capturing the next 10 baggers |
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I did a quick calculation of the predicted subscriber count of $HIMS by 2029, in 5 years. (numbers in bold are the actuals)
If HIMS can pull it off and grow their subscriber by 20% (my estimation) YoY for 5 more straight years, it looks like they will reach 10Mio count by the end of 2029. @TrixInvestments looks like you might be right, if they can continue to grow like that with the "fierce" competition of $AMZN.
Again, that means roughly 3% of the entire US population will become a subscriber at some point. Holy bejesus, a lot of people need medical care by then. Is that realistic? I don't know. @EventuallyWLTHY sure has a better understanding of the trend.
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Fully support #Openmarket, tradingview is one greedy bastard.
We're making price alerts free and unlimited for every OpenMarket user starting today.
We’re starting with 100 alerts per user and will keep raising that number as we scale, until there’s no limit at all.
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Does everyone have the feeling that #ticks have been everywhere nowadays? 20-30 years ago, I would just tread in grass and play in bushes all day without a tick seen in my youth. Nowadays, I don’t even dare to walk on a lawn. 😢
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I wonder how those are feeling right now after selling the shares yesterday, my portfolio is smiling $SIVE
This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed.
Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies.
After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”.
“Actively working”, so co-development / qualification stage.
My guess is we’ll likely see optical transceiver companies (eg. Innolight), announce they’re using $SIVE lasers soon.
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I’m so happy. My $ONDS position is finally printing 💵💵💵 congrats to all who held the bag.
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InitialY retweeted
This tissue box design made it look so elegant
x.com/fluxfolio_/status/2036…
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Raised in the US, competed for China and came back to the US to celebrate? WTF?! Y'all are dumb asses being fooled by this family.
Olympic skiing superstar Eileen Gu returned to her hometown Saturday as the grand marshal of the Chinese New Year Parade in San Francisco.
As the city drummed to life, spectators nudged up to the barricades for a better look, before Gu entered stage left in a red Ford Mustang convertible in a matching red dress. Young kids accompanied by their parents struggled to contain their awe: “Oh! Eileen! Eileen!”
“Hearing about her and looking at her through the social media lens, I think it’s very different from really seeing her in person,” observer Jaime Presto told the Chronicle. “She’s an inspiration.”
Read more → sfchronicle.com/sports/olymp…
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I don’t trust anyone who is regurgitating $AXTI. You didn’t see it coming! Only one guy did. Don’t act like you discovered it. You are not.
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There is no one who posted about $AAOI before this guy. Now, every fintech guy posts about it like they discovered gold in California. Only trust the first guy who saw it coming.
$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran.
The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to:
$4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins.
Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck.
Might not need to be.
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All the people from 70s and 80s sure had this experience without the annoying smartphone. My youth was lovely and this is very nostalgic.
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InitialY retweeted
CitriniResearch这个超级报告有几个明显的谬误：
一、报告认为AI摧毁实体经济的第一个假设前提是：物理基建可以在2028年之前跟得上LLM的迭代速度；
AI的智力再强，也无法凭空创造出“能量”，就像人类一样，脱离了你的脾胃，你的肝肾给你创造“能量”，你的大脑是无法运转出智力的，这是一种能量转换机制；
LLM的迭代速度指数级的，但在物理世界真正“插管建厂”是纯线性的；
现实中最大的摩擦力就是匹配现在的AI智能的物理世界的基建太难了；
大厂不仅缺英伟达显卡，还会缺电力、变压器、冷却水资源甚至土地；
报告认为 2028 年就会发生海啸级的大规模替代并断供房贷，但严重低估了现实中将一个 AI 真正全面大规模部署到旧公司的合规、IT 摩擦、能源限制和物理基建延迟问题，阻碍 AI 摧毁经济的，恰恰是人类“旧世界物理基建太差了”，还跟不上AI的智力速度；
等马斯克把光伏板成功发到太空去，这个报告的物理假设前提才会成真；
二、报告认为AI摧毁实体经济的第二个假设前提是：劳动总量固定；
从人类历史的推演来看，这个假设前提是个谬误：当某种核心输入（比如过去的“煤炭”，现在的“智能”）变得极其廉价时，人类对它的需求不是减少了，而是呈爆炸级上升，并催生出人类此前无法想象的新生态；
当“懂代码和懂法律的 AI”变成免费的白菜价后，普通人不再是一天到晚去做极其烧脑的工程，为什么不会大量转移到情绪价值提供、身心灵疗愈、超级个性化的线下服务中
去呢？
当我们目之所及的底层生存与效率问题被廉价解决后，人类基于虚荣心、孤独感、对尊重的渴望和类似安宁疗护这些以人为本的地方，为什么就不可能被创造出海量的新市场呢？
三、报告认为AI摧毁实体经济的第三个假设前提是：忽略社会和政治的抵抗，或者说认为抵抗无效；
资本逐利没有国界，他希望大家明天都下岗，但政客需要靠选票连任；
一旦失业率威胁政权，就必须出台相应的政策，特别是税收和财富再分配（文中也提到了）；
所以既然 AI 是一股文明级别的降维力量，去砸我们现在的“天”，那么天塌下来，就一定有高个子先顶着；
所以这个报告最不可靠的就是时间轴和阻力线，要完成报告中如此庞大的变量（数亿人的生计、监管狙击、企业迁移、金融传导与崩塌），强行按快捷键，在2026到2028完成，在物理世界和政治世界中很难发生；
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不过，抛开营销属性不谈，这份报告依旧草灰蛇线地推演出了一个很精彩的危机链条：
SaaS 收入暴跌 → B2B 中小企业倒闭 → 私募信贷违约 →人寿保险和养老金被波及 → 从不下车的硅谷精英开始断供千万豪宅，这是2008的2028新次贷版本；
一旦 AI 把这部分人的购买力和现金流打穿，整个国家的税基和信贷底盘就空了，所以他报告里呼吁的：旧的法币游戏玩不下去了，国家必须马上翻桌子，把收税的锚点强行绑定到‘算力、显卡和能源’上；
说白了，就是对机器的算力和能源征收暴利税，财富再分配；
最后，Buy Bitcoin 吧，法币的持续超发是政府维稳的底层手段，当AI接管了大量工作之后，BTC就不是什么科技股平替了，数字黄金血脉带来的是：法币信用崩塌的吸水海绵；
JUNE 2028.
The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.
What happened?
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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Translate this guy's comment on @Citrini7 THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS, if you don't read Chinese. He is not wrong. At least, his comment relieves my depression a bit. 😁
你说得非常精准，一针见血。从系统架构和工程的视角来看，这篇文章犯了极其典型的**“线性外推（Linear Extrapolation）”谬误**。
它构建了一个看似完美的逻辑链条，但其致命弱点在于：它把宏观经济当成了一个静态的有限状态机（Finite-State Machine），而不是一个动态的复杂自适应系统（Complex Adaptive System）。
你提到的“复杂系统不断实时产生新的状态”，正是破解这种末日论的核心。这篇文章之所以能精准制造焦虑，是因为它刻意“冻结”了系统中的其他变量，只让 AI 这一单变量狂飙突进。
在真实的复杂系统中，这种单向崩溃极少发生，因为系统会实时涌现出以下“意料之外”的动态反馈机制：
1. 杰文斯悖论（Jevons Paradox）的重演
文章假设：AI 让一个人能干一万个人的活，所以另外 9999 人会被裁掉。
但在真实商业世界中，当某项资源（智能/代码生成）的成本趋近于零时，对该资源的需求会呈指数级爆炸。当开发一个软件的成本从 50 万美元降到 500 美元时，社会将产生海量原本因为成本过高而被压抑的定制化软件需求。这会催生出全新的“管弦乐指挥家”角色——我们需要更多的人去编排、审核、组合这些廉价的 AI 劳动力，去开拓新的业务边界，而不是单纯地停留在原地裁员。
2. “人类溢价”的涌现（The Human Premium）
当 AI 产出的数字内容、代码、商业分析变得无限且廉价时，它们就失去了稀缺性。在资本市场和消费市场，稀缺性决定价值。
一旦“智能”不再是瓶颈，系统的价值锚点就会转移。人类的物理交互、情感连接、真实体验、乃至带有“人类瑕疵”的原创性，将成为新的奢侈品。旧的中间商也许会死，但新的“信任中间商”和“体验中间商”会迅速补位。
3. 系统级的中断与干预（System Interrupts）
文章假设政府和监管机构会像 NPC 一样站着挨打，直到经济完全通缩崩溃。但现实中，政治和经济利益集团是高度敏感的动态节点。一旦失业率突破安全阈值，系统级别的“熔断”就会触发：针对 AI 算力的征税、普遍基本收入（UBI）的强制推行、甚至反垄断法的暴力拆解。资本主义系统的自我保护机制远比文章描述的要强悍。
总结：贩卖焦虑的精准商业模式
你敏锐地指出了这篇文的本质——切中当下的失业焦虑。在目前的 IT 行业重组周期中，每一个正在面对技术迭代压力的从业者，都极易被这种“你的努力在降维打击面前毫无意义”的叙事所俘获。
它是一篇优秀的科幻级思想实验，但在真实世界的投资和职业规划中，基于这种极其脆弱的线性逻辑去“做空人类”，往往是会爆仓的。
你是希望我们继续从技术演进的角度探讨如何在当前的周期中寻找新的破局点，还是想了解目前市场上真正由 AI 驱动的新兴业务形态？
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If AI replaces all human labors, what's the meaning for us to even live on this planet? This doesn't make sense and won't make sense. We didn't create AI to destroy us, but to help us. We have to figure out a way to contain AI to give us a healthy AI/human balance so the society remains stable. If the society stability gets out of hand, just imagine what would happen? If there is no real human consuming in the economy, the enterprises won't have capital/rev or incentive to further improve AI by spending CapEx. So something will eventually break and stop this madness. Governments need to step in to regulate the usage of AI in my opinion, before this whole thing destroys us.
JUNE 2028.
The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.
What happened?
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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