🚨 Is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to address a situation it fundamentally cannot control? The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this week; Warsh explicitly pointed out that excessive inflation is primarily driven by rising oil and energy prices. Yet, JPMorgan has admitted something telling. The world’s largest bank by market capitalization stated it can no longer predict the future trajectory of oil prices, writing: "We simply do not know how to model the ultimate outcome of a war with Iran." It is precisely these oil prices that are driving up inflation—the very situation the Fed is attempting to address with this rate hike. The problem is that raising interest rates is a demand-side tool. Its function is to increase borrowing costs, thereby curbing spending by individuals and businesses. It is ineffective against supply shocks—such as a war disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil prices are currently unpredictable—even for a bank like JPMorgan that makes its living tracking them—then the inflation data the Fed is trying to manage is equally unpredictable. Oil prices could remain above $100, or they could plummet by 20% to 25% within hours of the conflict ending. Regardless, the Fed has locked in this rate hike and, according to its own projections, may raise rates again before the end of the year. Yet, no one can accurately predict where oil prices will go. If prices fall following a de-escalation of the conflict, the Fed’s move will have saddled households and businesses with higher borrowing costs—costs that bear no relation to the actual problem the Fed originally set out to solve.