Having read Amodeiâs actual proposal, I call bullshit.
His essay quietly concedes the fatal weaknesses:
Coordination among US labs covers only compliant, visible companies.
Capability-based checkpoints are subjective and gameable.
Compute limits miss distillation, fine-tuning, algorithmic improvements, model merging and tool use.
China cannot be trusted to disclose secret military models.
A defector could gain overwhelming strategic advantage.
His proposed worldwide pauseâLevel 4âis admitted to be unlikely.
Informal ânormsâ will not restrain actors chasing money, power, national advantage or intellectual curiosity.
So the grand claimââWe must slow AI capability advancementââis not supported by the mechanisms he offers. What he can realistically slow is Anthropic and other large, law-abiding Western laboratories. That may buy those companies additional testing time, but it does not establish control over the global capability frontier.
The most questionable passage is his belief that export controls will widen Americaâs lead for three to five years. Perhaps they will impede Chinaâs largest training clusters, but they cannot prevent:
smuggling and remote access to foreign compute;
theft or leakage of model weights;
decentralized improvements to released models;
better algorithms requiring less compute;
secret government programs;
thousands of independent developers experimenting simultaneously.
And recursive self-improvement makes his proposal even less coherent. If AI substantially reduces the expertise and compute required to improve AI, development becomes more decentralized and harder to police, not easier.
Embedded evaluators may genuinely improve Anthropicâs internal discipline. Sandboxing, incident reporting and independent testing are sensible. But those are company-safety measures, not a workable mechanism for pacing worldwide technological progress.
There is also an obvious self-interested effect: Anthropic has enormous capital, compute access and leading models. Regulation restricting chips, training runs, distillation and new entrants would help freeze its present position. Whether or not Amodei sincerely fears catastropheâand I think he probably doesâhis prescription doubles as a formidable regulatory moat.
The honest version of his argument would be:
âAnthropic intends to advance more cautiously, and we want its principal competitors constrained sufficiently that caution does not cost us the race.â
That is understandable corporate strategy. Calling it a controllable global âpacing of the frontierâ is fanciful. The article itself ultimately admits that the cat cannot be put back in the bag; it merely proposes placing supervisors beside the largest, most visible cats.