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The Open Ocean
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And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks
Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR)
Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return
Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%
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Marhelm retweeted
PADD 2 gasoline inventories have fallen to their lowest level on records that go back to 1990.
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$90m for a 17-year-old Suezmax.
Dynacom’s 150,000 dwt Karolos has reportedly been sold for around $90m. A Suezmax in the Med can be fixed at $372,600/day.
Just weeks ago, a 9-year-old Suezmax fetched <$100m.
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Iraq is paying up to move Basrah crude. SOMO widened October-loading discounts to $34.50/bbl for Basrah Medium and $37/bbl for Basrah Heavy, up from < $30/bbl for Aug–Sep cargoes.
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$55m for one VLCC voyage.
DHT’s DHT Gazelle fixed 270,000 tonnes from the Red Sea to South Korea at $55m, equivalent to about $634,000/day.
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The US is putting another 40M barrels of crude into play from the SPR, while Europe also prepares fuel reserve releases, more evidence that Hormuz has indeed normalized back to pre war flows.
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Capesize is ripping.
Rates are now >$50k/day, the highest since 2021. But the bigger story is tonne-miles: +4% in 2026, with Simandou potentially adding 45Mt of long-haul iron ore to China in 2027.
Then comes 2028: fleet growth ~4% vs demand ~1–2%.
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Iran is warning that if it cannot sell its oil, “no one” in the region will and that regional infrastructure will not be safe if its security isn't guaranteed.
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Saudi offshore drilling is scaling up.
Arabian Drilling won a $533m, 4-year KJO contract for 4 jack-up rigs, increasing its KJO fleet by 200%. Its backlog now stands at a record $4.8bn.
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VLCC ballasters to the Atlantic are still ~10% below pre-war averages.
At the same time, Eastbound ballasters are being pulled toward the Middle East. Less tonnage returning West + more ships tied up East = a very different VLCC supply picture.
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500bn+ tonne-miles could be coming to the Capesize market.
A proposed Central African iron ore corridor could move ~100mt/year through Cameroon’s Kribi port, adding 70–80 Capesizes.
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A US diesel export ban could erase 1.35 mb/d of clean-product exports equivalent to ~4 MR2 cargoes every day.
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New subscriber exclusive video interview with $GSL CEO Tom Lister on the outlook for container markets
DM for access
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