🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers. Therefore, stats are losers
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Free Thursday Night Packers-Falcons Advanced Review @Unexpected_Pts
unexpectedpoints.com/p/week-…
2
2,168
Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) through Week 2 @Unexpected_Pts
- Brock Purdy jumped to the top
- Drew Lock nailed his Sam Darnold impersonation
- Josh Allen has efficiency and volume
- Baker Mayfield suffered bad luck with protection and fumbles
13
31
203
197,030
Quarterback efficiency (EPA/play) through Week 2, min 20 dropbacks
1) Jaxson Dart +0.62
2) Brock Purdy +0.53
3) Josh Allen +0.47
4) Drew Lock +0.46
5) Dak Prescott +0.44
6) Jared Goff +0.31
7) Caleb Williams +0.31
8) Bryce Young +0.31
9) Trevor Lawrence +0.23
10) Carson Wentz +0.21
11) Lamar Jackson +0.20
12) Jalen Hurts +0.19
13) Geno Smith +0.18
14) Patrick Mahomes +0.15
15) Deshaun Watson +0.14
16) Tyler Shough +0.14
17) Matthew Stafford +0.14
18) Jayden Daniels +0.12
19) Kirk Cousins +0.10
20) Drake Maye +0.10
21) Jacoby Brissett +0.06
22) Malik Willis +0.02
23) Daniel Jones +0.01
24) Joe Burrow +0.01
25) C.J. Stroud 0.00
26) Cam Ward -0.04
27) Jordan Love -0.06
28) Bo Nix -0.06
29) Justin Herbert -0.08
30) Baker Mayfield -0.20
31) Aaron Rodgers -0.27
32) Jameis Winston -0.45
33) Cooper Rush -0.69
3
9
43
15,296
Team offensive efficiency (EPA/play) through Week 2, previous season ranking in parentheses
1) BUF +0.37 (3)
2) SF +0.27 (6)
3) DAL +0.25 (5)
4) KC +0.16 (11)
5) BAL +0.16 (13)
6) JAX +0.12 (15)
7) CHI +0.12 (8)
8) DET +0.11 (9)
9) SEA +0.10 (12)
10) CAR +0.08 (26)
11) NO +0.07 (27)
12) WAS +0.04 (16)
13) PHI +0.04 (17)
14) NYG +0.01 (10)
15) IND +0.01 (7)
16) NYJ +0.01 (29)
17) MIN +0.01 (28)
18) LA 0.00 (2)
19) ARI -0.03 (23)
20) TEN -0.05 (30)
21) CIN -0.05 (19)
22) LV -0.06 (32)
23) NE -0.07 (1)
24) HOU -0.08 (22)
25) CLE -0.09 (31)
26) DEN -0.10 (14)
27) MIA -0.12 (25)
28) TB -0.14 (20)
29) GB -0.16 (4)
30) LAC -0.24 (24)
31) PIT -0.29 (18)
32) ATL -0.43 (21)
1
7
2,540
Team defensive efficiency (opponent EPA/play) through Week 2, previous season ranking in parentheses
1) LV -0.28 (20)
2) PIT -0.21 (19)
3) NE -0.17 (11)
4) CIN -0.17 (29)
5) SEA -0.17 (1)
6) MIN -0.16 (4)
7) NYJ -0.14 (30)
8) SF -0.12 (24)
9) ATL -0.11 (14)
10) LA -0.08 (7)
11) KC -0.05 (13)
12) CAR -0.04 (23)
13) JAX -0.03 (5)
14) BAL -0.03 (18)
15) GB -0.02 (22)
16) ARI +0.01 (26)
17) TB +0.01 (16)
18) NO +0.03 (10)
19) LAC +0.03 (6)
20) CLE +0.03 (3)
21) DEN +0.04 (8)
22) CHI +0.04 (21)
23) PHI +0.05 (9)
24) TEN +0.08 (28)
25) HOU +0.08 (2)
26) WAS +0.13 (31)
27) MIA +0.15 (25)
28) BUF +0.17 (12)
29) DAL +0.19 (32)
30) IND +0.2 (17)
31) DET +0.2 (15)
32) NYG +0.26 (27)
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8,349
Kevin Cole retweeted
Quarterback efficiency (EPA/play) through Week 2 SNF, min 30 dropbacks
*Playing MNF
1) Jaxson Dart +0.73*
2) Brock Purdy +0.53 📈
3) Josh Allen +0.47
4) Drew Lock +0.46 📈
5) Dak Prescott +0.44 📈
6) Jared Goff +0.31
7) Caleb Williams +0.31
8) Bryce Young +0.31
9) Trevor Lawrence +0.23 📉
10) Carson Wentz +0.21
11) Lamar Jackson +0.20 📉
12) Jalen Hurts +0.19
13) Geno Smith +0.18
14) Patrick Mahomes +0.15
15) Deshaun Watson +0.14 📈
16) Tyler Shough +0.14
17) Jayden Daniels +0.12
18) Kirk Cousins +0.10
19) Drake Maye +0.10
20) Jacoby Brissett +0.06 📉
21) Malik Willis +0.02
22) Daniel Jones +0.01
23) Joe Burrow +0.01
24) C.J. Stroud 0.00
25) Cam Ward -0.04
26) Jordan Love -0.06
27) Bo Nix -0.06
28) Justin Herbert -0.08
29) Baker Mayfield -0.20 📉
30) Aaron Rodgers -0.27 📉
31) Cooper Rush -0.69
7
9
89
16,852
Kevin Cole retweeted
The top-10 quarterbacks in total adjustment EPA
Full post: unexpectedpoints.com/p/adjus…
8
7
102
34,775
Adjusted quarterback efficiency through Week 1 @Unexpected_Pts
- Jaxson Dart suffers the biggest drop from pre-adjustment EPA per play, due to a number of factors detailed in the post (link below)
- Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers get the biggest boosts
- Trevor Lawrence leads in adjusted pre-play number, Caleb Williams in total adjusted EPA
10
22
230
52,217
The top-10 quarterbacks in total adjustment EPA
Full post: unexpectedpoints.com/p/adjus…
8
7
102
34,775
You can find all the numbers behind the rankings, links to proprietary stats and my commentary here
unexpectedpoints.com/p/week-…
5
2
10,305
Week 1 quarterback efficiency (EPA/play), updated through MNF, min 15 dropbacks
1) Jaxson Dart +0.73
2) Trevor Lawrence +0.72
3) Caleb Williams +0.55
4) Dak Prescott +0.42
5) Josh Allen +0.41
6) Carson Wentz +0.38
7) Lamar Jackson +0.36
8) Bryce Young +0.34
9) Drew Lock +0.30
10) Geno Smith +0.30
11) Jacoby Brissett +0.29
12) Brock Purdy +0.22
13) Jalen Hurts +0.14
14) Drake Maye +0.12
15) Jared Goff +0.12
16) Jayden Daniels +0.10
17) C.J. Stroud +0.07
18) Tyler Shough +0.04
19) Joe Burrow +0.03
20) Patrick Mahomes -0.01
21) Kirk Cousins -0.02
22) Deshaun Watson -0.08
23) Justin Herbert -0.09
24) Baker Mayfield -0.10
25) Malik Willis -0.11
26) Aaron Rodgers -0.12
27) Jordan Love -0.15
28) Cam Ward -0.15
29) Daniel Jones -0.25
30) Matthew Stafford -0.27
31) Bo Nix -0.44
32) Cooper Rush -0.64
6
7
100
18,947