Here to learn + share perspectives. Portfolio Mgmt/Not Trader. Financial markets humble everyone eventually. Rarely on here But chatty whenever here.
Navigating The Blather-sphere
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Pick Your Spot2Fade $QQQ $SPY Bull Trap.
Hope $QQQ rises to 460 for My Fade.
Respect Season (see 2023 below) + Fundamentals
-or- Risk Mashed Potato Portfolio
Tide going out, poor time to surf $NDX $SPY. Market hopes rely on $NVDA + Jackson Hole. Good news fully priced in >> Any bad news means lookout below.
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🏈Risk Mgmt #1 Factor in Volatile Markets
$BABA waiting/watching
$FXI trend slowly bottoming/improving
Prefer2Wait4 Catalyst / Lower Risk Entry
🏈Game Strategy in High Volatility =
LowRisk w HigherPrice > HighRisk w Lower price
$BABA will generate $191 billion revenue in 2028 even if you assume just 10% annual revenue growth.
This is more than its current market cap. You are basically paying nothing for its 2029 revenue.
P/B is getting close to 1.
It’s the cheapest big-tech stock.
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Listen2Learn >> Uncle Warren Waiting4Selloff
Quoting Wise @TommyThornton below:
"If Warren Buffett is selling stocks and moving 1/3 of BRK to cash and slowing company buybacks, is he bullish?" (cannot retweet as account locked)
🏖️Avoid Bull Traps. Go2Beach🏖️
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👑$X.TO = royalty stream w moat👑
🎵 O Cozy Canada 🇨🇦🎶
🎵 Oligopolies choke innovation in
Banks $TD.TO $CM.TO $BNS.TO $NA.TO $BMO.TO
Telco $T.TO $BCE.TO
Exchanges $X.TO
🎶Politicians shamelessly self-deal $$$ 🎶
🎶Population Screwed
🎶but Patient investors 💰win💰 $X.TO
Only in #Canada can the stock exchange own a news/PR and regulatory filing service. Who in Canada blesses this as #verticalintegration (or, monopoly)? Anyone else in news/PR should just close shop and go home ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tm…
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End of Year Note MADE BAD CALL in May: 100% OUT of $BAYN $PFE. Luckily both were tiny positions. Every $BAYN quarter now feels like "kitchen sink" quarter... value trap. Future bad news looms for $PFE. Using $XLV $IHI for portfolio healthcare exposure.
Started tiny position $PFE to pair w tiny $BAYN pos. Thesis: Hold out of favor solid equities for long term cap gains. $BAYN faces kitchen sink bad news qtr w new CEO. Both face gen mkt June/July selloff. Plan2nibble 2% of portfolio total position each in selloffs.
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Slowly Accumulating $RYCEY on pullbacks for multiyear hold. $RYCEY Csuite executing seachange metrics. Plus SMR nuclear tech not in valuation. reuters.com/business/aerospa…
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Just watched disgusting "3 Little Pigs" (Presidents) of Harvard / U Penn / MIT Congressional testimony: AntiAmerican Hamas Cheerleaders. Pushing AntiMeritocracy, AntiSemitic, AntiHuman Garbage. True Nosferatu 1922 (film) level horror.
“Poison Ivy League” - new Shrubstack piece out
I didn’t want to write this piece but I had to.
Because if we don’t call “them” out, we risk becoming “them”.
@BillAckman @vitaliyk @howardlindzon @wolfejosh
open.substack.com/pub/shrubb…
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Remembering True Heroes. FDNY. NYPD. United Airlines Flight 93. First Responders. And all the everyday ordinary people who were Heroes that day. For the many Beloved Lost, you are missed every moment.
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Tide going out, poor time to surf $NDX $SPY. Market hopes rely on $NVDA + Jackson Hole. Good news fully priced in >> Any bad news means lookout below.
Get ready for yet another backward revision tomorrow, except this one might end-up being quite meaningful. Tomorrow BLS will report the annual revision of it’s survey-based reported employment numbers for the 12 months to March, squared against actual facts (QCEW : Quarterly Census Employment & Wages). What’s half a million among us friends anyway!
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Heard *awful* China financial news past 6+months from my own on-the-ground sources. @UrbanKaoboy brilliant must-follow, especially if you disagree w him. Dare to consider forests beyond usual narrative trees.... avoid $XLE dogma... and perhaps dodge a major market woodchipper.
It's hard to predict where Future Demand will be, but that is why we must not get lost in the Oil Weeds and must pay attention to broader Macro:
What are other Procyclical Commodities doing?
What is the USD Wrecking Ball doing?
What are Global Economic Indicators doing?
Hints:
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Not smart enough to call a top. But I do sleep better at night with some $SPY PUT insurance. Not investment advice. Only portfolio insurance. Trimming >> Cash 50%+ of portfolio...cash goes into things like $BIL $SGOV so can sleep at night and see family in August.
*DANGER, WILL ROBINSON* My signals flash toppy $SPY Maybe false alarm but buying $SPY Oct 425 PUT insurance (insuring portfolio only, *not* taking position) in case. Advise caution here.
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