“The bond vigilantes will revolt.” 📺piped.video/F888T3SIBhU

I think the weekly Bitcoin close will lay the groundwork for what Q4 will look like. If Bitcoin accepts above the May high, that will improve the bull case substantially. Acceptance back below would just look like a massive fakeout before typical Q4 weakness (but not necessarily to a new low). You don't have to predict what happens, I think reacting is better in this case.

A lot of people interpreted this post in many different ways. I did not realize it would be viewed almost 4M times and that it would end up being one of my most liked posts on this platform, so I wanted to expand on it a bit. If you watched any of my recent videos, all of what I'm about to say are things you have already heard. I think admitting when we are wrong about something is important, as it helps us grow as investors and hopefully allows us to make fewer mistakes in the future. It also communicates to those who choose to listen to our views that we recognize we are fallible. Pretending to be right about everything is silly, and gaslighting an audience by saying "exactly as predicted" about everything is exhausting and not representative of the truth. I also really appreciate all the support many of you showed. It genuinely means a lot. My goal in being on here has always been to help people navigate markets, so when I get something wrong, I think it is important to acknowledge it rather than pretend it did not happen. Since many people took the original post to mean different things, I wanted to clarify what I was actually admitting I was wrong about. Specifically, my post was about Bitcoin taking out the May high, which I had repeatedly said I did not think would happen. If I spend two months saying something is unlikely to happen, and then it happens, I cannot sit here and pretend like I was calling for it when I wasn't. Because of that, I felt I needed to acknowledge that I was wrong. I wish I had not been as deterministic, and that I had been more open-minded to the possibility of a higher high. I should hold myself accountable for my views by admitting when I get things wrong. But that is all my post was meant to convey. Some of the narratives that have developed from that post are not fully representative of my views. Bitcoin is still operating under a difficult macro backdrop that has caused it to underperform other markets for years. Until liquidity conditions improve, I think that relative underperformance could remain an issue. That does not mean Bitcoin cannot have rallies or bull markets, but it could mean that the gains are not as significant as they were during periods when liquidity was more free-flowing. Being wrong about the May high also does not automatically mean that I relinquish every other view I have expressed. I have discussed the possibility of Q4 2026 weakness since Q4 2025. With one week left before Q4 begins, I do not think Bitcoin making a higher high means I should suddenly pretend that view never existed. What it does mean is that I should be less deterministic about it and more willing to change my view as new information comes in. As long as Bitcoin remains above the May high, I have to respect the breakout. Continued acceptance above the range highs would increasingly challenge my broader bear market thesis, which I have honestly had a hard time letting go of. If Bitcoin instead closes a weekly candle back below the May high, then I think weakness into Q4 remains possible. Even then, the fact that Bitcoin already made a higher high could change what that weakness ultimately looks like. Q4 weakness would not necessarily require a new low. And importantly, if Bitcoin does show weakness in Q4, it does not change the fact that I was wrong about what Bitcoin already accomplished in Q3. I would rather use that experience to hopefully become a better investor than pretend it did not happen. The part I am still struggling to reconcile is the macro backdrop. Long-end yields have continued to rise, alongside the dollar and energy. I would normally expect that combination to eventually pressure long-duration assets like crypto. I do not fully understand Bitcoin's move to $87K from a macro perspective, but I can understand it from a technical analysis perspective (golden cross, RSI, etc.) That disconnect is part of why I have taken a step back and decided to be less deterministic. Continued acceptance above the range highs will force me to reconsider parts of my framework. A move back below them would make me more interested in the Q4 weakness thesis again. It is difficult for me to reconcile rising yields, DXY and energy with a sustained bullish Bitcoin move, especially going into Q4 of a midterm year, when Bitcoin has historically experienced significant weakness. But the market does not have to conform to my expectations. My goal going forward is to be more open to different outcomes, more critical of myself when communicating strongly held views, and more humble in my approach to markets. I am a student of the market, and I do not have a crystal ball. It's about time to see what Q4 has in store!

For the upcoming ITC conference, you may notice we have speakers from an array of different backgrounds with very different opinions. That is the point. I want to hear contrasting views rather than just hear everyone echo the same thing. That is how we all grow and learn.

🚨 ITC IS COMING TO MIAMI! 🌴 Join us for the first-ever ITC Conference, happening November 20–22 in Miami 🎟️ Get 10% OFF your ticket with code BTC10 Don’t miss it! benjamincowen.com/conference

NFA Live! What is Bitcoin Doing? nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1pJkOXLMe…

NFA Live! What is Bitcoin Doing? nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1vKpPNaBV…

Bitcoin: The Upside Down

Bitcoin broke through the May high this week, which I clearly got wrong. I thought that energy/yields/rates heading higher would immediately pressure Bitcoin. A weekly close above the May high would improve confidence in the rally. The long end rising recently is starting to pressure risk assets. So far, Bitcoin has shrugged it off, which caught me off guard. If that changes, and Bitcoin closes back below the range highs with this move ending up as just a wick, things can change quickly. I'm trying to be less deterministic about these outcomes. The rally above the May high certainly humbled me. For breakout traders, I think the weekly candle is worth watching closely for either confirmation of the breakout or a failed move back into the range, particularly with rates rising into a supply shock. I discussed this at length in my last video for anyone curious about a more serious discussion rather than just a brief post.

“Markets don’t have to make sense.” 📺piped.video/orda-VyV2rU

Check out the upcoming ITC Conference at benjamincowen.com/ and follow @ITCConf for updates

Looks like the long end is finally making the move to 6-6.5%