Co-founder of Hedgeye with 30 years of experience covering retail. Was Executive Director at Morgan Stanley, ran the consumer franchise at Copper Arch Capital.
Stamford, CT
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$BOOT is taking up store adds by 10-15% for '27, but is taking DOWN revenue forecast. Can anyone with half a brain convince me that this is a positive development? Never ends well...
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$CVNA looks like it's sacrificing loan monetization to drive units. This is a very slippery slope my friends. We've been short this, and 100% wrong, to be transparent and accountable. But the fundamental story looks like its starting to show signs of erosion on the margin.
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And don't forget...this company took 3% price this year and just comped a measly 1.4%. Volume/Units trending negative...
We've been short $BOOT for the last $80 in downside. I think the stock still gets cut in half from here. Terrible trends this quarter -- squarely decelerating across the board into 3Q. E-comm SSS turned negative in Oct. In what world should ecomm EVER be negative? This company is signing below market rents and is overearning massively. Incremental ROIC looks deathly...
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We've been short $BOOT for the last $80 in downside. I think the stock still gets cut in half from here. Terrible trends this quarter -- squarely decelerating across the board into 3Q. E-comm SSS turned negative in Oct. In what world should ecomm EVER be negative? This company is signing below market rents and is overearning massively. Incremental ROIC looks deathly...
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And numbers are STILL too high!
Crime Dog McGough @HedgeyeRetail dailed the SELL call on $BOOT
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Brian McGough retweeted
BREAKING: Brian McGough @HedgeyeRetail nails the $LULU SELL Call (been short it from $470)
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Dude...it flat out collapsed, not just a crack! Great call sticking with this one #ShortSide.
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$LULU...what a joke. We've been short since $470. And anyone listening to #TheCall this week heard @KeithMcCullough and I going back and forth about how The Signal and the Fundamentals weakening were aligning in a way that got this stock on our Top 5 Most actionable shorts earlier this week. #boom
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Brian McGough retweeted
$SHEIN struggling to catch a bid on HK IPO
We laid out our view earlier this week...Competition and regulation are intensifying, de minimis + tariffs have structurally changed the model, and SHEIN is unable to pass higher costs to an elastic consumer without eroding the ultra low cost value prop / destroying volume. Not to mention the margin implications that come with higher duties, potential regulatory induced infrastructure buildouts, and deteriorating CAC as TikTok shop and Temu increasingly target an overlapping consumer.
Staying far away from this IPO
To be fair, the LATR model is an incredible asset, enabling ~36 DIO and nearly 2mm new styles/year. But that alone can't pull this name up by its bootstraps in the face of a deteriorating economic model.
@HedgeyeRetail @HedgeyeRetail_2
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Brian McGough retweeted
Nice SELL call buy The Crime Dog (McGough) @HedgeyeRetail on $BURL this morning
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$ANF today...for real? I have no skin in the game here, but a 35% move makes zero sense given that strength in Abercrombie was literally offset by a decel at Hollister. Stock trading as if a short book got blown up and tapped out on this.
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Brian McGough retweeted
$DKS traded 38.4M shares today, which is ~43% of its 89.5M SO, and its highest volume day since May 25, 2022.
The stock closed down 30.7%, its worst single day decline since its 2002 IPO.
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Brian McGough retweeted
$DKS showing the downstream impact of $NKE's promotional reset. $DKS rolled out the red carpet for $NKE and is now matching promotions to protect share as excess inventory spills across the marketplace.
$ONON, $ADDYY, and $DECK all called out elevated athletic footwear promos this quarter. Exactly what @HedgeyeRetail_3 flagged a few weeks ago.
@HedgeyeRetail
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This short has been money for us this summer. Down -17% into the print on heavy volume (ie someone got the memo early) and down another 25% today. $DKS #DickLocker
$DKS getting smoked on earnings and FL increasingly the issue
Fast Break was supposed to be the easy fix. Now management is slowing the rollout and no longer quantifying Fast Break comps after calling out +DD growth last quarter.
The “easy fixes” appearing incapable of driving a return to growth, while the broader wholesale footwear backdrop continues to deteriorate.
@HedgeyeRetail
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Brian McGough retweeted
Great week for Signal Strength Stocks long $KMX @HedgeyeRetail
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Brian McGough retweeted
$ROST Shot a little high... Still a solid quarter. Even tho I think the bulls should have been hoping for a higher comp number.
250bps comp decel on 2yr avg with tougher base effects coming
Mgmt guiding for the 2yr to re-accelerate which makes the easy beat and raise cadence we have seen get incrementally tougher.
Will follow the data.. Probably gets harder from here but more to come...
$ROST Going to beat comp estimates this week by....Close to 100%. Modeling 15% vs 7.7% Street estimates.
Also going to see significant margin leverage through this year
Best Off-Pricer to own right now...
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Brian McGough retweeted
$ROST Going to beat comp estimates this week by....Close to 100%. Modeling 15% vs 7.7% Street estimates.
Also going to see significant margin leverage through this year
Best Off-Pricer to own right now...
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Brian McGough retweeted
$AS out with another Stellar Q this morning. Brands are running hot, Americas growth accelerating, even EMEA growing 20%+ despite tougher backdrop. See China deceleration as largely CNY effect.
@HedgeyeRetail
Salomon putting up crazy #'s right now. Arc'teryx remains the crown jewel for $AS. Multiple constrained on Salomon fad concerns. Still think this name has some juice on the TAIL and tremendous unit/share growth opportunity in the U.S. in particular.
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