A possible framework is not yet a breakthrough. With oil prices reacting quickly to the latest US–Iran headlines, attention is once again turning to the Strait of Hormuz. But without clarity on implementation or the sequencing of concessions, how close are the two sides to meaningful progress? @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+, and Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC at Kpler, unpack the market reaction, the obstacles facing negotiators and the continued uncertainty surrounding regional oil flows. Watch the latest Kpler market update: okt.to/ZOtTVA

📈 Oil markets are back on edge. With Brent above $105 a barrel, geopolitical risk is once again driving the conversation. How much further could the risk premium climb? @Amena__Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & Opec+, and Matt Stanley, Head of Market Engagement, EMEA & APAC at Kpler, unpack the latest developments, from US–Iran diplomacy to the East-West Pipeline and continued risks across the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the latest Kpler market update: okt.to/zbHLw4

Coal markets head into a pivotal winter With winter approaching, the global coal market is facing a rapidly changing supply and demand picture. From shifting #fuel economics and tighter Chinese production to changing Russian export routes, several pressures are reshaping where coal is moving and who is buying it. Our latest Coal Monthly snapshot explores the key markets and trade flows to watch in the months ahead. Heading to Coaltrans Asia, 27th–30th September? Connect with the Kpler team to discuss the latest market developments and what our data is showing. Read the snapshot: okt.to/u9jITc

US diesel curbs risk global shock Restricting US #diesel exports could lower prices temporarily across parts of the domestic market, but the effects would extend well beyond American shores. Europe and Latin America would lose a major source of supply, intensifying competition for barrels from alternatives such as India and pushing international prices higher. Within the US, depleted East Coast inventories would still require logistical support, including continued Jones Act flexibility. A full ban could also weaken refinery margins and prompt run cuts. Any domestic price relief may therefore prove temporary, with prices potentially rising again once the US returns to the global market. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/X0wOpM

Arctic Cable Watch: Tracking risk beneath the surface Kpler’s Arctic Cable Watch analyses 60 days of vessel movement across the Svalbard cable corridor, combining #AIS, ownership and compliance data to separate routine maritime activity from behaviour that warrants closer attention. From AIS gaps and loitering to bottom-contact fishing, the briefing shows why context matters when monitoring critical subsea infrastructure. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/1nrObZ

Ras Tanura just recorded its busiest loading day since before the war. Following disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, 6 VLCCs loaded nearly 12 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Juaymah on 21 September — highlighting how quickly crude flows are adapting to pressure around Hormuz. But Kpler’s Risk & Compliance data reveals a deeper story. Some of the vessels had already recorded dark ship-to-ship transfers or port calls in the previous six weeks, suggesting the latest rerouting sits on top of a longer-running pattern of changing vessel behaviour. Kpler analysts Ana Subasic and Dimitris Ampatzidis examine the vessel movements, AIS activity and compliance signals behind the loading surge — and what they reveal about risk tolerance in an increasingly disrupted market. Disclaimer: At the time of publication, the data reflected the latest available information and is subject to change as new data becomes available. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/nmU1eV

Diplomacy, rising oil flows and the East-West pipeline are putting fresh pressure on oil prices. In this discussion, Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk, and Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research, unpack the latest signals around US-Iran diplomacy and shifting Mideast Gulf flows. With Saudi loadings increasing and the East-West pipeline gearing back up, they explore whether Iran’s leverage is shifting, what could bring both sides closer to the negotiating table, and what to watch next. Watch the full video: okt.to/wlHChM

🌎 Our LATAM Series kicks off soon. Global uncertainty is reshaping energy markets, and the effects are already reaching Latin America through changing import costs, rerouted cargoes and pressure on freight. Join Kpler experts Johannes Rauball, Ines Goncalves, David Tonyan and Matt Wright as they break down the latest developments across crude, refined products and freight, including supply and demand, trade flows, pricing, margins and the key risks shaping the region. 📅 September 24 ⏰ 10:00 COT | 11:00 EDT | 12:00 BRT | 16:00 BST Register now and get the Kpler data-driven view on what’s happening across LATAM and what to watch next. Reserve your spot: okt.to/uo4G16

Mark your calendars: Kpler Pulse Latam Series is back Starting 24 September, we're bringing together Kpler experts for five webinars exploring the forces shaping Latin America's commodity and maritime markets. 📍 24 Sep: Crude & Refined Products 📍 30 Sep: Dry Bulk 📍 7 Oct: Maritime 📍 15 Oct: Financial Flows 📍 21 Oct: Arbitrage First up: "Latam under pressure: Crude, fuel, and freight in a shifting world." Join us as we unpack how changing crude flows, fuel markets and freight dynamics are reshaping the region. 🕙 10:00 COT | 11:00 EDT | 12:00 BRT | 16:00 BST 👉 Reserve your spot: okt.to/PMKZNT

Oil markets are navigating a new wave of uncertainty. Are you prepared for what comes next? Join Kpler experts Homayoun Falakshahi, Andon Pavlov and Matt Stanley for Oil Insight: Navigating uncertainty, a focused briefing on the latest developments shaping crude and refined products markets. From Middle East disruption and US–Iran tensions to shifting supply, demand, flows, pricing and margins, our experts will unpack what’s happening now — and the key signals to watch next. Register now and join us live: okt.to/Jo6PnV

US copper imports stay elevated as record-value cargo heads for US shores The CME-LME arbitrage continues to pull copper cathode into the US, with imports running well above year-ago levels through 2026. After record arrivals in July and a softer but still elevated August, Kpler is tracking cargoes scheduled to discharge in September and October. The question now: can US copper imports hold this pace as tariff uncertainty persists? Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/T03xPF

Red Sea risks tighten gasoil The Red Sea escalation is moving from crude logistics into gasoil markets. European refinery runs could fall by around 200kbd, while Yanbu gasoil and diesel outflows are already nearly 50% lower year on year. Further aversion to the Bab El Mandeb Strait could delay Indian cargoes and tighten prompt supply in Europe and the Mediterranean. In Asia, concerns over crude feedstock availability could restrain refinery runs and reduce opportunistic diesel exports, including from China. With global refining capacity already a constraint, the latest disruption adds another layer of support to gasoil markets. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/9uRElA

Saudi disruption reshapes crude flows Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline disruption has removed a key bypass around Hormuz just as Yanbu inventories are running low. Stronger Dubai structure has reopened west-to-east arbs and intensified competition for Atlantic barrels. Europe remains tight as Forties moves east and Saudi availability falls, while WTI looks increasingly cheap abroad despite tightening US balances. Real-time tools to enable faster, better decisions: okt.to/ho0wab

Saudi oil exports pivot east Damage to Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline has shifted the #oil market’s focus from pipeline integrity to export logistics. Kpler’s base case assumes Petroline returns at around 50% of its pre-attack throughput after repairs of up to six weeks, potentially cutting Yanbu exports by 2.5 to 2.7 mbd. Saudi Arabia has sufficient tanker capacity to redirect roughly 3 mbd through Ras Tanura, requiring about 25 additional shuttle VLCCs per month. The bigger constraint is geopolitical. Greater reliance on Persian Gulf terminals means greater exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Dubai differentials supported even as the initial extremes ease. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/DxXWHq

Washington runs out of levers US refiners are already running near their limits, yet fuel prices and refining margins remain elevated. Now, Washington is pulling another lever: supply diplomacy. President Trump has urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian refineries as disruption to global fuel supply intensifies. But with refining capacity stretched and pressure at the pump persisting, the options are narrowing. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/ONwM6J

Six months of the Iran war — 45 seconds of market impact. From ceasefires and disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic to #tanker attacks and vessels going dark on AIS, the conflict has repeatedly reshaped energy markets and maritime flows. Watch the timeline to see how key events unfolded alongside Brent crude and gasoil prices. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: okt.to/eFvwyT

Heading to CT Asia 2026 in Bali? Join Kpler’s Firat Ergene, Lead Insight Analyst – Coal, Petcoke & Cement, as he takes the stage at CT Asia 2026 on 28 September. Firat will be discussing LNG markets, fuel switching and Asian energy security, looking at how changing fuel economics, shifting trade flows and evolving supply dynamics are influencing energy decisions across the region. With CT Asia co-located with the International Critical Minerals and Metals Summit for 2026, the event will bring together leaders from across coal, energy, mining and critical minerals to explore the forces shaping Asia’s energy and commodities landscape.

Toronto markets in focus Commodity markets continue to contend with changing supply dynamics, trade flows and demand signals. On 15 September, Kpler will bring market participants together at SixtyEight at Scotia Plaza in Toronto to examine the forces shaping oil, agriculture and dry bulk. Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners and Rory Johnston of Commodity Context will join Kpler’s Matt S. for a fireside discussion on the #oil market. Matt Darragh and Alexis Ellender will then share their outlooks for agricultural and dry bulk markets. The programme runs from 3:00pm to 6:30pm, followed by a networking reception. Limited seats remain. See you there. okt.to/Y9vkb5

We're bringing together decision-makers from across the commercial #shipping market for a briefing in Miami. The discussion will centre on: ◾ AIS spoofing and dark STS transfers — what defensible vetting looks like in practice ◾ The shadow fleet's role in ton-mile demand and rates ◾ Trade routes reshaping around emerging market disruptions Reserve your seat: okt.to/rq1gtM