it is interesting to consider this; when I look back on those of them who were actually *right,* it becomes apparent to me that we seriously underestimate symbolic value basically all the time
the antidote to longtermism is to picture any longtermist who may have existed in history before today and game out the decisions they would have made with the information they had
it quickly becomes apparent that prediction and model errors are inevitable and ruinous
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That said the retrospective lens is biased. We like to metonymize great events by their individual leaders, but John Ball & George Washington & John Brown & MLK would have contributed little to human progress if they hadn't fought alongside big movements of like-minded comrades
Sep 18, 2026 · 3:38 PM UTC
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