Prof @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Fellow @BrookingsInst | Intro Econ textbook author | newsletter.platypuseconomics… | linktr.ee/justinwolfers
Ann Arbor, MI
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Announcing: @PlatypusEcon — a Substack, YouTube channel, and podcast built around one idea: Economics is one of the most useful, surprising, and weirdly beautiful subjects in the world.
It belongs to everyone — not just the people who happened to take it in college. 🧵
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Public choice economics assumes that we're self-interested. That means our job as voters is to design ways to keep politicians accountable. We're their boss piped.video/PXf0iEBhUaw
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Bold strategy to sanction ourselves before anyone else gets a chance. Trump's diesel export ban needs some reworking. platypuseconomics.substack.c…
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A quick refresher on correlation vs. causation (something some people clearly need a refresher on right now) piped.video/PXf0iEBhUaw
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Turns out “support local journalism” can also mean “maybe don’t jack up our municipal bond yields.” That's what authors found in a 2020 Journal of Financial Economics study of U.S. newspaper closures. We need the press. piped.video/PXf0iEBhUaw
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How much should we spend to make AI safer? Chad Jones runs the same math we use for airbags: value a life at $10M, take even a small catastrophic risk seriously, and the number gets big fast.
His answer: at least 1% of GDP a year on AI safety newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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Justin Wolfers retweeted
A ban on exporting ribeye makes it less profitable to raise cattle, reducing the supply of both ribeye and brisket. Brisket prices rise.
Fuel is also jointly produced: Diesel is ribeye, gas is brisket, and now you can predict where gas prices might go.
piped.video/UwsPWUbGUVs
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Here's how Trump's proposed diesel export ban could backfire.
The ban forces international diesel demand to 0, and refiners run less crude. That crude is also used to make gasoline.
Even Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted this could push gas prices up. piped.video/UwsPWUbGUVs
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A federal judge just ordered CNN, MS NOW and Politico back into the White House. But the war on the press is far from over. Peru is a good case study. newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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With nuclear weapons, you can count the warheads. With AI, there's nothing to count.
We built an entire architecture of treaties and inspectors to govern uranium, and are struggling to figure out a way to do the same with AI newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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Chad Jones has a useful way to think about AI safety:
If AI poses a 1% chance of catastrophe, and we value a statistical life at ~$10M, reducing that risk by 1 percentage point is worth about $100,000 per person.
That’s the economic case for taking AI safety spending seriously. newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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When no one's writing it down, there's less incentive to show up. That's the simple case why the press is good newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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When the Cincinnati Post shut down, it oddly had an effect on local elections. Fewer people ran for office, voter turnout fell, and incumbents became more likely to win. That's useful context for Trump's decision to ban 3 news orgs from the White House newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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Freedom of Press matters more than for you to stay informed. It keeps people politically engaged. It makes borrowing cheaper. And most importantly, it keeps those in power accountable for their actions. piped.video/ptg95bB56vM
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Lotta talk this week about press freedom. So let's dig into economics research on how press restrictions shape society, democracy, and yes, our economy.
(Spoiler: Trump's not the first to play this game. Restricting the press can help politicians, but always hurts voters.)
piped.video/watch?v=ptg95bB5…
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Justin Wolfers retweeted
Justin Wolfers: "It's not a trade war. It's a question of sovereignty. It's a question of dignity. It's closer to a cold war for the Canadians than it is to a trade war. I think the president has simply destroyed generations of goodwill."
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The best policies don’t always force us to choose between equity and efficiency.
Take the Earned Income Tax Credit. It boosts incomes for low-wage workers while also rewarding work.
We're trying to redistribute income without weakening the incentive to earn it. newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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The latest version counts phone and internet, but that wouldn't even make sense to economists in 1963. The bigger question is who makes the call about what counts and what doesn't? newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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Put a bunch of economists in a room and they can argue about anything, but in the '90s they all agreed to update the poverty measure to include more than just the grocery bill. newsletter.platypuseconomics…
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