In 2028, the median person on Earth will live on more than $10 a day for the first time in history (figures adjusted for inflation and for differences in purchasing power across countries). In the last decade alone, the share of people above this threshold has risen from 41.3% in 2016 (3.11 billion) to 48.7% in 2026 (4.03 billion). Think about that for a second: we have pushed nearly 900 million people over this threshold in ten years, around 90 million people a year (slightly above the population of Turkey). At the very bottom, we have also seen progress, though slower. In 2016, 12.6% of the world lived below $3 a day (947 million people). In 2026, the figure fell to 10.0% (826 million). This fall is harder to achieve because the poorest countries also have fast population growth. As fertility falls there, and I think it is already falling, we will cut poverty much faster. You are probably thinking that $10 a day is not a demanding threshold. True. But in 1990, yesterday in historical terms, only 1.42 billion people lived above it. And this is not just China: 2.6 billion people have crossed the $10 line. On the other hand, in 1990, 2.20 billion people lived below $3 a day. I checked these figures today because I start teaching Global Economic History at Penn this Wednesday, and I wanted to update the numbers I use. As Joel Mokyr instructs us: “The responsibility of economic historians is to remind the world what things were like before 1800. Growth was imperceptibly slow, and the vast bulk of the population was so poor that a harvest failure would kill millions. Almost half the babies born died before reaching age 5, and those who made it to adulthood were often stunted, ill and illiterate.” (“What Today's Economic Gloomsayers Are Missing,” 2014.) This will be my first lesson to the students on Wednesday: we live in times of historically unprecedented prosperity, and, by and large, things are getting much better every year.

Aug 23, 2026 · 10:23 AM UTC

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Some years ago we at EAGLEs Project at @BBVAResearch we worked intensively on the Wealth and Population revolution .. somehow related to your graph @JesusFerna7026 … Emerging Middle Classes are also changing fast and becoming richer and richer (particularly in Asia) this is a revolution and will change the distribution of wealth (this was a forecast in 2016 but today also a fact)… also explaining the gravity movement of income and wealth to Asia Pacific
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Yes, I should write something about that.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Thanks @JesusFerna7026 Despite this is a known fact ..not a forecast.. "media" will continue to think and spread the apocaliptic idea that we are living the worst moment of history ....
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Bad news sells.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Super intereresting as usual. One thought/question: part of this progress may also be demographic. The share above $10 can rise because incomes increase, but also because population weights change. Historically, faster population growth in poorer countries has worked against the rise in global median income. As fertility falls in those countries, that demographic headwind should weaken. It would be interesting to know how much of the change since 1990 reflects rising incomes within countries versus this composition effect.
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Yes, I should compute that decomposition. Thanks!
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Is there any way we (me and perhaps many more international econ phd students) can access the course material (slides and/or a reading list)? I find the topic extremely interesting and I'd like to know more! Thanks!
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Surely something to celebrate although I have a lot of distrust for a PPP to be honest
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I am not a big fan of PPP to compare growth rates. For comparing levels, they are good enough.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Existe el mismo gráfico desagregado por continentes o páises?
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Buenas tardes, Jesús. Hace unos días recomendó una serie de papers que todo estudiante de economía debería leer. Me gustaría pedirle que recomendase tres libros de economía general para iniciarse en el tema y tres libros de historia económica. Muchas gracias.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
I feel this way too, as a historian of reproduction/medicine. It is remarkable to be living in a time of highly effective public health, impressively if not perfectly effective medicine, and very low infant and maternal mortality.
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Yes, indeed. In class, I make the point as follows. Henry Clay: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_… was the elite of the elite of the elite of his time, with access to the best medicine money could buy in the 19th century. He had 11 children, six daughters and five sons. He buried all his six daughters, one of his sons, and another was in an institution. So, only three out of 11 reach adulthood in a healthy way.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
I wonder what has been the evolution of middle class income and purchasing power over the last 40 years in the west. As a member of that cohort I feel that today is worst than 20 or 39 years ago.
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I love cars. I was recently at a historical car show. When I sat in a middle-class car from 39 years ago, I noticed it was a piece of crap with respect to today's standards. If you visited a supermarket from 39 years ago, you would be shocked by the lack of variety and how little fresh produce there was (unless you were lucky and lived in California or Florida). You would have a small TV, with an awful screen, no internet, no smartphones, and calling home to my dad (as I do every day) would be impossibly expensive. And all those appliances would be in a much smaller house with much lower construction standards. And if you are into books, way less selection and at a much higher price. Do you know how expensive it was to get a book in English in Paris, Rome, or Berlin 39 years ago? Or to get a book in Spanish in New York City until around 20 years ago?
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
How much of the recent improvement in per capita income percentiles is due to crashing fertility?
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Not that much. Most of it is the enormous economic growth in Asia.
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Marx wrote that the transition from feudalism to capitalism would have this kind of effect. Is that what’s happening? Is most of this change coming from “undeveloped” countries? From immigration?
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Marx thought that the growth of capitalism would lead to mass immiseration, not mass enrichement: sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/ET_3_…
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
But isn’t it true you have more basic necessities for a normal life now? Eg you’ve adjusted dollars for inflation but does that cover it?
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Yes, our expectations change, but not having enough food to eat is not the same as not having your own car.
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Replying to @JesusFerna7026
Why does it matter that a person lives on $10 a day? $10 in relation to what? What is the cost of living? What is the quality of product? the person’s socioeconomic status? A number doesn’t tell me anything. A haircut in Syria costs much less than a haircut in the US. Same value
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Units here are 2021 international dollars. A 2021 international dollar is a synthetic unit of account with the same purchasing power over the relevant expenditure aggregate as the US dollar had in the United States in 2021. That is, if a haircut in Syria costs less than in the U.S., that is taken into account (as well as differences in quality). So, think about what you could buy with $10 in a median U.S. town (not Manhattan, not San Francisco, but Springfield, average Midwest State), and that is the threshold of daily income. It is not very high, but that is the point: for 99.99% of human history, the immense majority of humans have been incredibly poor.
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