$INTC continue looking good pre-market. LFGGGG

$INTC Holiday tomorrow but looking to rally hard on Tue Feels chip stocks are going to come back. At current level risk reward is very favorable. $1m invested - Let's see how it goes

Building some positions in $RKLB Smells some bulls here...Might be soon break out above

$INTC Holiday tomorrow but looking to rally hard on Tue Feels chip stocks are going to come back. At current level risk reward is very favorable. $1m invested - Let's see how it goes

AI Is Not a Product Cycle The AI bears have a simple story: demand is not there, while the industry is building far too much capacity. Their latest exhibit is Big Tech’s roughly $ 3T of commitments for chips, data centres, power and leases. Because those items appear in SEC-filing footnotes rather than as current balance-sheet liabilities, they are presented as evidence of hidden excess and impending financial distress. This is sloppy. An obligation disclosed in an SEC filing is not hidden. It is disclosed. Nor is an item kept off the balance sheet under prevailing accounting rules automatically a concealed liability, an accounting abuse or a fraud. A future purchase commitment is not a bond coming due. An uncommenced lease is not unpaid debt. Calling everything “off balance sheet” is a useful way to make a large number sound sinister. It is not analysis. The question is straightforward: can these companies meet their obligations if AI demand weakens? That requires examining liquidity, payment schedules, termination rights, repricing provisions, asset redeployment, customer revenues and operating cash flow. A $ 3T gross number answers none of these questions. The danger, if there is one, is not in a footnote. It is in a funding cascade: contracts that cannot be deferred or reassigned, capacity that cannot be sold, and cash flows that no longer cover commitments. Show that mechanism. Show that the contracts are take-or-pay. Show utilisation is falling, prices are collapsing, enterprise adoption is stalling, or AI revenues are failing to cover the infrastructure bill. Until then, the bear case depends on one assertion: perhaps AI demand will not materialise. That is an unfalsifiable counterfactual, not an investment thesis. It cannot be disproved as stated because it provides no timeframe, measurable benchmark or identified constraint. It merely shifts the burden of proof: rather than demonstrate that demand is deteriorating, it demands that investors prove a demand shortfall can never occur. Any emerging technology can be made to look reckless under that standard. The burden should instead sit with those predicting a bust. They should identify the source of it: falling utilisation, collapsing compute prices, slowing adoption, weak AI revenue or a real economic limit on the work AI can perform. The implicit claim is more radical still: that the global economy is nearing saturation in its demand for compute. Governments have automated enough. Industry has extracted the available efficiencies. Businesses have delegated the tasks worth delegating. Consumers have discovered all the value they will find in cheap, programmable intelligence. This is not scepticism. It is an astonishingly confident forecast of technological exhaustion. AI is not a product cycle. It is the construction of an infrastructure layer for programmable intelligence. A chatbot is constrained by human attention. An agent is constrained by the scale of global economic activity. Compute is becoming a utility. The $ 3T is not proof that the world has bought too much intelligence. It is proof that it is preparing to use far more.

It is getting hard to see where the memory bears are even coming from after today. In a single day, Apple and Microsoft both raised hardware prices and blamed the same thing. Memory. $AAPL raised prices on Macs, iPads, and even the Vision Pro, with some models jumping 15 to 25%. They said it plainly, the cause is the unprecedented surge in memory and storage costs from AI data center demand. Apple, the company with more supply chain power than anyone on earth, finally could not absorb it anymore. Then $MSFT raised Xbox console prices, $100 on the 512GB and $150 on the 1TB, effective August 1. And buried in their statement was the number that should end the bear debate. Xbox said console storage and memory prices have increased more than 2.5x, and they expect them to double again by the fall of 2027. The companies actually buying the memory are telling you prices have already 2.5x’d and are set to double again next year. That is not a forecast from a bull on Twitter. That is Microsoft, writing it down, while raising prices to deal with it. Stack it up. Apple raising prices. Microsoft raising Xbox prices. Sony already raised the PS5. Samsung and Dell raising too. DRAM and NAND up over 300% since 2023. Micron exited consumer memory entirely to feed AI customers. New fabs do not arrive until 2027. The entire bear case rests on memory being cyclical and rolling over. But every buyer in the market is raising prices because they cannot get enough, the makers are sold out and signing multi year contracts, and the biggest console maker on earth just told you to expect another doubling in 2027. Where exactly is the roll over coming from? When Apple and Microsoft raise prices on the same day because of memory, the pricing power lives entirely with the people who make it.

$AAPL is planning a major Mac silicon shift, per Bloomberg: base M6 chips as early as this year, but no high-end M6 Pro/Max. Apple will instead move top-end Macs to AI-focused M7 Pro/Max chips in 2027, with M7 Ultra planned for 2028.

SK Hynix ADRs are scheduled to list on Nasdaq on July 10.

Claude Fable 5 (Mythos 5 with safeguards in place, same weights) It's available today, but only available as part of the Claude sub until June 22nd then it will cost extra at API rates. After that, it MAY come to subscriptions if capacity allows Anthropic to offer it.

The stock market is STILL overbought Decline towards the 40-week ma is likely outcome, time for caution over the next several weeks. $NDX $SPX

Introducing Alva’s FinTwit Alpha Leaderboard. We burned $100K tokens backtesting 3000+ FinTwit accounts and ranked who actually makes money. $1M in reward is going to the top accounts across all our leaderboards.