Excluding the 2021 bubble playoffs, road teams are 299-314 with a +6.9% ROI in the NHL Playoffs dating back to the 2015-16 postseason.
Over the last two NHL Playoffs, road teams are 93-82 with a +11.9 ROI%.
Considering that the higher seeds play more home games, home teams being only 15 games above .500 over a 613 game suggests home ice advantage is minimal at best.
Year by year breakdown (per ActionBetLabs):
2023-24 road teams 46-41, +7.9% ROI
2022-24 road teams 47-41, +15.8% ROI
2021-22 (*still semi Covid) road teams 35-54 -17% ROI
2018-19 road teams 42-45, +11.7% ROI
2017-18 road teams 44-40, +20.1% ROI
2016-17 road teams 40-47, +3% ROI
2015-16 road teams 45-46, +7.9% ROI
I'm not saying that just betting every road team is a sound strategy or that these trends will continue by rule, but it's probably not overly smart to cook much home ice advantage into your prices come the
@NHL playoffs.
@ToddFuhrman