We are publishing an important update for $SMR 1/x
iceberg-research.com/2025/11…
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Despite a market cap of $7bn, NuScale has not sold a single reactor in its 18 years of existence. The 15 MOUs signed since 2019 have not materialized.
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In August, NuScale entered into a milestones agreement to help its prospective customer ENTRA1 commercialize 72 reactors. A payment of $495mn from NuScale to ENTRA1 was triggered after ENTRA1 signed yet another MOU with TVA.
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We found that ENTRA1 is based at a WeWork office in Houston, which ENTRA1 shares with NuScale.
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The terms of the agreement are extraordinarily generous to ENTRA1. The payment is expensed in NuScale’s financials rather than structured as a loan. If ENTRA1 is unable to sign a binding agreement with TVA and find any alternative client, NuScale will never recoup its money. ENTRA1 does not even have any obligation to choose NuScale as its reactor supplier.
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The shared address and these terms raise questions whether the contract was signed at arm’s length and whether funds are being siphoned out of NuScale.
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ENTRA1 is a subsidiary of the Habboush Group. The Habboush Group’s address is at a Regus office in New York. We were able to connect this group to infrastructure and energy projects in the Middle East run in the early 2010s but Habboush Group has absolutely no nuclear experience.
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NuScale’s other commercial efforts are faltering. As we expected, the MOU with Standard Power, a dubious crypto-mining firm has gone nowhere with no updates since May 2024.
Nov 14, 2025 · 3:29 PM UTC
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NuScale’s Romania project remains at the feasibility stage. The final investment decision was pushed back by a year and is not expected until late 2026 or early 2027. The planned site has also drawn safety concerns, as it reportedly sits near a methane pocket.
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Main shareholder Fluor has announced it will sell all its shares (32% of outstanding shares) by the end of Q2 2026.
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The root of the commercial failure is that NuScale is struggling against both incumbents (e.g. Westinghouse and GE-Hitachi) that share a similar technology to NuScale, and emerging startups, which offer alternative designs. NuScale faces challenges against:
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Incumbents: (1) no track record in project execution, (2) NuScale’s SMR is roughly 47% more expensive to build on a dollar-per-capacity basis, and (3) a rapidly eroding regulatory advantage, as incumbents leverage their experience and expertise to accelerate the licensing process.
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Startups: Security risk – NuScale’s light-water technology operates under high pressure, while startups like Kairos use molten salt reactors that can run near atmospheric pressure.
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SMRs are often promoted as an ideal energy source for AI data centers, offering clean and reliable power. But fossil fuels are once again in favor in the US. Cost and speed of deployment now dominate decision-making. SMRs fall short: they are more expensive than alternatives like gas, coal, firmed renewables, and their deployment is not expected until the early 2030s.
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