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The move from illustration to photography made us aesthetically poorer than anyone now remembers.
Another priceless thing lost counting pennies.
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While people lament that ‘there are no moats left’, remember that skilled trades and social care still have plenty. This is the future you cheered on.
San Francisco’s addiction to SF masterworks let it abstract away the politically untenable decades before robotics catches up.
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Everybody wipes out once, the response afterwards is what separates market participants. Leopold reentering the market so soon after his wipeout confirms he doesn’t possess the right temperament.
Leopold Aschenbrenner might genuinely be the unluckiest motherfucker alive.
After getting absolutely destroyed in July and being forced to liquidate much of his AI portfolio, he reportedly came back swinging in early September, buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options premium.
Look at how those stocks have performed since September 8:
$CRWV: -37.4%
$SKHY: -25.8%
$SNDK: -23.8%
$DRAM: -22.9%
$BE: -18.1%
$INTC: -9.4%
$AMD: +9.1%
Six out of seven are underwater, with an average decline of roughly 18.6%.
And remember, we're talking about someone who reportedly rebuilt exposure through leveraged options, not just common shares.
Imagine surviving a massive forced liquidation, watching your favorite stocks recover, deciding it's finally safe to get back in, and then getting hit by ANOTHER brutal selloff barely a month later.
The worst part about options is that you can be absolutely right about the long-term AI infrastructure thesis and still lose a fortune because your timing was wrong.
I genuinely feel for the guy.
The market has absolutely no mercy.
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Too much SF discussion of taste focuses on the role of the practitioner. Taste is the ability to discern, cultivated through the refinement of perception. Engagement and interaction with work matter more to developing taste than doing the work, though doing certainly helps.
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Writing in an age where no one reads and drawing in an age where a computer will do that for you too.
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Westerners have lost the ability to distinguish the primary from the secondary, the higher from the lower, the central from the peripheral. The question of our time may just be the question of order.
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People seem to think they’ll still outperform the market stock picking, even when every market participant has access to a 160IQ quant that doesn't sleep.
In that world, edge shifts to private data, something retail investors don’t have.
Over the last 5 years, I've used every social investing product -- but they all tend to fail in one key spot:
Closing the gap between (a) your belief about the world and (b) how to express that belief with stocks.
Mike reached out early in the summer and showed me @Supertake, which solves this problem in the most fun way possible: prompt with AI and it constructs a portfolio around your belief.
With the declining cost of intelligence, we're going to see much more sophisticated investing styles emerge that was previously reserved only for hedge funds.
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.toml retweeted
Finally got Astra to access my NYT game subscription, open Wordle and solve it the second it’s released. Used to do it over morning coffee but now I get that time back for Connections
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Sprezzatura: The ability to make something difficult look effortless.
Beautiful Italian word. A direct translation suggests detachment, but its meaning is closer to natural grace.
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.toml retweeted
Not sticking to one. A few books that rewired my brain: Orthodoxy (Chesterton), Understanding Media (McLuhan), Truth and Method (Gadamer), Saving the Appearances (Barfield), Violence and the Sacred (Girard), The Master and his Emissary (McGilchrist).
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much like voice notes strike people as a disgrace because 'they take less effort to produce than to consume', so it is with AI "writing". you must understand that when i read text coming from you, I'm trying to understand what YOU mean. the only way you would be satisfied with having a text generator tell ME what YOU mean is with a 'eh, close enough' attitude. if I ask you what YOU meant with a sentence, or a word, who is going to answer? just imagine my question going back through to the text generator, and it actually realizing "huh I guess I don't know what my prompter meant with this" and asking YOU, back, what you meant.
you must see how this has introduced an unnecessary intermediary, there's now MORE distance between ME and YOU. i understand that it is DIFFICULT to cast the language spell well enough that you read back what you just wrote and say "yes this is actually not a pale reflection of the vibrant pyroclasm of my interiority, there's an actual structural affinity between what's in here and what is now out there, in front of me". that is a hard skill to master, perhaps the hardest, it comes from a lot of practice and inner monitoring, but it is POSSIBLE to not be embarrassed by your lack of verbal dexterity. just read the thing you yourself wrote, read it back, "is this true? is this the right word?" you need to palpate everything, you need to obsess over it. this is not neuroticism, neuroticism is not excessive care, neuroticism is *misplaced* care, and any amount of care, when misplaced, is excessive. if something is infinitely important then no amount of care is excessive, if anything no amount is ENOUGH.
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