When thinking becomes cheap, conviction becomes expensive.

2007 vs 2026: 30-yr Treasury yield same, everything else different. Jun 2007 → Aug 2026 30-yr Treasury yield ····· 5.35% → 5.28% S&P 500 ·················· 1,503 → 7,674 Fed funds rate ··········· 5.25% → 3.50-3.75% CPI inflation y/y ········ 2.7% → 3.4% US federal debt ·········· $8.9T → $39.8T Hard to read this as anything but a supply problem.

AI will never exceed the depth and breadth of human intelligence.

Being early and being wrong feel the same in the middle.

Five thousand years of the same fear. **Writing would ruin memory. **Printing would drown scholars. **Calculators would kill arithmetic. **Computers would swallow judgment. **The internet would make us shallow. There is no historical case where a tool that made thinking cheaper produced a civilization that thought less.

The louder the opinion, the costlier the update.

For the first time, every human carries a patient teacher that speaks their language, matches their level, and never makes them feel stupid for asking a basic question. The biggest gains in aggregate intelligence never come from making geniuses slightly smarter. They come from moving hundreds of millions of people from never asked to asks every day.

Satya is right

Every moat looks permanent from the inside.

Open-weight models are essential to a healthy AI ecosystem. Together with others across our industry, we are outlining a path for open-weight models to strengthen American competitiveness and expand economic opportunity, while protecting national security. microsoft.com/en-us/corporat…

Data centre demand to almost quadruple by 2035 Inference workloads will grow significantly and this is a big tailwind for the AI trade.

Act like you are right. Update like you are wrong.

Two prints tonight, one message. Alphabet $GOOGL beat with $119.8 billion of revenue and grew cloud 82%, then lifted its capex guide to as high as $205 billion and the stock fell on the call. Tesla $TSLA set a revenue record at $28.2 billion while its operating margin shrank to 1.4%, and it still raised capex 142% from a year ago. Customers are showing up everywhere you look. The money is going out faster than it is coming in, and both companies believe the fix is more compute.

Capex is a story. Earnings are the audit. $GOOGL #Earnings