Markets, Macro, Crypto & Quant | Helping you navigate markets with evidence, not hype | Building Helvetic Research | MSc Finance & Money
Zurich, Switzerland
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In markets, confident opinions are everywhere. Evidence is rare. I would rather show you the evidence than sell you the confidence.
If you want to understand markets instead of gambling on them, this account is for you.
I take the things people in finance repeat as fact and test them against real data.
Sometimes they hold up.
Sometimes they fall apart.
Either way, I’ll show you what happened, why I think it happened, and what the evidence still can’t tell us.
No signals. No price predictions. No “trust me.”
And you shouldn’t have to take my word for any of it. That’s the point.
I’m based in Zurich, obsessed with markets and how they actually work. I hold an MSc in Finance & Money, and that curiosity eventually led me to build Helvetic Research so I could test market ideas instead of just arguing about them.
Here you’ll find macro, markets, crypto and quant, tested in public.
I’ll be wrong sometimes. I’ll change my mind when the evidence changes.
I’m not trying to be the loudest person in markets.
I’m trying to build the account I would’ve wanted to follow: curious, evidence-led, and comfortable saying “I don’t know.”
If that sounds like how you want to think about markets too, follow along.
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Be honest: Have you ever bought a stock because it was trending on X, then convinced yourself you had a “thesis” afterward?
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10Y Treasury yield:
4.96% → 5.11% → 5.19%
Every morning it wakes up and chooses higher. At this point, the bond market is just doing cardio 😂
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Be honest: what's your split right now, crypto vs stocks?
mine is 65% crypto, 35% stocks. I believe we're near the end of the cycle, and that's when the riskiest assets tend to do best. NFA
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Serious question for anyone under 30: mortgage rates over 7%, the Fed hiking again, bond yields at nearly 20-year highs.
How fucked is our generation globally?
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$META moved before Zuckerberg even took the stage.
Shares jumped 11.4% two days before Meta Connect, gained another 1% before the keynote and rose 4.5% after it.
This does not mean somebody knew the announcement. The event was public. Investors were pricing early demand for Muse, analyst upgrades and the probability that Connect would validate Meta’s AI strategy.
It did: Meta brought Muse to its AI glasses, expanded its eyewear lineup and introduced new VR hardware.
The lesson: markets price expectations before announcements. Afterward, adoption and revenue must justify the move.
Is META building the next consumer AI platform, or has the stock moved too far too quickly?
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Most of the people are on TradingView's free plan, and it just got even more limited. Are you switching? If yes, to what?
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Bitcoin is flat. Altcoins like Solana are suddenly flying.
So I checked history. Since 2017, ETH or $SOL had a month like this (15%+ better than Bitcoin) 35 times.
What happened over the next 3 months?
Half kept winning. Half lost the lead.
Would you jump in now, or wait?
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How I tested it: every time $ETH or SOL beat Bitcoin by 15%+ in 30 days, I checked 90 days later.
Typical result: about 0%. Solana's 2020-21 run makes the average look great, but that's one outlier.
And these are the survivors. Most alts from past cycles are gone.
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Xi is in Washington this week and tariffs are on the table. Name one Chinese-made thing you'd keep buying even if tariffs doubled its price.
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Old-school macro 101 says:
Yields rising + oil climbing + a stronger dollar = pressure on risk assets (stocks & crypto).
But something looks fishy. Markets seem to barely care about the old-school macro factors. 🤨
So what changed: liquidity, earnings, AI concentration, or is the reaction just delayed?
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Gold is down more than 20% from its January high. Are you buying more, holding, or glad you never owned any?
I still think it’s in a multi-year trend. Personally, I’m buying this dip. NFA.
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Want to know what the Fed does next? Don't listen to the Fed. Watch the 2-year Treasury yield.
Since 1991 it has turned before the Fed in 9 of 10 rate cycles, usually 7 to 16 months early.
This year, the 2-year bottomed in February. The Fed hiked in September.
Today the 2-year is 4.85%. The Fed is at 3.875%. That gap is the market saying one hike isn't the end of it.
Be honest: did you see this hike coming?
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How I tested it: the 2-year yield (US Treasury) vs the Fed's target rate (official FOMC history), monthly, 1991 to today.
Correlation: 0.95. The 2-year's moves match the Fed's moves best about 3 months later.
Before the first cut: 2001 (8 months early), 2007 (15), 2019 (9), 2024 (11).
Before the first hike: 1994 (16), 1999 (8), 2004 (13), 2022 (13), 2026 (7). The exception was 2015, when rates had been stuck near zero for years.
The gap matters too. When the 2-year sat 0.5+ points above the Fed, the Fed hiked within a year 57% of the time. When it sat 0.5+ below, the Fed cut 87% of the time.
Why it works: the 2-year is basically the market's bet on the average Fed rate over the next two years. Traders price the Fed before the Fed moves.
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If a US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, does it change anything in your portfolio allocation ?
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