America Cannot Build Another China in Its Own Hemisphere
Yesterday, Jorge Rodríguez, with his usual cynicism, claimed that Venezuela will hold elections—first legislative elections, followed by regional and municipal elections, and, ultimately, a presidential election.
There is something U.S. policymakers dealing with Venezuela need to understand: Jorge Rodríguez has led at least six of the 17 rounds of dialogue with the Chavista regime. In every single one, the regime failed to honor the agreements it reached.
But the legislative elections deserve particular attention.
In 2015, the opposition won Venezuela’s parliamentary elections. What did Jorge Rodríguez and the Chavista regime do? They created an unconstitutional Constituent Assembly with no legal basis, using it to usurp the powers of the legitimate National Assembly—the very institution the United States now recognizes as an interlocutor.
The opposition also won several governorships. What did the regime do? It installed parallel authorities in the states where the opposition had won, effectively stripping elected governors of their constitutional powers.
On paper, Venezuela was “democratizing.” In reality, the dictatorship was becoming more authoritarian and more repressive.
In 2017, more than 150 people were killed during protests, while thousands of opposition activists were imprisoned. In 2019, the country once again descended into mass protests and brutal repression, including acts that have been documented as crimes against humanity.
Who was one of the architects of that repression?
Delcy Rodríguez, who headed Venezuela’s political police and repressive apparatus, the SEBIN.
This is why legislative elections without a change in the executive branch would be extremely useful to the regime. They would allow Caracas to sell the international community the illusion that Venezuela is democratizing while leaving the machinery of repression completely intact.
And that machinery would simply be waiting for President Trump to leave office before being unleashed against Venezuelans once again.
If the Trump Administration’s objective is to sustain and legitimize a communist dictatorship that is fundamentally opposed to U.S. interests—which I sincerely pray is not the case—then this would be the perfect strategy: legitimize a criminal regime in the eyes of the international community while changing virtually nothing on the ground.
But if the Trump Administration genuinely wants a long-term strategic partnership with the Venezuelan people, durable U.S. investment in Venezuela, and a reliable energy partner capable of providing security and guarantees for those investments, then this approach would be suicidal.
Protecting the interests of the United States and the Venezuelan people also means protecting the interests of Venezuela’s neighbors and the broader Western Hemisphere. It means avoiding another massive migration crisis.
For that reason, a complete transition to authorities genuinely backed by the Venezuelan people should take place in 2027—while the Trump Administration still has the political leverage and the time necessary to ensure that meaningful changes are actually implemented and consolidated.
Waiting until 2028 would be a profound mistake.
It is a mistake the United States already made with China—and one the Trump Administration is now, correctly, attempting to reverse by reducing Beijing’s influence in the Western Hemisphere.
China would not be anywhere near as powerful as it is today without decades of assistance from previous U.S. administrations, which granted Beijing extraordinary economic concessions under policies designed for developing countries and helped transform China into an economic powerhouse at the expense of the United States and the broader West.
Venezuela must not become the next China.
If Venezuela’s political authorities do not fundamentally change, history could repeat itself. The oil revenues Venezuela receives over the coming decades could once again be used to finance terrorist organizations and far-left movements, threatening not only the Venezuelan people but democratic governments throughout Latin America.
The objective would not simply be to preserve the regime in Caracas. It would be to use Venezuela’s enormous energy wealth to rebuild a network of anti-American and authoritarian allies throughout the hemisphere.
That would ultimately threaten not only Venezuela and its neighbors, but the strategic interests of the American people and the security of the entire Western Hemisphere.