#MacroMarket Macro and Technical Strategist Was Forward Funds ($5.5 billion) Chief Tactical Strategist MacroTides.com jimwelshmacro@gmail.com
San Elijo, CA
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Broad market has been under severe pressure as noted by the RSI on the A-D Line (prior post)
Oil down, yields down should help broad market rally from Oversold condition
Watch RSP and MDY & market breadth
As long as S&P doesn't close beloew 7650, rally to near 8000 is possible
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Tonight Show Johnny Carson
Carson says "The RSI on the Advance-Decline Line is oversold"
Ed McMahon "How oversold is it?"
Carson "More oversold than when the S&P fell -21.1% in April 2025"
S&P just -1.3% from ATH
A lot of weakness under the surface
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Jim Welsh retweeted
Bessent buying $6B of Treasuries to bring down the yield curve
Nick Young
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9-22 WTR
Dollar’s RSI generated a Positive Divergence on September 8
Dollar strength in the face of two central banks increasing their policy rate underscores the RSI analysis
September 16, Dollar closed convincingly above 99.73
Follow through to 101. 50 – 101.80
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9-21 WTR
10-year is expected to trade modestly above 5.016% for Wave 5, which could be triggered if WTI rallies
If this develops, the 10-year yield will likely record a Positive RSI Divergence
This could set up a nice decline in Treasury yields
Drop to 4.75%
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9-22 WTR
The 38.2% retracement rally from 69.74 to 105.67 is 91.94
GDX fell to 91.19 on September 16 and found support on the blue trend line, which connects the lows in October 2025 and March 2026
Buy a 25% position GDX 15 minutes after the open on September 22, stop 92.70
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9-21 WTR
Breakout in the Mag 7 could lift it to 80 – 82, up another 10%
Buy a 50% position < 73.00 and another 50% below 71.50, using a close below 70.43 as a stop
Given the Mag 7’s weight of 33.5%, the S&P 500 could get a boost of 3% from this sector alone
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This shows how wide spread the lack of diversity is at institutions that preach the need for diversity
The lack of self awareness is impressive
Have seen data by Discipline at Top US News colleges
Where did bias in media come from?
Journalism has 90% Dems
Math Physics <6%
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Expiration is holding the market up
And Semiconductors +.89%
Market breadth
Advances 664
Declines 1965
S&P Equal Weight -.46%
Russell 2000 -.75%
Midcap -.60%
Breakdown coming next week
Unless S&P trades above 7757
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Monday Blake and I discussed FOMC
Expected
Months ago 10 yr to hit 5%
Rate hike and why
Less Hawkish Dot Plot
Now
Dot Plot more Hawkish 16 favor another hike
Treasury yields set to drop?
Dollar bullish
Gold weak
piped.video/watch?v=hMW7zU_4…
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Any weather event that supports 'climate change' is given obsessive attention and always with the tag line that it's proof
When weather doesn't support the narrative, no coverage
Believers don't care
This video highlights this
The Free Press
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Really looking forward to joining NinjaTrader Live with Jim Cagnina and Craig Shapiro
5 am pst 😎
FOMC and Chairman Warsh provided us with a lot to talk about
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For months people on X have been spewing there was no way Warsh would hike since it would make Trump mad
Ignorant thesis
Now people are saying that Warsh caved to the odds of the hike jumping
Zero critical thinking
There are 12 voters not just Warsh
Vote to hike was unaminous
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Subtle or not so subtle
Post FOMC press conferences have been 45 minutes long
Today it ended after 30 minutes
Less Forward Guidance in action!
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FOMC hiked
BUT
Also projected another hike in 2026
More Hawkish than I thought likely
12 ready to hike 1 more, 4 favor 2 hikes
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Observation
So much pontificating on X
Markets don't care what we think the Fed should do
Reading the tea leaves on what the Fed will do matters
Been in hike camp since early Aug based on
1) Breakdown of June SEP
2) 2 yr vs Funds spread
3) Warsh's JH speech
See prior posts
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June SEP
Median Funds rate 3.8% - .17 above 3.63
Weighted Avg 4.33% - .70 above 3.63
Difference between 3.8% and 4.33% showed the intensity of those who wanted to hike
9 Wanted hikes, 9 didn't and won't agree to multiple hikes
Weighted Avg for Sept SEP will help
Will post it
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Expected 5% for months Now FWIW?
9-14 WTR
The 10-year’s RSI is above 70 and overbought noted by the blue arrows
Each time the RSI has become overbought, the 10-year yield declined modestly
The 10-year is likely to fall to 4.75%, with a small chance it could drop to 4.60% – 4.63%
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Stormy Daniels go $140,000 for getting screwed
President Trump is offering us $5,000
The cost of getting screwed has plummeted 😠
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