The case will likely make it to Supreme Court but it cuts across typical ideological viewpoints - Conservative justices are textual originalists, which favors Kalshi since the swap definition is broad. But they are also committed to states’ rights, which favors the states. - Liberal justices are typically pro-federal regulatory authority but skeptical of financial industry arguments and sympathetic to consumer protection.

Excellent post on how crypto is finance but finance is expanding. 1. We’re headed towards a billion active traders. More people now have an “edge” investing in what they know - TikTok trends, games they play, products they use. 2. Permissionless markets allow users to express new behaviors that later pull regulators and institutions forward. E.g. Polymarket ran offshore when banned, then market proved demand, and regulation followed. 3. Markets, price signals, prediction market outcomes, and onchain flows become inputs that any application and agent can act on. Was fun to riff with Jesse on these ideas!