do you know this phenomenon where the brain suddenly enters this hyperactive state of activity before it dies? This is open source right now: euphoric, drug-like, high. It appears to be thriving because contributing is so easy now, everyone feels unblocked, many can finally do what they dreamed of many years ago, but they do not realize that the fundamental incentive structure has collapsed at the very same time. they are blinded by the fact that they can contribute and overlook that they will not receive anything in return anymore, because the fact that it was hard to contribute was the very reason people got anything in return for it at all. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
The effects of no longer having any long-term incentive are delayed, but eventually people realize that it is no longer like it used to be, where you got jobs, attention, reputation, opportunities, or some other form of return. You maybe still get some useless GitHub stars during this interim period, but once a critical mass of people realizes that the incentives are gone, I think it shuts down completely and in a very sudden way.
I saw people saying they do open source just for themselves, not for others, but I think they either lie to themselves or live in a dream world: if you genuinely do not want external human attention, feedback, recognition, or anything else in return, then there is literally zero point in publishing AT ALL, because you could equally well stay completely silent, keep everything private, and it would have zero effect on you. the human brain has been rewired by social media, GitHub, our economy etc. to be dependent on external feedback, and if you are one of the very few people who seriously do not need any external signal, then publishing should make no difference to you whatsoever.
open source as we know it does not work like that though, because maintaining software that other people actually use is fundamentally different from building something for yourself, and it now costs more than ever. Back in the day, the main thing you spent was your free time, and many, many people could afford to do that on the side, but now it also costs tokens, infrastructure, and increasingly real money, while at the same time there are fewer people in software engineering who can afford to contribute sustainably, which means the pool of people willing and able to keep doing this will collapse faster than you think