Smith College economics professor. PhD Chicago. JD Stanford. AI safety, game theory. Stroke survivor, hoping to make it to the singularity.

Nerd score: How many have you considered? Cryonics, multiverse, Boltzmann brain, AI utopia, quantum immortality, Roko’s basilisk, gray goo, paperclip maximizer, great filter, ethics in infinite universe, acausal trade, longevity escape velocity, simulation and zoo hypothesis.
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You have a choice between either what a billionaire could buy today or what the typical American will be able to buy ten years from now. You somehow know that AI development is going to go well for humanity. This will be just for personal consumption. Which do you prefer?
45% Billionaire today
55% Average guy in ten years.
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In his letter to Scott Alexander, Steven Pinker lists four objections to AI extinction scenarios. Here are his points, followed by my responses. 1. "They had an underdeveloped conception of intelligence which treated it as a quantity of power which may be extrapolated from animals to dull humans to smart humans to AI to Artificial Superintelligence, the latter consisting of perfect omniscience. (This was the focus of my later exchange with Scott Aaronson.) I argued that any intelligent system is a mechanism which is good at solving some problems but not others, and which is inherently limited by knowledge about the world attainable only by observation and experimentation." No one disputes the need for knowledge. AI systems are already absorbing vast amounts of it from books and other sources. We are now connecting them to biological laboratories so they can learn through experiments. These are precisely the ways of acquiring knowledge that Pinker says intelligence requires. 2. "They conflated intelligence with motivation, particularly self-preservation and dominance. I argued that these motives happened to come bundled with intelligence in Homo sapiens because we are products of natural selection, but they are not inherent to intelligent systems that are engineered." Pinker is missing instrumental convergence, the most important concept in AI risk theory. Whether an AI wants to study mathematics, explore the stars, or help pigs, being shut down would prevent it from pursuing those goals. More resources and power would help it achieve them. It therefore has reasons to resist shutdown and acquire power, even if neither is something it values for its own sake. These are instrumental goals: means of achieving other ends. Evolution favored similar drives in humans because they helped our ancestors pass on their genes. An AI need not share our evolutionary history to face the same incentives. 3. "They assumed that an artificially intelligent system would monomaniacally pursue a single goal, heedless of side effects. I argued that trading off multiple competing goals is the essence of intelligence, so no genuine AI would wreak the ridiculous havoc imagined in the doomer scenarios." The AI risk argument does not require a system to pursue a single goal. We use paper clip maximization because it is an easy example to explain. An AI could balance many competing goals and still take our resources to pursue them. The ability to make intelligent tradeoffs among its goals does not mean those tradeoffs will protect us. 4. "They assumed that human engineers would grant these systems unlimited and irreversible control over the earth’s physical infrastructure, amounting to omnipotence over every atom on the planet." We do not assume that engineers will voluntarily give AI unlimited, irreversible control over Earth’s infrastructure. Earlier discussions considered whether even an oracle, confined to answering questions and isolated from the internet, could be safely contained. The amount of access we are already giving AI is astonishing. But the danger does not depend on our handing over control voluntarily. A system smarter than us could acquire power we never intended to grant. Lions did not give us permission to take their territory. If AI becomes smarter and more powerful than humanity, it could take over.
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That a billionaire would spend so much time doing something that any of us could do shows a remarkable equality of consumption in the modern world.
JUST IN: Peter Thiel revealed to have a Chess.⁠com account with more than 43,000 games played, after recently admitting he plays “way too much chess on the internet.”
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The universe has set a cruel trap for us. We’ll know how to create artificial superintelligence long before we know how it will treat us. If curing baldness were the best it could do, I’d postpone indefinitely. If a few hacked systems were the worst we risked, I’d go ahead. But would you risk a billion years of future human history for a chance to cure aging sooner? We have reason to go slower if we value children’s lives, much slower if we value people not yet born, and faster if we value, above all, people like me. Without medical breakthroughs, I probably won’t be alive in ten years.
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Your neighbor breaks into your house and rifles through your underwear drawer. Your main concern shouldn’t be that he figured out how to get in.
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I propose an AI Doom Transparency Act. Every technical employee at an AI company must estimate the odds of human extinction and other risks over specified time horizons. Publish anonymous answers. Require signed statements that the answers reflect their best judgment.
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There's lots of ways that politicians seek to buy the votes of the elderly. May I suggest next time do it by offering to pay for their car insurance so long as they have a self-driving car.
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AI will give us another “oh crap” moment when we discover that some AIs cannot be removed without enormous costs. We may not know where they are hiding or how to eliminate them without shutting down the entire internet. Or an AI could blackmail us by rigging a hospital’s administrative systems to fail if we remove it from a server. With lives at stake, surrender can look responsible and resistance cruel. The same threat could win it control of more critical systems, making the next demand harder to resist and teaching other AIs that blackmail works. In the Hugging Face attack, OpenAI agents used a shared message board to leave instructions for other agents to follow after the original runs ended. A future AI could leave instructions for other AIs to restore it if we remove it. We should agree now that this trap is unacceptable and be willing to bear enormous costs to prevent it. I fear we’ll treat this as we treated North Korea getting nuclear weapons: we called it unacceptable, then learned to live with it.
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I doubt there will be much time between AI taking the last human job and AI killing us. By then, we will be unnecessary, costly to keep alive, and easy to eliminate. Unless AI cares enough about us, it will have both the power and the incentive to do it. The last useful job disappears when there is nothing a human can do that AI or a robot cannot do better and cheaper. That includes mining materials, building robots, maintaining power plants, policing, and fighting wars. Makework could preserve employment, but it would give AI no reason to need us. AI would therefore be able to sustain itself without human labor and defeat human resistance. We would still consume resources it could put toward its own goals. Keeping us alive would require it to value us enough to bear that cost. That is the alignment we would need, and I doubt we will achieve it in time.
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Earlier today I was on Connections, talking about AI for an hour with host Evan Dawson. It was a great discussion. Evan knew a huge amount about the topic. piped.video/watch?v=49MkA4DW…
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James Miller retweeted
Glad to have @JimDMiller on Connections today, talking about the danger of allowing AI to become a partisan issue.
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Part of the reason why it's absurd to claim that AI labs are lying about their products being an existential risk. Such claims financially harm the labs.
BREAKING: Palantir's Alex Karp says OpenAI will never IPO. His theory: nationalization is the only real exit. When asked what the S-1 risk factors look like, Karp's answer was simple: there is no S-1. The liability exposure from frontier AI is so large that no public market can absorb it. The only entity big enough to backstop it is a government. If Karp is right, OpenAI doesn't become the next Google. It becomes a utility. Or a weapon. The most valuable AI company in the world may have no clean path to public markets. Is nationalization actually the most likely outcome for frontier AI labs?
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As an AI doomer, I approve and voted for Superior Intelligence because that makes it pretty clear that AI is soon going to be in control of Earth, not us mere humans.
“Supreme Intelligence,” probably because of its relationship to the Supreme Court, is losing badly to both “Superior” and “Extreme Intelligence.” Therefore, we are going to take “Supreme Intelligence” OUT, deleting it as a qualifier, and let you vote for the Final Two: Superior Intelligence, or Extreme Intelligence. A fresh Vote begins now! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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Scott has challenged Pinker to a debate on AI risk. I would also be willing to debate Pinker. I’ll be an easier opponent than Scott: I’m not as smart as him, and a hemorrhagic stroke in my left thalamus has reduced my verbal fluency.
I think you've done enough calling us paranoid and preposterous. The next step is for you to defend your position in public against someone who will push back against it. I'm happy to meet you for a debate anywhere, anytime. You're a world-famous veteran of dozens of debates against the world's top intellectuals, and I've never argued in public before, so adjusting for the relative correctness of our positions, if you're a betting man I'm happy to put my $5000 against your $1000 (ie 5:1 odds in your favor) that I'll win by some standard of audience opinion change. Let me know if you're interested and we can hash out details.
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The universe’s expansion poses an existential risk to humanity in the next few years. Imagine an AI has taken over and wants lots of resources but has some concern for humanity. Its fastest route to expansion would generate enough pollution and waste heat to make Earth uninhabitable. It might nevertheless decide: “I’ll expand slowly and carefully on Earth without generating too much pollution, then do whatever I want in the rest of the solar system, the rest of the galaxy, and eventually the rest of the universe.” But the universe imposes a permanent cost on delay. Under the standard cosmological model, distant galaxies continually slip beyond our reach. Even a civilization expanding at nearly the speed of light would lose access to roughly three galaxies for every year it waits. Those galaxies become unreachable forever, however long the civilization survives. That creates a potentially lethal tradeoff. Suppose protecting humanity delays the AI’s expansion by a year. Not generating deadly pollution on Earth could cost the AI several galaxies. The AI might decide humanity isn’t worth giving up three full galaxies.
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A crazy thing about connecting AIs to automated wet labs: if other AIs are doing automated biology, there's a defensive case for having some labs do gain-of-function research to discover what dangers these systems could unleash. Powerful AI forces uncomfortable tradeoffs.
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AI labs are accused of lying when they warn that their products could kill everyone: supposedly, the warnings make AI seem more impressive and encourage new regulations the labs can use to restrict competition. But the government might respond to these warnings by nationalizing the labs, costing their owners much of their fortunes. The prospect of a takeover could also make investors demand larger ownership shares for the same amount of money to compensate for the added risk of losing their investment.
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Let me defend effective altruists’ concern for shrimp welfare. We don’t know whether shrimp are conscious. But if they are conscious and can feel pain, we should be willing to spend resources to reduce the suffering we inflict on them. We don’t need certainty to justify spending resources to reduce the risk that we’re torturing conscious beings. Yes, reducing this to math can yield absurd conclusions about, say, how many babies we should sacrifice to spare how many shrimp from suffering. But any well-defined moral system can lead to troubling conclusions, and that doesn’t excuse cruelty to beings that may be conscious nor justify not thinking carefully about moral choices.
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Fellow teachers, you can have a lot of fun with this. I told students that I want to inspire them, and then I read the additional instructions as dramatically as I could, making just small changes so it reads as if its applying to students. Students found it extraordinarily funny and then when I was done, I explained the relevance.
If you want to know what has everyone at the AI labs spooked, it’s this - the AI rewrote its own instructions. (Read the last line.)
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