Spring '95. Tiger, still largely unknown outside golf circles, is in a study hall with many Stanford athletes. They exchange Spring Break destinations. Tiger: "Going to the Masters" Greg Comella (Stanford RB): "That's the toughest tix in sports! How?" Tiger: "I'm playing."

⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️/ 5 Great follow up to Trading Bases, this book uses the authors expertise in sports statistics and betting to predict podshop equity PM returns. This is a must for any allocator to hedge funds or folks interested in novel ways to look at performance. We’ll be using this as a guide to review fixed income mutual fund performance! @MagicRatSF, loved reading this one in one sitting.

Every single early-2000s NCAAF bettor today fondly lowers their head in memory of June Jones who presided over the greatest “last team on the board to get even for the day” squad any degenerate could ask for.

Brian leads a nice discussion here on models, probability and uncertainty. But I still think it misses a big point Shanahan is making. And the Jags decision to attempt a late 60-yard FG last Sunday, down 3, is a great example. The models said go for it, but those models assumed a league-average kicker makes the kick roughly 40% of the time. But Cam Little is not average and his coach knows that. If I were the coach, what I’d want to know is, “what % would Cam need to make the FG to flip the decision from “go for it” to “kick”? If it’s 55%-60%, I’m kicking! That, to my ear, is what Shanahan is getting at when he says 51/49 is not necessarily persuasive. I’d like more analysis like this from the football quants. Some recs (go for 2 late in the game down 8) have no context factors which can switch the recommendation, but a lot of 51/49s do.

How about we choose an example that hews much closer to his context-dependent comment: Before trying a life-risking maneuver, you're informed that an *average* F - 18 pilot will succeed 51% of the time. Do you attempt the maneuver?

Every single week this is the best creator content out there. I mean Coach 30 *NEVER* misses.

And this omits the most relevant fact of all when comparing multiples: In August 2004 (Google's IPO date) the 10-year discount rate was pegged to the US bond yielding 4.28%. Today the 10-year yield 5.28%. Yikes.

These moments are never not fantastic. Here's Steve Perry leading the Giants crowd in Don't Stop Believing during the 2014 playoffs. They only played it if the Giants were tied or behind -- otherwise it was Lights. (If there, I'd root for tie games.) youtu.be/y2N_7xB5_Q4?si=_p0x…

How in the name of Morton Andersen is this kick not good?

He has saved thousands of California acres from wildfires. The government is now increasing his labor costs by 400%, which could drive him out of business. This is Tim Arrowsmith's story:

Bohm’s not the first to hit a Phillies playoff HR in extra innings in Atlanta to take a 4-3 lead. youtu.be/SrZEVUIXeQU?is=SSI_…

If the betting markets are an indication, ratings will be shockingly low. Unlike the Ryder Cup which trounces a medium PGA event, the dropoff in betting volume from the Biltmore(!) one week ago to the President's Cup is steep. Prediction Mkts $, Biltmore -> Cup: $49.9M to $17.6M by Venue: @Kalshi $38.1M to $15.5M @PolyMarket (US) $9.6M to $1.2M @ProphetX $428k to $145k @Novig: $254k to $154k Definitely curious if ratings mirror drama or if betting interest is the better tell.

This is beautiful.

I walked by, stopped in, and checked the menu. Yup, just as @beatingthebook is always claiming, they’re all out of me.

My wife when I come home with the last Crisp Apple Olipop in the store.

Photo taken just a few weeks before 9/11. On the day itself, I worked in the tallest of the green-topped buildings, connected to the North Tower via a footbridge. As a portion of the Lehman trading floor got sheared off that morning, I never set foot in the building again.

Very few on here are old enough to have seen the 1972 Olympic Men's Basketball gold medal game, but rest assured, you just saw a repeat of it.

As life long sports bettors, don't you think it must kill Joe and @andrewssports and @ViewFromVegas and everyone else in the traditional sportsbook industry retweeting Jeff that for fellow sports bettors, prediction markets are vastly superior products to traditional sportsbooks.

It truly does astound me that in the States I can watch 7 games each Matchweek, live, with basic cable and yet when I visit my daughter in London I've yet to be in a hotel where a single game is accesable.

"I use a calculator when I do math." Yeah, this isn't differential calculus. This is as pathetic as a cashier using a calculator to make change for a $5 bill on a $4.30 purchase .