I help people use data to reduce crime. Associate Professor at @UCLCrimeScience. Former police officer.
Nottingham and London, UK
- Tweets 21,079
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Useful estimates in this paper of how long it takes for crimes of different types of be reported and recorded (🇺🇸), i.e. how long it takes for crime data to be 'stable' enough for research and analysis. For most types, >90% are reported within 14 days.
doi.org/10.1080/07418825.202…
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This paper finds the 'iron rule' that most crimes happen in a small number of places applies equally in an African city (Abuja, 🇳🇬) and when measured using data from a door-to-door survey rather than police data (which is limited by under-reporting).
doi.org/10.1057/s41300-026-0…
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Previous research has found sending offenders a letter can have a surprisingly big effect on behaviour, but this paper (🇳🇱) found that didn't work to prevent people texting while driving: the letter in this case had no effect on the chance of reoffending.
doi.org/10.1080/15614263.202…
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This paper (🇨🇱) finds more pedestrians (who are both 'eyes on the street' who might protect against crime, and potential targets of it) doesn't lead to any increase in theft until a critical crowd density is reached, after which theft rises sharply.
doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.ad…
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Large survey finds police in England and Wales say “ill-fitting, inconsistent or low-quality uniforms [undermine] confidence, pride and their ability to present a professional image”.
I doubt 46 forces each having slightly different uniforms helps.
doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azag062
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Introducing fixed automatic number plate recognition cameras was associated with decreases in motor-vehicle theft, an increase in the proportion of vehicle thefts that were solved and with stolen vehicles being recovered by police slightly faster.
doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.0d…
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This paper argues police efforts to improve internal equity, diversity and inclusion (e.g. by implementing procedural justice in disciplinary matters) should be considered as investments in "legitimacy infrastructure" to improve public confidence.
doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.d7…
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Matt Ashby retweeted
Are you around Manchester on 7 October? We've invited Iain Brennan to deliver a public seminar at @CriminologyUoM titled “Focused deterrence: Evaluating America's most successful violence intervention in an English context”. Registrations:
eventbrite.co.uk/e/prof-iain…
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Matt Ashby retweeted
🗣️ INVITATION: Crime Science Workshop – From Foundations to Future Frontiers - mailchi.mp/sakraplatser/skra…
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In a lab experiment, witnesses viewed police officers (🇺🇸) as more professional and attentive when officers took notes in a paper notebook rather than on a smartphone.
Phones are obviously more useful, but may be a barrier between officers and public.
doi.org/10.1007/s11292-026-0…
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How much violence is there in London compared to the US? The Economist website covers our research on benchmarking crime in London against other global cities.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
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AI tools can be used to effectively help human police staff (🇬🇧) better identify potential markers of vulnerability (eg mental illness, substance misuse) in police call logs, but aren’t reliable enough to do that task alone.
crimrxiv.com/pub/p9l28bjj
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Increasingly 'corporate' organised crime groups (🇸🇪) use external 'contractors' and 'decoys' (often via specialist brokers) for gang killings and compartmentalise their activities to minimise the risks of detection.
Nice application of crime scripting: doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.44…
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Residents of neighbourhoods with very high violence (🇺🇸) who believed police act fairly and without racial bias were much more likely to say they’d give police information about a homicide, compared to residents who believe police are biased.
doi.org/10.1007/s12103-026-0…
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This seems like a pretty open-and-shut case of research misconduct. Certainly something we’d fail an undergraduate student for doing.
ALT "My understanding of English is improving daily," a Latin-American academic is quoted in one of Arday's papers. "Sometimes I struggle to articulate clearly and accurately what I would like to say to the healthcare professionals provided at university." There was just one issue. Three years prior, he had attributed the same quote to an Asian female undergraduate. It is one of numerous issues identified with his papers.
Pretty astonishing fresh evidence of research misconduct and fraud in Jason Arday's work, courtesy of @thetimes which has done splendid work. Free link. thetimes.com/article/0d48918…
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This new paper points out there’s lots of evidence of disparities in how policing affects different groups, but surprisingly little evidence of *why*. It’s very easy to jump to conclusions, but it’s unlikely any one explanation tells the whole story.
doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.b7…
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Matt Ashby retweeted
Since 1970, 154 people have had their convictions for murder overturned. If the death penalty had existed, that is potentially 154 innocent people murdered by the Criminal Justice system. It is too unreliable to risk a death penalty.
evidencebasedjustice.exeter.…
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This detailed review of what we know about gun-shot detection systems (eg Shot Spotter) explains how thin evidence of their effectiveness is, despite them having been studied quite a lot and police (🇺🇸) spending a lot of money on them.
doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.ef…
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A useful summary of ways in which generative AI tools can be used to support intelligence analysis relating to protecting high-profile individuals, and some of the challenges.
doi.org/10.1111/lcrp.70054
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