of the tradition are separated and recognize that modernization affected them very differently, from @HanmingF and Chang Liu nber.org/papers/w35532
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In new working paper, we ask why East Asian countries, China, Japan and Korea, now have the lowest total fertility rate, despite the fact that the Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on large families, i.e. Confucian Fertility Paradox. nber.org/system/files/workin…
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Under such an approach, students who score above a specified threshold on the college entrance examination would enter a lottery for admission to the top-tier institutions for which competition is most intense. 9/n
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If threshold were set high enough to ensure that admitted students could succeed academically, but not so high that students + their parents felt compelled to organize their lives around the examination, the system could substantially weaken the educational “arms race.” 10/n=10
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Hanming Fang retweeted
High-speed rail may have helped fuel China’s EV boom by easing range anxiety and spurring charging rollout while amplifying its impact. HSR may account for up to one-third of China’s EV market-share growth, highlighting complementarities between intercity transit and EV adoption.
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High-speed rail may have helped fuel China’s EV boom by easing range anxiety and spurring charging rollout while amplifying its impact. HSR may account for up to one-third of China’s EV market-share growth, highlighting complementarities between intercity transit and EV adoption.
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3. HSR and charging infrastructure reinforce each other. Cities with HSR, by building the critical mass of EV drivers, start to expand charging stations; also charging infrastructure has a stronger effect on EV adoption when paired with HSR.
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4. Consumer subsidies work better when HSR is available. Purchase incentives are more effective in HSR-connected cities, suggesting complementarities between transportation infrastructure and EV policy.
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