Bearing the brunt of the bond sell-off? #France: 10-year OAT yields up 150bps since the Hormuz crisis. Fiscal fragility & thin liquidity amplify risks to the French economy and Eurozone bond markets ahead of the 2027 elections #FrenchEconomy #BondMarkets tinyurl.com/bdd298tp

Go get ‘em tiger

.@Lagarde: "I want to have the freedom of speech, the freedom of engage in matters that are not related to monetary policy [...] in many corners of the World, not only Europe".

I have just informed my colleagues that I will step down as @ECB President on 7 February 2027. It has been a source of great pride to serve this institution. I thank all of those who have supported me on this journey over the past seven years.

Bloomberg: "A new anxiety is gripping Wall Street as it bankrolls the vast network of data centers and chips behind the artificial intelligence boom: Early signs suggest that the credit market is approaching the limits of how much more debt it can absorb. One after another, yields are soaring into the double digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout. Bankers are finding it more difficult to offload risk to insurers and other investors." #economy #markets #debt #ai #ArtificialIntelligence #bonds

US financial stability increasingly relies on public backstops. #Fed and #Treasury interventions buy time, but cannot reverse structural shifts pointing to higher #USTreasuries volatility, a weaker #USD and a greater role for gold: tinyurl.com/53t85vjh

It was great to be on @BloombergTV this morning to talk about the #Fed with @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 and @annmarie! Thank you for having me! youtube.com/watch?v=42SaCJ3f…

We should have long ago also used the retail channel like Italy but the lobbies opposed. Any good parent investor now would love to buy 10y treasury at 5% for their kids, if you ask me.

At these multiples, we need either record valuations to last another decade or earnings growth we have seen only twice since 1880 for US equities to beat TIPS over the next decade. Just to harvest a small equity premium. thetwocents.substack.com/p/t…

#GlobalInsolvencies rise 5% in 2026, the 4th consecutive annual increase. The US leads at +12%; 376 major firms failed in 9M, putting 2.7mn jobs at risk annually in 2026–27. #CorporateRisk tinyurl.com/2z2hyj4r

Crazy market over reaction to Lula’s reelection.

Maybe because it has been going on for too long now? 😂

I like exact datation like these…

The US is pulling ahead in #AI adoption: 55% use AI weekly, versus 48% across the six European countries surveyed. Workplace training also lags: 30% in the US vs 17% in Europe. Can Europe close the #AI preparedness gap? Latest findings: #AllianzPulse2026 tinyurl.com/4s56rbhu

People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable. Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country. US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile. And our economy doing better than most!

⚠️BREAKING: *ANTHROPIC PUBLICLY FILES FOR NASDAQ IPO UNDER SYMBOL $ANT *ANTHROPIC $80.7B NET LOSS FOR SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2026

GOLDMAN: “.. we are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector. .. the share of US firms that have adopted AI in regular business functions now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth ..”

A highly significant development with implications that go well beyond the meetings in Tehran. For #Tehran, the Mecca Agreement was an important development in its own right. It reflected a growing recognition among regional states that they need to diversify their security partnerships rather than rely exclusively on the United States. This is part of a broader effort to develop a more independent regional security architecture. The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant. It reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime but also an understanding that Iran remains a central regional player whose influence cannot simply be ignored. This is particularly relevant to Iran's relationships with the members of the so called "axis of Resistance", especially the Houthis, even though Tehran's actual control over Houthi decision-making is considerably more limited than many assume. Against the backdrop of a possible resumption of hostilities between Iran and the United States, these meetings are especially important. Gulf states understand that they could pay a devastating price for another war, particularly through attacks on energy infrastructure, ports, and maritime trade. They therefore have a clear interest in encouraging Tehran to moderate its demands while reassuring the Iranian leadership that the Mecca Agreement is not directed against Iran or its interests. There is no contradiction between strengthening regional security cooperation and engaging diplomatically with Iran. In fact, these are two sides of the same strategy: building greater security independence and deterrence while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of confrontation through dialogue. The meetings also highlight an important reality that Washington and Jerusalem should not overlook: even countries deeply concerned about Iran's regional ambitions do not necessarily support another military campaign against it. They understand the limitations of military force and recognize that another war, regardless of its intensity, is unlikely to eliminate the Iranian challenge. It could, however, inflict enormous damage on their economies and regional stability. There is also a broader message for Washington. America's regional partners are increasingly pursuing their own interests, developing independent security arrangements, and maintaining channels of communication with Tehran. Their priorities do not necessarily align with those of Washington, and certainly not with those of the Israeli government. None of this means that the profound differences between Iran and its neighbors have disappeared, or that these diplomatic efforts will necessarily succeed. But it does reflect an important strategic reality: regional governments increasingly recognize that Iran cannot be bombed out of the Middle East, and that any sustainable regional security architecture will eventually have to take its interests and influence into account. The bottom line is that key regional players are increasingly looking for ways to prevent another war and establish a more sustainable security framework. That is a significant strategic development #IranWar #Iran #KSA #Pakistan #Turkey

Australia’s second-biggest pension fund is buying French government bonds on the view that markets have overpriced France’s fiscal troubles and the prospect of European Central Bank interest-rate hikes. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Parabens Presidente Lula! 🇧🇷 #LulaPresidente

APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America. Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but remain flat for the S&P 493. Meanwhile, Gartner estimates $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment risk by 2030. The key takeaway: AI investment is booming, but returns outside Big Tech remain elusive.