NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read
As Keir Starmer faced down the Iran crisis, in a pub just up the road Angela Rayner pitched to replace him. There’s a chasm in British politics between Labour mutineers, markets and a PM contending with Trump’s chaos.
— UK government borrowing costs reached their highest in 18 years on the war yet soft-left figures like Lisa Nandy called for looser fiscal rules. Political instability and a new left-wing leader would further test investor confidence. And demands for wide-ranging energy bills support are ultimately what sunk Liz Truss.
— Yet Rayner’s intervention shows the key question now is whether she and others move against Starmer in May. Her speech won support from soft-left backers. One said it cemented her as the front-runner, arguing it landed better with MPs than previous efforts by Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting to set out their own stalls.
— Labour MPs see two ways rebels could move in May: either a direct challenge led by Rayner, or a push to get a more left-wing cabinet, holding off efforts to replace Starmer until later. One advantage to the latter is Starmer would be the one who weathers the coming economic pain. The downside to waiting for Rayner is Burnham could make it to Westminster.
— It should be said there is a significant number of Labour MPs who do not want a left-wing takeover and think the left don’t have the numbers. A minister said it beggared belief that Rayner had made her first proper leadership pitch while Starmer deals with Iran.
— Another Labour official said she would have fared better by staying quiet during the crisis like Streeting. A backer of Shabana Mahmood’s policies criticised Rayner for publicly railing against them, predicting that if she became PM she would soon pivot to the right on migration or quickly further lose the support of voters.
— Others in Labour are pushing for a more pro-market agenda. Cabinet ministers are circulating a strategy document produced by core figures in
@LabourGrowth, which aims to give the leadership a new vision for the government’s purpose having concluded that major economic reforms have fallen by the wayside due to the lack of compelling political arguments.
— The project calls for a more “transformative agenda,” warning that “Britain as it is rewards grifters and punishes grafters.” It argues making the link between work and reward is vital if Labour is to win back voters on both its left and right flanks. The group is working with
@GoodGrowthFdn to develop a new policy platform and research to show it can rebuild a winning voter coalition.
— Policy proposals being examined include shifting the tax burden away from salaried work toward land and economic rent-seeking, merging employees’ NI with income tax, reforming council tax and creating new incentives for entrepreneurship and risk-taking. It also argues for a targeted deregulation push and an energy policy which refocuses the clean energy transition on driving down costs for households and industry, including moving levies off bills and a sprint for cheap electrification.
— Starmer’s allies agree Iran is a pivot point for his premiership. Some argue he could re-define his government by taking more of a stand against Trump, getting the country through the energy shock and restoring Britain’s place in the world by rapidly raising defence spending and moving much closer to the EU than currently expected. Nonetheless they know a hit to the economy and mortgages, even if Trump’s fault, rarely ends well for the government of the day.
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