CFB Analytics |🏆 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge
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📊Recruit Expected Value v3
▫️Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit
▫️Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level":
- #1 Recruit is worth ~20X
- Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X
- Other 5 Star: 5-8X
- 4 Stars: 1-5X
▫️Spend NIL accordingly
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Florida vs Ole Miss Keys to the Game
1⃣Limit Chambliss scrambling & designed runs; big game for LBs
2⃣UF CBs have to win their 1:1s
3⃣Stay on schedule, if UF OL can protect Philo, Gators should score LOTS of points
4⃣The Swamp: need it to be loud & true HF advantage
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The capacity gap does exists but it's not equal for all
Historic data shows for undervalued recruit attributes by NFL draft value:
▫️Private school = 4 DV
▫️Rural = 5
▫️2+ STD pos norm height = 5
▫️1+ STD pos norm weight = 7
Delta between a #100 & #300 recruit is ~6 DV
1.04M kids played HS football last season. About 6,600 held a Rivals star rating… roughly 0.6%.
That's not a talent gap. It's a capacity gap. Our scouts have always focused on FBS prospects, and FCS, D-II, NAIA and D-III kids rarely get their film watched.
Rivals Recruits puts the same scouts, held to the same standards, on more of that film.
You can pay for an evaluation. You can't pay for the result.
Great resource and link for all college coaches and scouts. More opportunities for athletes.
on3.com/rivals/rankings/rada…
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What to Watch: Florida OFF vs Ole Miss
▫️Sacks & Scrambles key to OM pass defense
▫️Can UF run game get OM into vulnerable heavy boxes?
▫️Who wins the easy screen pass game?
▫️OM vulnerable to QB run game; better vs Gap blocking
📊FBS Playcalling Sheets
weeks 1-3:
Florida
▫️Top 5 offense
▫️Run & pass games are rolling; few sacks
▫️Deep tgts worth almost 1 pt per attempt
▫️Punishing the blitz
▫️Baugh & OL finding success w/ variety of rush concepts
Comment & RT teams you'd like to see
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What to Watch: Florida DEF vs Ole Miss
▫️Toughest matchup so far for UF
▫️Expect OM to throw at a high clip
▫️OM done well passing against UF base scheme, namely MOFC, Zone, No Blitz
▫️Gators need to minimize impact of designed QB runs
Ole Miss
▫️Leaning on pass game; taking few sacks
▫️Even split of 11/12
▫️WR tgts strong; RB tgts poor
▫️Better vs Zone & MOFC (White staples)
▫️Worse vs Blitz
▫️Will involve QB in run game; successfully
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📊FBS Playcalling Sheets
weeks 1-3:
Florida
▫️Top 5 offense
▫️Run & pass games are rolling; few sacks
▫️Deep tgts worth almost 1 pt per attempt
▫️Punishing the blitz
▫️Baugh & OL finding success w/ variety of rush concepts
Comment & RT teams you'd like to see
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📊Notable NFL Playcalling Tendencies (wks 1-2)
▫️49ers: Motion & 21
▫️Chiefs: RPOs & RB tgts
▫️Jags: 12 & Deep Tgts
▫️Texans: 11 & Gap rushing
Let me know who else you want to see in the comments
Data: @football_sis
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I have a theory that Buster Faulkner is so good because as a true freshman he was the scout team QB going up against Muschamp and Smart every single week
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The refs were awful for UF vs Auburn...
But I'm begging Gator fans to stop posting clips of rip moves they want called for holding
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Great win vs Auburn. Underrated aspect I haven't seen much chatter about is how tough Philo was. Dude took some shots but hung in back there making plays
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📊Opp-Adj EPA/Play - Wk 3
▫️Oxford crowd was huge
▫️Kamario Taylor is legit, but Fluff Bothwell is the name you should know
▫️Kentucky pushing TAMU to Clemson's tier (derogatory)
▫️Wolfie is not fine honey
▫️The Texas vs UTSA data is wonky (but 2 TODs & 3 punts ain't great)
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You should absolutely overreact to Week 3 data.
Method below:
📊How I Perform Opponent Adjustments
▫️Treat each play as a unique matchup
▫️Use Ridge Regression to solve play's resulting EPA given the Offense, Defense, & league-wide homefield advantage
▫️FBS vs FBS games only
▫️Method & code below:
blog.collegefootballdata.com…
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Last time Sumrall squared off against them it didn't go so well for Golesh, Gordon, or Byrum Brown.
Curious to see how it goes in this next bout
piped.video/watch?v=f4GTpkBX…
UF & AU HCs/Coordinators have matched up 4 times:
▫️'15 MTSU 25 (Faulkner), ILL 27 (Banks)
▫️'21 UK 42 (Sumrall/White), Tenn 45 (Golesh)
▫️'22 UK 6 (White), Tenn 44 (Golesh)
▫️'24 Tulane (Sumrall) 45, USF 10 (Golesh/Gordon)
AU Staff is 3-1 w/ a +6 overall MOV
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