1/6 πΊπ¦ The Draft State Budget 2027 is built around the assumption that the full-scale war will continue throughout next year. The deficit is expected at UAH 1.67tn, while Ministry of Defence spending is set to rise to UAH 3.76tn. New KSE Institute analysis: e.surl.li/loeged
Sep 23, 2026 Β· 7:10 AM UTC
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2/6 π The Government expects 1.3% real GDP growth, 8.6% average inflation, and an average exchange rate of UAH 47.1/$. The entire framework remains highly dependent on the timely receipt of $91.6bn in external financing.
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3/6 π‘ Defence and security remain the main priority. Ministry of Defence spending is planned at UAH 3.76tn, up 9.2% from the amended 2026 plan. The increase is supported in part by the second β¬45bn tranche of the Ukraine Support Loan (USL).
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4/6 π° State budget revenues are projected at UAH 5.65tn, including UAH 2.86tn in tax revenues and UAH 2.49tn in international assistance. At the same time, part of the revenue plan still depends on tax-law changes and stronger customs collections.
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5/6 π The deficit is expected to reach 15% of GDP. State and state-guaranteed debt could rise to 113.9% of GDP by end-2027. Of $38.7bn in planned external loans, $32.6bn currently has no confirmed financing sources or corresponding partner commitments.
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