Co-founder of ML Capital
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Meignin Guillaume retweeted
Many brokers are now reporting the massive $IMPP Suezmax sale:
2008-built Suez Protopia for $82m.
V V estimate was $74M, so over 10% higher.
No slowing down in the tanker market … it’s the biggest commodity asset needed right now.
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$CHRD selling its non-operated Marcellus position to POSCO for 550M. Effective July 1, closing expected in Q4.
Key points:
- ~32k net acres, ~121 MMcfpd of 100% residue gas
- Sold at ~6x EBITDA while CHRD trades at ~2.3x
- Oil weighting rises 4-5 pts to ~62%
- Net leverage falls further, 550M to redeploy
This is exactly the right move. The Marcellus was the odd asset from the Enerplus deal, non-operated and gas-weighted in a company whose entire case is oil concentration.
Selling a low-multiple asset at 6x to buy back your own stock at 2.3x is textbook accretive capital allocation.
Post-deal Chord is a pure-play Williston operator, more oil-weighted, stronger balance sheet.
Don’t see how this could not be accretive to the company. Hope it will increase buybacks.
investing.com/news/company-n…
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$HBR.L Barclays agrees last week transaction was a clear positive. They see 50% upside to 420p.
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Reviewed the 5 names I wrote up in 2026 now that Q2 numbers are in. 4 green, 1 flat.
The book is +17% equal weight, dividends included, and all 5 theses are still intact.
Best call was$SHIP at +33%. Also covered $IMPP $CHRD $PDEX $HBR.L
A Q2 review landing in Q3… owning shitcos means late filings.
Full breakdown below.
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$IMPP Q2 results, verdict first. Very strong quarter, thesis is playing out.
Revenue came in at 87.1M$ ,an all time high. Net income of 34.8M$ was the second best quarter in company history.
H1 net income of 62.8M$ already exceeds the entire 2025 result.
My EPS estimate came in slightly high. The miss was almost entirely drydocking. Six vessels were drydocked in Q2 costing 7.5M$ against the 2M$ I had modelled, dragging operational utilisation down to 73.5%.
Management was clear on the call this was deliberate. Those vessels are now back at full efficiency. Seven more drydockings are planned for H2 which will continue to weigh on utilisation.
The buyback story is worth highlighting. Across the old and new programs combined, IMPP deployed 10.6M$ in share repurchases in H1, with a significant chunk quietly executed in Q2.
No new program has been announced yet and management did not mention it once on the call. They are buying back stock at roughly 40 cents on the NAV dollar without drawing attention to it.
On valuation it remains extremely attractive. Current cash sits at approximately 260M$ against a market cap of roughly 249M$ at 5.60$. Cash per share is approximately 5.84$, above the stock price. You are buying the cash at a discount and the fleet of 21 vessels comes free. That fleet is valuable. Suez Enchanted, a nearly 20 year old ship, just sold for 48M$ generating a 32M$ gain.
Q3 setup is strong. The 32M$ Enchanted gain lands entirely in Q3, adding approximately 0.70$ to EPS on its own before any operating earnings. Suezmax rates have been very strong since the ceasefire ended in July and their fleet of small bulkers are generating good CF right now. Expecting another strong quarter.
One thing to watch. The warrant wall at 6.30$ is now only 12% above the current price. 19 million warrants at that strike create natural resistance as the stock approaches that level. Near term ceiling to keep in mind.
The thesis is intact. Not financial advice, size accordingly.
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$HBR.L We can add that when annualising current open market buyback pace they’re buying back 8.5% of the outstanding shares.
This is on top of off market buybacks.
Very attractive at current price imo.
So lets get this straight. BASF sells 133 million shares in Harbour Energy today at a 4.2% discount to yesterdays close and HBR buys back 53M of those shares.
This overhang of BASF selling is very well known.
Lol, why is HBR.L weak vs peers today???
uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ha…
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$PDEX up 18% today, 15% since write-up.
FY26 print confirms the call from my June writeup: as the next-gen handpiece ramped, Q4 gross margin snapped back to 35% (from 20% a yr ago), operating income +163%, sales +17% to 20.4M$.
New Deep Dive : $PDEX screens at 14x earnings. It isn't cheap. And I'm still long. Here's why.
Strip the one-time Monogram gains and you're paying low-20s for a micro-cap that's 79% one customer. On paper, a pass.
Except two things the screen doesn't show:
1. That one customer just signed minimum purchase volumes through 2027. The base is contracted.
2. Pro-Dex holds an exclusive, near-100%-margin royalty on a Zimmer Biomet robotic-knee system launching in 2027. A robotic-surgery annuity.
Management expects it to become customer #2.
If it scales, my base case is ~$100. If it doesn't, you paid a fair price for a contracted compounder.
You pay for the core and get the robot for free.
Long $PDEX. Not financial advice.
Deep dive in the comments ↓
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Meignin Guillaume retweeted
$HBR.L #HBR - BARCLAYS RAISES HARBOUR ENERGY PRICE TARGET TO 420 (400) PENCE - 'OVERWEIGHT'
you still buy for 259 - that's some chunky upside for a midcap
Goldman sneaking their $HBR.L target up to save face.
Judging by how bullish the other analysts on the earnings call were there will be more upgrades to follow… 💪
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$IMPP Here is my sensivity table for Q2 earnings due soon. I expect a blowout quarter.
My base case would be around 0.8$ and 1.5$ including the Suez Enchanted sale (I estimate a 31M$ gain).
They’re trading close to cash. I think stock will rerate.
I own a significant position. Not advice.
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$HBR.L On the call, management guided to 2B$ FCF at early-August TTF strip prices and European gas has kept climbing since.
They’re printing cash, and with a capital-return-focused allocation policy, buybacks should be sizeable.
Ideal scenario: they buy some of BASF’s stake below market.
$HBR.L reported H1 results today, three weeks after my write-up. Stock up ~7% to 248p on the print. Honest scorecard.
Delivered, and better than I modelled:
- 2026 free cash flow outlook raised to ~$1.8B (I used ~$1.4B). Management said on the call that at current strip prices, especially gas, it would be closer to $2B, and is guiding below that on purpose to stay conservative on a volatile gas price
- Record production of 509 kboepd, full-year guidance nudged up to 490-500.
- Net debt down to $5.4B / 0.7x, RCF refinanced to 2031.
Capital returns stepping up:
- Policy is to return 45-75% of free cash flow, with a ~$300M minimum dividend (16.10c per share).
- For 2026 that means at least $800m back to holders, $500M of it beyond the dividend
Buyback now live at $250M, with more to come
At 248p: ~32% equity FCF yield after hybrid coupons on the $1.8B guide (nearer 36% on the ~$2B management sees at strip), a ~15% cash-return yield, ~1.4x EV/EBITDAX.
Still to prove:
- Tax rate hasn't fallen yet (77%); the mix shift is a 2027+ story
- The upgrade leans on gas, which management itself flagged as more volatile than oil right now, so the strength can reverse
- BASF now just under 25% (from 47%), still an overhang, but Harbour is keeping the right to buy BASF's stake directly via off-market repurchases, so the buyback could mop it up without hitting the tape
Positive tail: CEO says early signals point to a more pragmatic new UK government on oil and gas.
Base case 365p vs 248p, ~47% upside. Not advice.
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I started writing my next article on $IAUX a few weeks ago. Of course, it then rallied almost 30%, so I now have quite a few sections to update...
Still some work to do, so this one will probably be out around mid-September.
I already own a significant position.
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$HBR.L Harbour started the announced buyback. Will support share price around 250p. It looks like they’re buying more under that price.
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$HBR.L With current Brent and TTF prices, they’re on a 2.5B$ FCF run rate.
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$CHRD Q2 update. When I published my Chord deep dive in May, I was modeling $103 WTI as the base case and $120 as the bull case. Strip is now pricing $75 for H2 and $70 for 2027. The macro thesis on Hormuz was far too optimistic than what played out.
The good news is the investment case does not collapse at these prices. Here is the math at actual strip.
H2 2026, strip prices average ~$75:
- H2 FCF: ~$562MM
- 75%+ return threshold confirmed for Q3 and Q4
- ~$422MM to shareholders in H2
- ~2.1MM shares retired at $131
- Annualized FCF yield: 15.5%
- Annualized capital return yield: 11.7%
2027, strip prices average ~$70:
- 84% of production unhedged
- Three-way collar floors at $64.80 provide downside protection, ceilings at $78.12 do not cap at $70 — full market exposure on those barrels
- FCF at strip: ~$990MM
- FCF yield: ~14% on current market cap, improving as share count declines
- Capital return at 75%: ~$742MM
- Capital return yield: ~10.5%
Buyback accretion:
At $131 and 2.3x EV/EBITDA Chord is buying its own assets at a discount to intrinsic value. Each share retired at these prices is permanently accretive to remaining shareholders. The 2026 to 2027 buyback program will have retired approximately 4MM shares from year end 2025 levels by end of 2027, a 7% reduction in float at trough prices.
The honest picture at strip:
The curve is pricing a world where the supply shock is fully resolved and oil grinds toward $68 by end of 2027. Even in that scenario Chord generates ~$1.55B of cumulative FCF in H2 2026 and 2027 combined, returns ~$1.16B to shareholders, and enters 2028 with a near-zero net debt balance and a structurally lower cost structure from the 4-mile program.
At $131, I still think this is could generate a good IRR. Not advice.
$CHRD New deep dive just dropped.
Chord Energy generates a 28$ FCF yield in my base case scenario.
Link in first comment 👇🏻.
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$HBR.L reported H1 results today, three weeks after my write-up. Stock up ~7% to 248p on the print. Honest scorecard.
Delivered, and better than I modelled:
- 2026 free cash flow outlook raised to ~$1.8B (I used ~$1.4B). Management said on the call that at current strip prices, especially gas, it would be closer to $2B, and is guiding below that on purpose to stay conservative on a volatile gas price
- Record production of 509 kboepd, full-year guidance nudged up to 490-500.
- Net debt down to $5.4B / 0.7x, RCF refinanced to 2031.
Capital returns stepping up:
- Policy is to return 45-75% of free cash flow, with a ~$300M minimum dividend (16.10c per share).
- For 2026 that means at least $800m back to holders, $500M of it beyond the dividend
Buyback now live at $250M, with more to come
At 248p: ~32% equity FCF yield after hybrid coupons on the $1.8B guide (nearer 36% on the ~$2B management sees at strip), a ~15% cash-return yield, ~1.4x EV/EBITDAX.
Still to prove:
- Tax rate hasn't fallen yet (77%); the mix shift is a 2027+ story
- The upgrade leans on gas, which management itself flagged as more volatile than oil right now, so the strength can reverse
- BASF now just under 25% (from 47%), still an overhang, but Harbour is keeping the right to buy BASF's stake directly via off-market repurchases, so the buyback could mop it up without hitting the tape
Positive tail: CEO says early signals point to a more pragmatic new UK government on oil and gas.
Base case 365p vs 248p, ~47% upside. Not advice.
Harbour Energy $HBR.L is the largest independent oil producer listed in London.
Most people still file it as a tired North Sea play. It hasn't been that for two years.
Here's the setup, and why I'm long. 🧵👇(Full deep dive in the first comment.)
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After buying Wintershall Dea and LLOG's US Gulf business, Harbour pumps close to 500,000 barrels a day across five countries.
$12.80 to lift a barrel. Investment grade.
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It's cheap for two reasons the market has right.
Norway and the UK tax the marginal barrel at 78%. And 2027 free cash flow dips.
Both are real. Neither is the whole story.
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The 2027 dip isn't damage. It's a payment schedule.
Norway collects its tax in instalments, so a strong 2026 gets partly settled with 2027 cash. Revenue is fine. The calendar just goes out of phase with the barrel.
Harbour's own presentation calls it "the tax lag effect."
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The bigger picture is the tax rate itself.
Every barrel Harbour adds is taxed at 23% in the US Gulf, far below the 78% North Sea.
Price the company at a flat mid-cycle deck and free cash flow still climbs from ~$0.6bn to ~$1.0bn in two years.
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Then there's why it's cheap right now, and it has nothing to do with the business.
Shareholders who took stock as payment for assets have been dumping it. BASF has gone from 46.5% to under 25%. EIG cleared its entire remaining stake at 205p.
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Where that leaves it:
~$9 per barrel of reserves in the ground, vs $19 for Ithaca and $21 for Aker BP
~1.5x cash operating profit
~13% distribution yield while you wait
Below every published price target
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The honest risk, which I lead with in the piece rather than bury:
The whole sector may stay cheap regardless. If that de-rating is structural, this is a value trap and I'm wrong about all of it.
I don't think it is.
I also got oil badly wrong earlier this year. Picked an unhedged producer on a macro call and watched it break.
Which is exactly why I like this one. It's 60% gas, hedged, and nowhere near Hormuz.
It doesn't need me to be right about the barrel.
—
Full deep dive in the first comment.
The numbers, the tax mechanics, a proper valuation, and a full section on how I could be wrong.
Long and disclosed. Not advice.
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$SHIP Q2 update : the thesis is working faster than expected.
When I published the deep dive in May, I modeled $0.20/quarter dividend throughout the newbuild period.
Management just declared $0.35 for Q2. Record net income of $26.2M, adjusted EPS of $1.32.
Three things from Q2 that materially improve the risk/reward versus what I wrote:
- The three 2027 Hengli newbuilds now have confirmed multi-year charters. Floor rate $23,100/day covering cash breakeven, 100% to Seanergy up to $29,750, 50/50 profit share above that.
- The execution risk I flagged on 2027 delivery is largely resolved on those three vessels.
- Seanergy completed a €100M unsecured 5-year bullet bond at 4.90% with no amortization before 2031. Combined with $296.5M in secured facilities, the newbuild program is now substantially funded.
The 2027 capital bridge I spent considerable time stress-testing in the article looks much more comfortable than it did at Q1.
The program itself expanded to 8 vessels and $591M . Post-delivery fleet becomes 26 vessels with 4.76M DWT. Two additional Japanese-built Capesizes added for 2029 delivery, including a 2022-built vessel, the youngest addition to the fleet by far.
Q3 guidance: approximately $31,000 TCE with 71% of days already fixed at $30,112. We are entering the seasonally strongest period of the year with the El Niño still developing.
The one open item from the original article remains: the Imabari NB2 (Q2-Q3 2027, $80.1M) has no confirmed financing yet.
Everything else I flagged as a risk is either resolved or tracking better than modeled.
Still long. Thesis intact.
Just dropped a new deep dive on $SHIP
• Pure-play Capesize exposure
• Trading at a 36% discount to NAV
• Structural tonne-mile demand growth from Guinea + Simandou
• Orderbook effectively locked until 2029/30
• Aging global fleet + CII constraints reducing effective supply
• Potentially record El Niño into Q4’26/Q1’27
The key point:
Demand is growing on the longest dry bulk routes in the world while supply cannot respond fast enough.
That’s the setup.
Seanergy owns 20 Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels today and has 6 modern scrubber-fitted eco newbuilds arriving directly into what could become an extremely tight market in 2027-2028.
Meanwhile:
• Q1’26 was one of the strongest seasonal Q1s in years
• Spot rates remain elevated
• The company trades at ~$14 vs ~$21.8 NAV
• Dividend yield ~5.7%
Risks are real:
• Aging fleet
• Freight rate mean reversion
• 2027 financing execution
• Concentrated governance
But at current pricing, I think the risk/reward is compelling.
Full deep dive below with:
- detailed fleet analysis
- Guinea & Simandou thesis
- Capesize supply dynamics
- El Niño wildcard
- valuation work
- 2026/2027 cash flow modelling
- risk section
Link in first comment.
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$HBR.L DNB estimates an average FCF above 1B/y for the next 5 years. This FCF yield is insane.
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