Retired left & right brained modeler of quantitative investment systems. Publishing monthly column at thefredreport.com/

Vancouver, BC Canada
The performance of our Trend Asset Allocation Model has been updated to 29-Sep-2025 1 year: Model 12.7% vs. 60/40 12.9% 2 years: Model 20.4% vs. 60/40 17.9% 3 years: Model 16.9% vs. 60/40 15.3% 5 years: Model 10.9% vs. 60/40 8.8% humblestudentofthemarkets.co…
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5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend As Xi visits the White House, a reminder that the Chinese stock market is not representative of the Chinese economy. The US, Europe, and Japan have risen steadily since the GFC while $FXI has been choppy and flat.
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4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend The animal spirits are back (2)! $BTC and the relative performance of speculative growth $ARKK are gaining bids
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3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend The animal spirits are back (1)! Relative performance of momentum factor showing higher highs (at least in September) $MTUM $JMOM $PDP $OMOM $FDMO
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2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend TACO or TALO (Trump Always Lashes Out)? 10-year Treasury yield and $MOVE argue for an Iranian TACO, but... $SPX and $VIX are tame and point to TALO
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1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Dashboard (from best to worse) $QQQ testing resistance $SPX $ACWX (ACWI ex-US) range-bound, holding above support $SPXEW $IWM testing/breaking support
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Posturing before the TACO pivot? Signum Global TACO Index marketwatch.com/story/wall-s…
BREAKING: Iran has issued "Code 100," its highest alert level, for all armed forces in the past hour, covering the IRGC, the Army and security forces, per initial reports. Trump cut short his weekend at Camp David to return to the White House tonight citing the potential for significant escalation, Netanyahu cut short his US trip to return to Israel the same day, and every US embassy in the Middle East has issued a security alert in the past hours.
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5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Arbitrage opportunity? BAML Fund Manager Survey consensus has consistently called for an R controlled Senate and D controlled House, while Polymarket consensus calls for a D sweep.
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4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend As Warren Buffett steps away from Berkshire Hathaway, here is the relative performance of BRK.B against the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Value Index since the Dot-Com Bubble top in 2000
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3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend As the 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 5%, shouldn't the forward P/E on the $SPX be a lot lower on a fair value basis?
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1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Did the $SPX break out of a bull flag while exhibiting a minor bullish divergence on % of stocks above their 20 dma?
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5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Time for a rally? 2 of my 5 bottom spotting indicators flashed simultaneous buy signals $VIX spiked above its upper BB $NYMO became oversold
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4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend So bad that it's good? The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator reached an oversold reading on Thursday (dotted blue lines are ZBT buy signals)
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3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Breadth looks ugly as $SPX tested support
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2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend #Inflation expectations are risiing and $USD is falling
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1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Market Dashboard $SPX consolidating 10-year yield rising sharply to levels not seen since the October 2023 peak
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If the bond market really believes that pledge, would it represent an American Liz Truss moment? Asking for a friend
The pay-for is the chef's kiss "Giving every American adult $5,000 would cost more than $1 trillion. Trump suggested the money could come in part from revenue from tariffs." wsj.com/politics/elections/f…
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How to spike the long bond yield 😱
Trump Promises Americans $5,000 Each if Republicans Win Midterms wsj.com/livecoverage/vance-t… via @wsj
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Why the Fed needs to raise by 50 bps in September 😱
Exclusive: Trump plans to send $500 Obamacare rebates before election axios.com/2026/09/09/trump-o…
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Remember what Machiavelli said about mercenaries in "The Prince": They can't be trusted to be there when you really need them.
The U.S. government pays Blackwater (now rebranded Academi) contractors roughly $1,200 per day per operative, compared to approximately $180 per day for a U.S. Army soldier with equivalent field skills. Politicians cite this as proof that privatization fails. The market is clearing information that the military bureaucracy buries. Private military contractors operate under genuine profit-and-loss discipline. Erik Prince built Blackwater by delivering specialized capability, rapid deployment, and zero pension liability to clients. If his teams performed badly in Fallujah or Kabul, contracts dried up. That accountability structure does not exist inside the Pentagon, where generals preside over catastrophic failures and collect full retirement packages. The premium price tells you something important: the market is clearing information that the military bureaucracy buries. When the State Department paid Blackwater $1.2 billion between 2004 and 2009 to protect diplomats in Iraq, it was purchasing specific expertise, speed, and contractual liability that the Army's chain of command structurally cannot provide. You get what you pay for, and Congress mostly gets armies optimized for procurement politics rather than combat effectiveness. The real scandal is that the government monopolizes violence, crowds out genuine private security competition through regulatory barriers, then acts surprised when the one vendor who slips through charges accordingly. Monopoly always produces high prices and low accountability. The contractor market is not too free. It is not free enough. Blackwater's premium reflects genuine scarcity. The Pentagon's bloated baseline reflects what happens when no one faces a profit-and-loss statement.
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5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend Strong August #NFP report, but average hourly earnings is losing pace to inflation
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