Nothing changing in VA as we've gone from 60k to 115k to 145k early votes. EV continues to look very blue, and isn’t just a matter of Democrats turning out more of their high-propensity voters faster--the low-propensity voters who have cast ballots so far look to be even bluer than the high-propensity voters.
As I said in my last post about VA, you can't make strong inferences from this type of data that's (1) this early in the in-person early vote process (2) from one state (3) from a state that doesn't have party registration but it's done nothing but harden my view that the floor for the GOP/ceiling for Dems from a turnout standpoint is truly unprecedented in modern elections. I think the 20th percentile outcome for the GOP in November is super, super ugly.
But it's always possible there's some effect that because GOP voters are so unenthusiastic right now but it's not like they're going to not turn out but rather will just vote later, especially low propensity ones (the large $$ investments Republicans are making in the next month can't hurt). To me the defining question of the next couple months may very well end up being something like "wow GOP turnout is terrible, especially low propensity GOP turnout, is it going to pick up the closer we get to election day/on election day or is it going to be a blowout?". In states like FL, TX, NC and GA where we are expect >2/3 of the votes to be cast before Election Day it's of course pretty hard to storm back right at the end, something that Andrew Cuomo learned very well in June 2025.
I'll note, the VA pattern is reasonably consistent with surveys asking people their enthusiasm with likely-voter screens showing a notably bluer electorate than registered-voter screens. I am not telling anyone this for the first time but at this point, I think a 2026 electorate that voted for Harris in 2024 looks very likely.
So, to be the bigger question is whether that electorate looks more like Harris+1 or Harris+6. That difference would have enormous implications on how things end up.