$BTC closed below its 4yr SMA for the first time ever and monthly Trix 7 below zero bound for the 3rd time in it’s history In 10 yrs will you look back and regret buying too little or too much throughout it’s time below these markers?
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Day 890 of the current 2024 cycle. Best DCA window on the halving clock: days 893–982. That’s the 90-day box where adding in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all finished green 3 years later. “Worst cycle” means the weakest of those three still returned+433%. We enter that window in a few days. bitcoin:native #BTC
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Will this be the first cycle we don't tag RP? bitcoin:native
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low is in or not?
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I hope everyone has been DCAing into the best asset on earth with some just in case cash on the side cause nobody knows what this thing will do in the short term. That being said, here's where we stand for the bitcoin:native 4yr cycle and power law bros:
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A lot of doom posting
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Look, bitcoin is wild asset it doesn't give a shit about your stupid charts or what you think it's going to do in the future doesn't care who sells who buys who hodls, there's no BOD, CEO , owner . It only cares about time and it's marching forward:
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New block every ~10 minutes (~144/day) Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) Halving every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) Current reward: 3.125 BTC + fees Next halving: block 1,050,000 (~April 2028) → 1.5625 BTC ~450 new BTC minted per day (drops to ~225 after 2028) Last coins mined ~2140 6 confirmations ≈ 1 hour
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Is it just my timeline or is everyone else getting hit with the same dumbass post - should we thank them for giving us a warning or something - Not saying it can't happen this is Bitcoin anything can happen, I just wanna know whoTF is getting shaken out reading this dribble
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We’ll probably get 3-6 incredible entries and the rest is DCA during cycle bottom zone currently 70days left - plenty of time for a generational entry in the best asset on earth I’ll post when to load up don’t regret not listening bitcoin:native
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1/ Everyone’s watching the 50-week. Bitcoin is 860 days after the Apr 2024 cut — day 10 of the 850–930 bottom window. 70 days left. −36% from the Oct 2025 ATH. Already ~20% off the lows into this box. The 50-week is a trend line. The window is the cycle. Most of the timeline is glued to the wrong one.
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4/ This cycle’s top box already did its job (Oct 2025, day 534). So the 4-year story is on the bottom box now. If the next 70 days tag a new low, the neighborhood still holds. If this window shuts and a new low prints after it, the 4-year calendar and the mystique that rides with it take a real hit. That’s the test. Not today’s 50-week candle.
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5/ Don’t get cute about the clock either. 70 days is a long time in Bitcoin. A flush can still show up in September or October and sit right in the same area Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 did. Watch the window. Have a plan regardless, ignore the rest of the theater until day 930. Neighborhood. Not the tick. DCA is still the best play but this might get interesting
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Bitcoin Update:
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#reality Mass is not a fundamental property of particles. It is derived from the single primitive object — the four-momentum P^μ. One object, two faces: the invariant m² and the operational μ. The mathematics of relativistic physics has never contained the intrinsic-mass reading — no construction of m² exists that does not reference P^μ. The theory has been relational since 1905. The ontology has not caught up.
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KnowOne retweeted
Hey everyone, Don't forget to take a moment to laugh at Elizabeth Warren.
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Reality is this will take some time to settle. Maybe 58k was the bottom, maybe not. By 11/1 we’ll know, and this time next year it’ll be obvious in hindsight. Feels like everyone turning on the Strategy, combined with all the capitulation, might be the exact signs we’ll look back on and say “that was it.” Last bull run to 126k happened in a pretty restrictive macro environment, which is why alts never really took off like a lot of us expected. If we keep seeing commodity prices and treasury yields trending lower, accommodative policy should follow. Even if full clarity doesn’t come through right away, it won’t matter—if the environment turns supportive for growth, alts will thrive. With that said, BTC will do its thing regardless of policy. I’m still targeting 500k by 2030, with a possible crash to 150k before the bigger run to 1 million by 2034.
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Warsh made it clear: the Fed wants to rely on more up-to-date, instant data for inflation instead of old legacy prints from a month or quarter ago. He also said markets will give the real guidance going forward — the Fed won’t be spoon-feeding it. To me, the best real-time inflation metric is commodities right now. The CRB index has dropped hard since the May peak, copper (used in everything) is cooling off, and the 10-year yield is falling right along with them. Bond traders are already adjusting to this live data. On top of that, Warsh believes AI will be hugely disinflationary via productivity gains. Who knows what this means for stocks and BTC short term, but long term this looks super bullish. Lower inflation pressures, cheaper borrowing costs, and a Fed shifting toward real-time signals? That’s a solid macro setup. Markets are pricing it in right now.
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